Climate change is real: Just ask the Pentagon

a reply to: Fowlerstoad

Ugh ... I said 'if the sun cools'. That makes me sound idiotic. I meant 'if solar output decreases' hah

SO yeah, climate changes seems guaranteed, but maybe we won't know what direction the change goes until after it happens. *Too Late*

originally posted by: network dude
a reply to: jrod

If C02 were to drop 10%, would that equate to a 10% drop in global temperature?

Are there any factors in nature that drive C02?

Is C02 the sole proponent in temperature rise?

How does C02 affect stronger or weaker storm seasons?

I sure hope you can answer those simple questions.

No. Yes. No. It's much more complicated than that but generally more energy in the weather system from higher temperatures makes more potential for strong storms and gradients but the details matter as well.

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: jrod

That is not how this works....

So, let me get this right... increasing carbon dioxide levels lead to increasing global temperatures, but falling carbon dioxide levels do not lead to decreasing global temperatures.

They do but it is not 10% CO2 concentration to 10% temperatrure change. Otherwise we would be at a 40% higher absolute temperature than before, and we would have been vaporized and the Earth a lifeless dry rock.

To give you an idea of the sensitivity of Earth to global average temperature: the current global average temperature is 287 Kelvin. In the depth of a strong Ice Age it is about 6 degrees less, i.e. 2% lower in temperature.

During that Ice Age, the glaciers were one mile thick in New York, and agriculture impossible except for a few small parts of the globe.

Now do you see why what seems to be like a small climate change in the upward direction of similar magnitudes is so alarming to scientists? A Heat Age could be catastrophic to successful continuation of developed human civilization.

originally posted by: network dude
actually, I'm trying to make several points here. First off, being a dick to those who engage in discussion with you is not a good move. Second, we don't know as much as we think we know about climate change. There are lots of factors involved that we don't have the ability to measure. So the high horse, might not be the best seat in the house.

What we do know about climate change, and what we are able to measure is now substantial. And evaluating the quality and comprehensiveness of the physical evidence is something to be done by the scientists who have worked on it for decades.

At one point, in the 1960's and 1970's, the problem was recognized as important potentially but the scientific community also recognized that there was not sufficient theoretical understanding and experimental measurements to be confident to make predictions. As a result of work and time, that is different now.

a reply to: mbkennel

An intelligent answer. I asked the question to see if jrod could answer it.

The thing is, we do not know the relationship between carbon dioxide levels and average global temperature. It's a safe bet it's not linear, meaning there is no coefficient to describe the relationship. Beyond that, it's all educated (hopefully) guesswork. The models are not complete; even the papers describing them say so. Without accurate, proven models, no one can say with certainty what the effect of minor rises in carbon dioxide levels will be. Even more so, no one can say with certainty what the effect of rising global temperatures will actually be. We have no records on which to compare, unlike global cooling.

I base my lack of concern on several factors: an understanding of how energy interacts with matter, general knowledge of the oxygen/carbon dioxide cycle, the actions of those who both support and stand to profit from Global Warming prevention schemes, conditions under which data is collected/verified, and the status of predictions made. All those things tell me that the hysteria surrounding Global Warming is just that - hysteria.

The science may be sound, but the hype surrounding it and predicting gloom and doom? Not so much IMO.

TheRedneck

The title of this thread should be "The US Government says man-made climate change is real. Just ask and trust the US Government."