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originally posted by: corblimeyguvnor
originally posted by: Greggers
originally posted by: corblimeyguvnor
Probability says you are wrong,
No it doesn't.
1000 sample size from a population of 600 million?
The number of registered voters is about 146 million. If memory serves, a population of 146 million can be estimated with a random sample of just over 1,000 people with a 95% confidence level and a 5% margin of error.
hope you don't capability studies for a living ..... perhaps i should put the data into Minitab and get some "P" value or other "Quality" statistics
Or perhaps you should just stop talking out of your ass.
OK, remind me to not use your services when deciding on a new machine or process, unless i want to waste money
originally posted by: Greggers
originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Greggers
Pretty damned accurate, except for the fact that most media outlets played everything up through election night that it take a miracle for Trump to win.
I remember seeing the Hillary lovers on ATS gloating about how Hillary had the election all sewed up.
Yeah, mostly accurate. They just got one thing wrong.
Your're confusing the actual polls with the analysis. The polls were valid statistically, and generated an accurate result.
The national polls, which predicted the popular vote, predicted a Hillary win. Hillary did in fact win the popular vote. Some of those national polls got the percentage right on. Many others came remarkably close, and a huge percentage were well within the margin of error.
The polls were valid.
What was invalid was the assumption that the EC would follow the national vote. Although it's easy to see WHY that assumption was made, as that has almost always been the case.
I doubt they'll be making that mistake again.
originally posted by: tothetenthpower
a reply to: xuenchen
Yes and if the polls were favourable you'd all be lauding them.
~Tenth
originally posted by: butcherguy
originally posted by: Greggers
originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: Greggers
Pretty damned accurate, except for the fact that most media outlets played everything up through election night that it take a miracle for Trump to win.
I remember seeing the Hillary lovers on ATS gloating about how Hillary had the election all sewed up.
Yeah, mostly accurate. They just got one thing wrong.
Your're confusing the actual polls with the analysis. The polls were valid statistically, and generated an accurate result.
The national polls, which predicted the popular vote, predicted a Hillary win. Hillary did in fact win the popular vote. Some of those national polls got the percentage right on. Many others came remarkably close, and a huge percentage were well within the margin of error.
The polls were valid.
What was invalid was the assumption that the EC would follow the national vote. Although it's easy to see WHY that assumption was made, as that has almost always been the case.
I doubt they'll be making that mistake again.
It was clear in my post that I was speaking of the media analysis, so no confusion on my part.