Quake Watch 2017

a reply to: HollywoodFarmGirl

It doesn't happen in every case, like a lot of these earthquake prediction theories.
It is but one possible contributing factor "in some cases"
Nothing to stop you sleeping in your clothes with your running shoes on and a bag of essentials beside the bed if you want to.

further to: Canakkale, Turkey Swarm post by muzzy

Canakkale, Turkey Swarm, starting 6/02/2017 3:51UTC
timeline, interactive map, count summary

a reply to: muzzy

At least have the shoes and bag near the bed. Like Muzzy said, it can't hurt.

Sharing time:
This new Scientific American article talks about earthquake prediction.

The twist is that the researcher is using AI to sift the raw data, not the earthquake catalogues, looking for some previously unnoticed precursor. I think this is smart, because the catalog data only gives time, epicenter, magnitude, etc.
Maybe there is a slight change in the background coda (wiggles on the seismograms) over seconds or hours prior to a big quake, that has been overlooked?
I will try to keep up with this fellow's research.

Playing up again on the south west shores of Lake Taupo, west of Pukawa Bay, between Pukekaikiore and Kuhurua volcanic cones
59 events 18/02/2017 14:31:02-20/02/2017 03:45:58
mag~1= 18
mag1= 40
mag2= 1



also a decent aftershock of the Culverden 7.8 this afternoon
Public ID 2017p135277
Intensity strong
Universal Time February 20 2017, 1:16:07
NZ Daylight Time Mon, Feb 20 2017, 2:16:07 pm
Depth 24 km
Magnitude 4.8
Location 5 km north-west of Culverden
Latitude, Longitude -42.76, 172.83
www.geonet.org.nz...

Funny GFZ picked up this one

F-E Region: Off E. Coast of N. Island, N.Z.
Time: 2017-02-20 07:52:57.5 UTC
Magnitude: 5.1 (mb)
Epicenter: 179.65°E 37.61°S
Depth: 10 km
geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...
Geonet 4.7

but didn't post the one at Culverden, which Geonet says was bigger?

Magnitude 6.5 - Southern Bolivia

Location in IRIS Earthquake Browser

• Date-Time: Tuesday, February 21, 2017 @ 14:09:04 UTC
  
• Earthquake location: 19.287°S, 63.921°W,
  
• Earthquake depth: 596.2 km
  
• Event ID: us20008l41
  

Derived from Event Data Source: USGS
Powered by QVSData

Deep one

a reply to: Olivine

This is different from how scientists have attempted quake prediction in the past—they typically used processed seismic data, called “earthquake catalogues,” to look for predictive clues. These data sets contain only earthquake magnitudes, locations and times, and leave out the rest of the information. By using raw data instead, Johnson’s machine algorithm may be able to pick up on important predictive markers.

So I assume that he is going to use ALL available channels and that the computer knows precisely the path of the earthquake wave and all obstacles in its way from each instrument.

For example, if an artificial quake was going to hit in 20 seconds, the researchers could analyze the signal to accurately predict the event to within a second. “Not only could the algorithm tell us when an event might take place within very fine time bounds—it actually told us about physics of the system that we were not paying attention to,” Johnson explains. “In retrospect it was obvious, but we had managed to overlook it for years because we were focused on the processed data.” In their lab experiments the team looked at the acoustic signals and predicted quake events retroactively. But Johnson says the forecasting should work in real time as well.

You get more warning from the Japanese system at times.

Of course natural temblors are far more complex than lab-generated ones, so what works in the lab may not hold true in the real world. For instance, seismologists have not yet observed in natural seismic systems the creaking and grinding noises the algorithm detected throughout the lab simulations (although Johnson thinks the sounds may exist, and his team is looking into this). Unsurprisingly, many seismologists are skeptical that machine learning will provide a breakthrough—perhaps in part because they have been burned by so many failed past attempts.

A masterly understatement if I even saw one! One is not the least bit surprised that seismologists are sceptical. In addition to knowing the data detailed above it would also be necessary to know which areas were under stress and the precise nature of the rock/substrate at 5 or more kilometres depth so that sheer forces can be calculated and for all that it would have to be done continuously for every area of the world where quakes are likely to happen.

Picking one simulation is a lab is completely and utterly different from the complexity that would have to be mastered in the real world and the computing power that would be needed to do that would be stupendous. Then all you are going to get is 20 seconds?

if ifs and ands were pots and pans, there'd be no work for tinkers' hands

a reply to: ericblair4891

So, when I heard a dam was near failing, I knew it was no joke, and it could fail. It hasn't. But they knew there was danger and have ignored it.

Much scaremongering has been put out in the media about this. As I understand it the dam itself was not in any danger of failing, it was the spillway and the only possible danger was if the perimeter of the emergency spillway even further over ws to lose the concrete parapet. Neither of these events would have led to the failure of the dam which you can see quite clearly if you look at the layout of the dam. Spillway erosion may be considerable and costly to repair but dam failure it is not.

The media needs to be confined to talking about things which it has some knowledge of, in other words basically nothing.

I'm not in the mood to debate, so I'll agree with the majority of what Puterman and Muzzy have been saying about weather, and the dam. The weather does not always trigger earthquake events. And, for the most part the dam is sound. However, on that point, the area of the emergency spill is not exactly broad. Water is amazing and I would not rule out water finding a way deep under the emergency spillway. Without finding out what it's built ontop, I can't say how sound it is. A full break is doubtful, but they were smart to evacuate residents in case the emergency spillway lead to a partial burst. This is a big dam. Bigger than Hoover.

And for the weather. Man California is wet. I'm positive we will see major earthquakes coming. One atmospheric scientist said it's a series of rivers of precipitation that are falling on the west coast. Unless the overall pattern changes, much more water is on the way into spring. It's obvious to state that there are many changes on the surface. Sinkholes, mudslides, etc. These are the things we are seeing. No one knows exactly what is happening underground. Aquifers are recharging. We got changing pressure, changing density, and erosion which changes flows. We can't forget the changes that happened previously with agricultural and industry, and human consumption, on the aquifers. So, the system can be described as manic. It is swinging from one extreme to another. Very dry and under pressure of a vacuum as they sucked the water out through giant straws. Now the reverse. Now the earth's surface is thrusting water down into the earth through millions of straws. Energy. The water will release stress in rock and set off chain reaction.

Oh, and just to be a dick. I'm going to mention my moon. Once the aquifers recharge a bit (can't say how much) they will be influenced by the moon during the tides.

Also, I noticed Bolivia. It's inland. So, I thought let's look closer. Bolivia has been through a drought, in the last weeks, they have been hit with storms. Kinda like Cali. Here's a link

www.aljazeera.com...

I'm surprised I have time left. I just noticed "The Geysers" in California had a 4.2M.

Now, this can't be counted as natural can it? It's the Geothermal Power Plant? Anyhow, they are forcing water into the ground and causing earthquakes. It's my theme. My jam.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

a reply to: ericblair4891

The Bolivian quake was 597.6 km deep
that is tectonic, too deep for surface water to have any effect
any water would vaporize before getting to those depths

100 days since the Culverden 7.8 earthquake Situation in Wellington

18 businesses still excluded from their workplaces in the Tory St-Courtenay Place inner-city cordon

About 200 residents still forced out of their homes in the same area

80 buildings highlighted for further investigations, of which 18 have been granted extensions

2 cinemas closed

More than 13,600 quakes have been recorded since the Kaikoura quake*

4 quakes have measured magnitude 6.0 or greater since November 14*

GeoNet says there is now at 18 per cent chance of at least one quake measuring magnitude 6.0 occurring within the next month

*Figures correct as of Monday morning. Source: GeoNet.

i.stuff.co.nz...

Not sure about the "4 quakes have measured magnitude 6.0 or greater since November 14"
I got 3 off Geonet including the 7.8
Probably rounding off by the MSM.
I really think the media should do more research themselves, the third "6 or greater" is obviously the 2nd big aftershock, a 5.961ML north of Kaikoura 2hrs 20 minutes after the mainshock.
Maybe just splitting hairs
We felt all 4 of these.

a reply to: muzzy

No, I didn't look at the depth. It would not be surface water. So, you're right. And this is just a stupid thought. The only way water at the surface could trigger an earthquake at that depth would be the mass above pushing down and causing a rupture.

Okay, wait. If this is in which is far inland, how can if be a bit of old crust cracking? I get how some of the deep earthquakes happen if old crust is merging with the hot stuff deep down. But when it happens that far inland, i get what is the source. Oh, I don't want to learn. I haven't considered deep earthquakes very much.

"A deep-focus earthquake in seismology is an earthquake with a hypocenter depth exceeding 300 km. They occur almost exclusively at oceanic-continental convergent boundaries in association with subducted oceanic lithosphere. They occur along a dipping tabular zone beneath the subduction zone known as the Wadati–Benioff zone."

So, I must be wrong is assuming action is happening further out to sea. It's 600 km inland. I just check some images and they show the diving slab at different angles. I suppose the slab could reach that far.

a reply to: ericblair4891

It is a classic 'subduction' or 'lensing' zone pattern.

See this where red are the deep earthquakes

a reply to: muzzy

What an understatement that post was
The swarm now exceeds 300 in number.
Anyone else manage to grab the RATZ seismograph off Geonet for yesterday?
I forgot about this swarm and was too tired after work yesterday.
I got today's.





I thought I would check Geonet News and see if they had it, na they did the same as me, missed the middle days siesmo
they have the same seismographs I have saved, only their are a few hours earlier time stamped.
first mention
update of the swarm 20th NZDT
update this morning

I never read these until now, honest, I got my info from using Putermans QVS Datapro, which gathers the network data.

Hi
Is there any concern for PNW? Regarding quakes and / or volcanoes
There appears to be over 200 small tremors in past 24 hrs.
www.pnsn.org...
I live near Vancouver BC
Thanks

a reply to: violet

We are always concerned for the PNW, but those look like background seismicity to me.

a reply to: muzzy

They are reporting quakes off Vancouver Island and Seattle on the news this morning, both in the 4+ range.

originally posted by: AlexanderM
a reply to: muzzy

They are reporting quakes off Vancouver Island and Seattle on the news this morning, both in the 4+ range.

It has my attention right now, seeing as I live in downtown Seattle... I hope this activity isn't building up to something large..

www.pnsn.org...

a reply to: jhn7537

I'm in the North End of Tacoma. I just barely felt the M4.2 last night. Like you, I'm hoping that a larger quake isn't in our near future.

I suggest using these small quakes as a reminder, as I did. Go over plans with your family*.
Grab another case or two of bottled water and shove it in the bottom of a closet. Make sure you have medicines and pet supplies, flashlights, batteries, a 1st aid kit, and non-perishible foods...you know the drill.

Then go about your day in this beautiful area.

Yup, just checking in from near the 4.2 here...
Definitely a reminder.
I was hoping to see our all star PNW seismologists commenting by now.