Early Voting Hints Trump May Have Already Lost Nevada

Nevada, from what I'm reading at least, is one of the few states where early voting actually tends (more than others at least) to translate into the actual general voting trends within the state in the final outcome. That said... this was yet another day that saw the 538 probabilities turn on a knife's edge in Nevada. Throughout the day it was at times giving both Clinton and Trump the edge, back and forth repeatedly.

We're starting to see signs of early voting in Florida that might be favorable to her as well... yet there again, it's really too close to definitively call.

What's more interesting to me is that while the probabilities haven't changed much on 538 for these states, nevertheless RCP's latest polling averages suggest much closer than anticipated races in both New Hampshire and, of all places, Pennsylvania. (Even Georgia, but historical and other factors lean heavily in Trump's favor there regardless.)

In short, I really am still not confident enough to make any sort of prediction personally. If she retains New Hampshire and PA, then there's very little for Trump in the way of a path even if he wins both Florida and Nevada, unless we see some sort of upset in Colorado, which seems improbable - but not entirely out of the realm of conceivability. Whereas if he wins New Hampshire and does more well than expected in PA (whether he wins it or not,) and also snags Florida, then she essentially must win Nevada because he's beating polls at that point, and that's when we'll see if this early voting news is actually indicative of the outcome there.

Basically, I feel like the heightened unpredictability Silver keeps referring to, due to the much higher number of undecideds even this late in the game, is being borne out in these unusually tight races and flipping repeatedly between them. We could see a Clinton landslide, a super close race where she barely wins, or a much higher than polled Trump turnout that defeats her. Or even a tie, although I regard that as the least likely of all outcomes. It's remarkable given all that has happened in both sides' campaigns, that it's still as open as it is.

I really won't feel like I can tell what's happening with any degree of confidence until election day and seeing states getting called for them. She definitely has a higher apparent probability of victory, but... it's not high enough to say it would be a dramatic shock if he won instead. He fell ever so slightly from 35% chance back to 34% or so today. But that's still greater than 1 in 3, which aren't horrible odds. (This is all assuming you believe Silver's models are as authoritative as they appear to be. Note that the one major error they made, was Trump's primary victory. They have tried to correct for that in their tweaked models, which is why his chances appear so high despite conventional wisdom saying otherwise. So now the question is... will he have an even more unpredictable victory now? Will this be America's Brexit shock? We shall see.)

Peace.


ETA: And he just fell back to 33.2% chance of victory, as his tightening in New Hampshire appears to be eroding, and she appears to be getting a slight national bounce now. Again, it's so fluid I can't begin to predict.

a reply to: DanteGaland

latino vote, the true hidden vote because they dont do polls in spanish.

trumps toast in nevada, florida, and possibly arizona cuz they all coming out in record numbers to vote against trump.

also in north carolina they shut down early voting booths from 17 to 1 in african american districts, and hilary still leading in north carolina.

trumps toast there also on election day when the african american vote comes out in huge numbers.

as for the intimidation tactics of sending kkk members to african american voting districts, those areas mobilizing to have 400 volunteer men who voted already at those polling centers to call in the authorities if they see any type of intimidation.

I find the 21.7% of the votes cast for "other" in Nevada interesting. (from Nevada Sec. of State site linked by the OP)

I never would have expected that number to be so high, but thinking about how repulsive both Trump and Hillary are, I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Actually, I am proud of my fellow Americans for choosing a 3rd or 4th candidate.

Do you think this trend will continue across the union, or that these "other" votes are inflated due to the proximity to Utah and Evan McMullin?

538 has shifted again. With more recent polling being processed, they now show her with narrow leads in Nevada, Florida and North Carolina which he previous led in fairly consistently. They also show her extending the lead in New Hampshire. As a consequence of all this, 538 has lowered Trump's chances back to below 1 in 3, currently sitting between 31% and 32% depending on which of their models you look at.

Peace.

The democrat machine usually churns out early votes to ensure when they screw up they don't become toast. All of their totals are way down from 2012. However, in a new phenomenon never seen before, Trump early votes which are usually way way down for republicans, are way way up compared to 2012.

Republicans usually out perform democrats on election day because most like to vote on the actual day. The wave that is coming will absolutely shock everyone. It will be a landslide victory for Trump. If people are willing to stand for hours in a cold driving rain to see Donald Trump and only 23 people go out to a Hillary rally, it only means that Trumps people will make sure they all get to the polls.

And then best part is (yes... there is a best part). The best part of all is that they made sure that it looked like Trump was behind in the polls and early votes. What that means is that more and more Trumpers will get out to vote. On the other hand, thinking they have a win in the bag, a lot of Hillarites will stay home assuming they won. Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!