Hillary Clinton Leads All Final Polls

After Brexit, I'd rather wait until D Day.

a reply to: ketsuko

Is there a way to put in an ATS request?

How about white male trump supporter looking for Conspiracy theorist hillary supporter?

a reply to: Indigo5

Bwaaahahahah...(cue evil laugh) Next we shall send rude tweets!!

This should work since he so likes the word.


K~

a reply to: Indigo5

and opine on reddit about conspiratorial explanations as to why our racist-orange-oaf -oompa-loompa mascot lost the presidential race

Are you really getting on people for conspiracies on a conspiracy website. Are you trolling, shilling, derping, or spamming?

When the polls have to be rigged, the candidate has to shore up appearances in Blue State backyards, when black voter turnout is at an alltime low.....Hillary is done for, only a few hours left to go.

While I would never venture to make a prediction (as I've said before,) what I've been monitoring are the RCP averages, and fivethirtyeight's models. (There are arguments to be made against all models, but those are the two I'm using, since I don't have a dog in this race anyway, and they seem reasonable and in 538's case, comprehensive enough to allow for unexpected scenarios.) And this is what I've observed.

After the first Comey email, things tightened rapidly, and Trump odds of victory rose to more than 1 in 3 (above 33%, at one point as high as 35%.) At that time, had he won New Hampshire (where tightening was also indicated,) along with the other states he was leading in - which also included Florida and Nevada - he would have very likely narrowly won an electoral victory. (Though it was unlikely, he definitely had a clear path and the tightening made it very much a very close race on paper IMHO.)

After the second Comey email (although even before polls showing the impact of that, if there was any, which suggests a reversal of the above trends was already underway,) she experienced a bounce. In the last day, the trajectory of their odds have completely reversed. The lines were heading for intersection, but have now curved away from one another. He is now back down to a 30% chance of winning, and her odds are marginally higher than his now even in Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada (even without fully considering the early voting numbers,) and perhaps most surprisingly, North Carolina, where Trump had previously held a longstanding, if marginal, probability edge.

However, all the pundits on both sides, as well as Nate Silver and his people, have been very cautious about proclaiming that this means she is all but certain to win. Why? Because of what they have variously termed as "the human element," "the possible enthusiasm gap," "the novel unpredictability intrinsic to this election," etc.

What they're really talking about is a combination of factors, the most prominent of which seem to be - if I'm reading all the jargon correctly as a layperson from the outside looking in - 1) higher than usual undecided voters remaining in the polling, 2) very high Latino turnout, 3) a higher theoretical Republican turnout than in 2012 for Romney, 4) Clinton losing some voters Obama had, 5) any as yet unquantified "enthusiasm gap" that might theoretically exist between Democratic and Republican voters (meaning: uncertainty about which base is more motivated, and whether one or the other might experience depressed turnout for various reasons,) 6) the contest between the aforementioned potentially depressed turnout on one hand, and ostensibly poor "ground game" on the other, and 7) signals that internally, the campaigns are worried about certain states that based on public polling and analysis they shouldn't be... and analysts being unsure as to why that might be, and whether they know something we don't (e.g. that those states might be in play, or that they fear they might be, for reasons we aren't privy to.)

I can't determine which if any of those factors are really relevant, or if all of them are, but it does seem there is a broad analytical consensus almost across the board that some or all of them are introducing higher than usual unpredictability into this race. Meaning we could still see some states go to a candidate that does not appear poised to win it, on both sides. Although that's unlikely, they seem to be careful to point out that doesn't rule it out, and that slightly less than 1/3 odds wouldn't make an upset horribly shocking, just very interesting.

Personally, it seems most probable that she is going to win. But for all of those reasons, I don't feel comfortable concluding anything until it's over. Whatever happens, it should be educational.

Peace.

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: Willtell

originally posted by: LumenImagoDei

On the eve of Election Day, Donald Trump is still talking about how he disapproves of the language Jay Z and Beyoncé used during his concert for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland over the weekend.

I thought Trump was the champion of being non-PC? Now he's whining about people being non-PC? What a hypocrite.

Trump never did and does not know his ass from a whole in the ground. He is as qualified to be president as the average bus or Uber driver.

Holy crap no...Don't blindly insult Bus or Uber Drivers.
Trump is anything but average and is "hugely" unusual in all the worst ways that matter.

Your right, I do apologize to the Uber and bus drivers

Run for the Hills, the Trumpets are sounding and the Polls are shifting

a reply to: beeyotch

Yup she sure does. 🌠🎉🎆🍻. never too early to start celebrating ! ! !

What is this? Your way of dissuading voters?

originally posted by: jellyrev
a reply to: Indigo5

and opine on reddit about conspiratorial explanations as to why our racist-orange-oaf -oompa-loompa mascot lost the presidential race

Are you really getting on people for conspiracies on a conspiracy website. Are you trolling, shilling, derping, or spamming?

Conspiracies are about entertaining unusual explanations for events and examining facts to see if they are plausable.

Trumpers ignore facts, invent fictional evidence and conspiracies specifically to dismiss realities not favorable to trump.

Likening Trump Propaganda to the actual conspiracies examined here is beyond lipstick on a pig.

One is a search for truth and the other is kidnapping and rape of the truth.

...maybe too harsh...but you get my point.

a reply to: NoCorruptionAllowed

Ok . What ev as they say. Tomorrow tomorrow, I love ya tomorrow......

Congratulations Madam President.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
I'm not voting for the bitch.
Guess I'm a rebel.

Like in Star Wars "Luke" lets head for the Deathstar...

originally posted by: 0bserver1

originally posted by: Bluntone22
I'm not voting for the bitch.
Guess I'm a rebel.

Like in Star Wars "Luke" lets head for the Deathstar...

Is it bad that for the sake of country that I hope she croaks? Am I evil?

a reply to: Throes
Nope you're honest and right..

originally posted by: 0bserver1

originally posted by: Bluntone22
I'm not voting for the bitch.
Guess I'm a rebel.

Like in Star Wars "Luke" lets head for the Deathstar...

She's large enough to be the Death Star. I'll bet she even has an exhaust port. Most folks would call it a mouth, but it sure does spew a lot of hot air!

a reply to: ketsuko
I remember something fell out of that exhaust port? Did they ever send that to the FBI, maybe it contains the last bit of evidence we need?

a reply to: kosmicjack

I took my third poll on the phone just yesterday.

originally posted by: Willtell

originally posted by: Jefferton
Isn't this kind of non-positive threads about Trump currently illegal on ATS?

Ps. Mods please don't give me the several warnings usually issued. Just an honest question.

I haven’t seen any ATS control of threads.

I think ATS has admirably conducted itself in this challenging period of this despicable election and I aint just kissing their assess, I really mean it.


This is a trauma for the US, and we don't even realize it yet, in that these two candidates are the two worst in our history to select from

yeah. there's so much #storm regarding this election - from both sides - on ATS, that anyone thinking ATS is censoring it in any way, is either extremely paranoid or simply insane.

Untrue - Trump leads in a couple of National polls.
There has been some movement to Clinton in the last 48hrs, though.

However, the national polls are only a guide. State information is far more useful at this stage.
Looks like Clinton has enough to win.