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This is different from how scientists have attempted quake prediction in the past—they typically used processed seismic data, called “earthquake catalogues,” to look for predictive clues. These data sets contain only earthquake magnitudes, locations and times, and leave out the rest of the information. By using raw data instead, Johnson’s machine algorithm may be able to pick up on important predictive markers.
For example, if an artificial quake was going to hit in 20 seconds, the researchers could analyze the signal to accurately predict the event to within a second. “Not only could the algorithm tell us when an event might take place within very fine time bounds—it actually told us about physics of the system that we were not paying attention to,” Johnson explains. “In retrospect it was obvious, but we had managed to overlook it for years because we were focused on the processed data.” In their lab experiments the team looked at the acoustic signals and predicted quake events retroactively. But Johnson says the forecasting should work in real time as well.
Of course natural temblors are far more complex than lab-generated ones, so what works in the lab may not hold true in the real world. For instance, seismologists have not yet observed in natural seismic systems the creaking and grinding noises the algorithm detected throughout the lab simulations (although Johnson thinks the sounds may exist, and his team is looking into this). Unsurprisingly, many seismologists are skeptical that machine learning will provide a breakthrough—perhaps in part because they have been burned by so many failed past attempts.
So, when I heard a dam was near failing, I knew it was no joke, and it could fail. It hasn't. But they knew there was danger and have ignored it.
18 businesses still excluded from their workplaces in the Tory St-Courtenay Place inner-city cordon
About 200 residents still forced out of their homes in the same area
80 buildings highlighted for further investigations, of which 18 have been granted extensions
2 cinemas closed
More than 13,600 quakes have been recorded since the Kaikoura quake*
4 quakes have measured magnitude 6.0 or greater since November 14*
GeoNet says there is now at 18 per cent chance of at least one quake measuring magnitude 6.0 occurring within the next month
*Figures correct as of Monday morning. Source: GeoNet.
originally posted by: AlexanderM
a reply to: muzzy
They are reporting quakes off Vancouver Island and Seattle on the news this morning, both in the 4+ range.