posted on Nov, 8 2016 @ 07:28 AM
Fivethirtyeight overnight saw Trump drop to a 28% probability of an electoral victory. They continue to acknowledge that's only a probability however,
and that there is a much higher uncertainty intrinsic to this election than most, for a variety of reasons.
RCP shows her most likely getting a narrow electoral victory. Others show her getting a landslide (I think a landslide is highly improbable, but that
doesn't make it impossible.)
I still don't feel comfortable making a prediction, and am sticking with: if he wins New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and later in the night
Nevada, then all things being equal and polls being remotely accurate in their established leads on both sides, Trump can win. But that appears
unlikely at this stage. Likewise, if she wins Florida, it's likely in the bag for her unless he successfully flips Michigan or another state from
Half of me also expects a chaotic night where both of them score victories in states no polls have shown them leading in to date, just because of how
unprecedented and defiant of expectations this election has been so far. But the other half of me regards that as improbable, too.
(Again, didn't vote for either one. Just saying what I'm seeing and could as always be wrong.)
ETA: I would also note, apparently the Democratic areas of Florida are likely to report final returns first, so expect 7 PM (Eastern) to show a
significant lead for her regardless of the final tallies. Expect something more reflective of the final outcome there at 8 PM Eastern. Which could, if
she wins it, call the whole election effectively for her right then and there. If she loses Florida, then we'll all be up all night awaiting the
results lol. (Or just finding out tomorrow.)
edit on 11/8/2016 by AceWombat04 because: Added possible caution re: Florida results