A Super Duper Moon Is Coming- Will It Cause Another Mega Quake?

Days before a "supermoon" the tides have not yet grown to super size, which is just a few percent bigger than normal large tides. So in order to attribute a quake to the super tide (unlikely as that is), it would have to strike very near the time of the peak or later.

Also, tides are amplified and distorted by the ocean tides, often multiplying the tidal forces along the coast by a factor of several. Further, a particular fault feels the project of the stress, a traction, that is not necessarily proportional to the total amplitude of the tide.

Given the variable extent to amount of amplification in both space and time, and the difference between traction and water height or total force, the "solid body" tidal maximum is not so likely to be at the same time as the biggest stress on a particular fault.

a reply to: JohnVidale

Actually, it's more than a week before the full Moon tide. And the tide chart shows that it will be very high on the 15th.

I was referring to the 1948 coincidence.

a reply to: TrueAmerican
Re: "Great" versus "Major", depends who you read, I forget where I got my categories from, but they had 7.0-7.9 as "Very Strong" so that shifts the others up a notch. The MSM tend to call anything that kills people Major. even a M6.

Re: the 1948 quake coincidence with the Perigee, you can thank TommyD1966 for asking that question, I haven't really looked into it closely except my previous comment about "what about the other 54 x M8's since 1948 that didn't coincide with a Perigee", thats where it all fall s down.

I'm pretty open minded about any theory/trend and will check it out.
And things do change.
I'm thinking back to 2012-14 when I was able to predict an incoming M5 in NZ to within 3 days more than 60% of the time based on daily TTNT energy counts. Then 2015 came along and the formula doesn't work any more. Could be 2013-14 released all the pent up energy there was to be had after the 2009 Dusky Sound and 2010-11 Canterbury quakes let loose. It must have been building up from about 2006 through 2010.

Well I don't know for sure, but strange things are happening right now with earthquakes:

1) In the last day, all the small quakes we usually see in Alaska have STOPPED. Go look at the USGS map! EDIT: Oh, now all of a sudden some have come back? All those weren't there 20 minutes ago on the 1-day, all magnitude map. USGS error, ok.

2) All of a sudden we are getting quakes in bizarre places that are very unusual- look at that one in Australia. And look at those two in the midwest USA. And two quakes now up northeast? One offshore New York and the other in New Jersey?

Total weirdness. Something's not right. AT ALL.

I know, I know John, that 5+ in OK was just a coincidence. They happen all the time...

Tellin yas, I don't have a good feeling about this...

We are not "all of a sudden" getting quakes in bizarre places (specifically that Australian one) it is that we have such short attention spans.

www.ga.gov.au...
have a look on the search engine

Australia has been having some decent quakes this last couple of years, within periods that had nothing to do with Super Moons
here are the results of the search I did
5+ Nov2014-Nov2016

a reply to: JohnVidale

One has to concur. Although the crust of the earth goes up and down every day from the pull of the moon and it is possible this may affect an already unstable fault although not very likely, the difference, or I should say additional difference, due to a super moon is negligible.

There will always be coincidences and the human brain is very adept at finding them. At the end of the day 2 + 2 = 4 and cannot = 5. 1+1 is of course 10.

I dunno, but this big quake in New Zealand seems a little much for just a coincidence.

And right where muzzy lives.... Jesus. Hope you're ok muzzy!

We are in the window now of a few days before to a few days after the moon, which is tomorrow the 14th, and look: a 7.8!

And check this out, where the moon is now!
www.timeanddate.com...


darn close to NZ!

originally posted by: TrueAmerican
I dunno, but this big quake in New Zealand seems a little much for just a coincidence.

And right where muzzy lives.... Jesus. Hope you're ok muzzy!

We are in the window now of a few days before to a few days after the moon, which is tomorrow the 14th, and look: a 7.4

And check this out, where the moon is now!
www.timeanddate.com...

darn close to NZ!

I took this a few mins ago from my roof with my iphone, stupid flash was useless.



It sure is bright, tho. Check out the clouds on the mountains, bottom right.

I saw the quake on an alert on my phone when I went to turn the camera on and thought of this thread.

Hope it's not destructive. That's pretty big quake.

Prayers.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I actually just noticed this on RSOE EDIS and came to ATS to see if anyone posted it. My goodness it sure does seem that you were on about the timing with the super moons! I am going to look now, I hope it's not horrible for them.

Nice to see this popping up.

The ten days before and ten days after seem to have the biggest effect on magma, tides, the shape of earth yes the entire earth is affected in some way.

I proposed this many years ago and it's finally starting to show up even more true with new info.

The push and pull of perigee and apogee Is what causes stress and movement it is not the actual minute the moon is closest to earth that causes earthquakes or volcanic eruptions but the effect the moon has while it pulls and pushes the earth between apogee and perigee. So the ten days before and after I see as the times to watch and be prepared for.

OK TA I have to concede, there is obviously a relationship
on my back door none the less!
didn't see anything in the NZ earthquake data to indicate a problem on the Hope Fault (if that is the one)
but then again that's how these bigger ones work in NZ, we rarely get foreshocks

originally posted by: muzzy
OK TA I have to concede, there is obviously a relationship
on my back door none the less!
didn't see anything in the NZ earthquake data to indicate a problem on the Hope Fault (if that is the one)
but then again that's how these bigger ones work in NZ, we rarely get foreshocks

I know, right? In your case, you were literally shaken yourself into noticing.

So that at least gives us what, 3 pretty solid data points in time with these super moons? If there is a pattern, this last one should help to find it. I didn't post it, but there was a larger one in Japan as well a couple days ago. Larger than what was "currently" happening. That seems to be the pattern I am seeing. That we have to watch out for increased magnitudes when the super moons are here.

a reply to: TrueAmerican
But not a Mega Quake in the sense of a M8.
Sitting in the porch in the dark with no power at 12:30am you couldn't help but notice how bright the Moon was. But it didn't seem particularily big compared to a normal full moon.
Then there were the "earthquake lights" at the start of the quake, never seen those before, but I did see the flashes this time, like many others who looked out their windows.
Tonight is the Perigee, but we won't see it, been raining for a few hours now and will continue to do so for several days.

Thanks for the thread, as missed it earlier on. The Seattle area and outside is having heavier than it has had in days. If the fault was to go that would make landslides even worse. Not saying the heavier rain is due to the moon, though there is more info here:

Moon’s tidal forces affect amount of rainfall on Earth

When the moon is high in the sky, it creates bulges in the planet’s atmosphere that creates imperceptible changes in the amount of rain that falls below.
New University of Washington research to be published in Geophysical Research Letters shows that the lunar forces affect the amount of rain – though very slightly.

Source

a reply to: muzzy

Is there?

When the earthquake hit last night, the moon was 357,500 kms from earth.

It's been closer than that at other Perigees this year..

muzzy looks up at supermoon, shakes fist. "Haha, a 7.8? That all you got?"

a reply to: TrueAmerican

My God man, did you call this or what?

a reply to: pheonix358


Don't forget that when the sun and moon are aligned, you have bigger tides as well, in fact a lot higher. It must work on all fluids, including the molten parts being fluids as well.