History Professor Accurately Predicted 3 Decades of US Presidential Races is Calling a Trump Win

I don't care for Trump, and I don't like Hillary, but there is a history professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of elections, since 1984.

What is his magic secret?

If he's right we are stuck with Trump.

A history professor who has accurately predicted three decades of US presidential races is calling a Trump win

That’s the contention of Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University and author of Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. Lichtman’s well-known prediction system is based on 13 true/false “key” statements, which has been accurate in all eight US presidential races since 1984.

He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were clear enough to call the election for Trump. That was before the Access Hollywood tape, the WikiLeaks release of Clinton’s campaign emails, Trump’s panned third debate performance, and his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses.

The Post revisited his initial forecast and he is standing by his system.

When the Post revisited Lichtman’s initial forecast on Oct. 28, he said he’s standing by his prediction of a Trump win. “By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory,” Lichtman said in an interview.

Lichtman’s system, based on his study of the presidential election cycles between 1860 and 1980, doesn’t rely on polling data, demographic breakdowns, or other intensive number-crunching. If six or more of the “key” statements outlined in his Predicting the Next President book are true, the system favors the party in power.

who's going to teach Trump on how to be president....George w. bush?....dick cheney?......bannon of breibart will be calling the shots

a reply to: Realtruth

When I heard him on the radio he made a point of saying that Trump is such a wild card that he may break the historical pattern and lose when the forces of history favor him!

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: Realtruth

When I heard him on the radio he made a point of saying that Trump is such a wild card that he may break the historical pattern and lose when the forces of history favor him!

Yes that is why I included that last bit, in my OP, for the 28th of October.

I'll add this too. Exactly what you stated.

qz.com... ll-win-the-us-election/

But a key could still flip, Lichtman noted, and that would throw the odds back in the Democrats’ favor. Gary Johnson’s support, for example, could drop below 5% of the popular vote. Alternately, Trump’s unconventional antics might actually upend the prediction system altogether.

A candidate as disruptive to the status quo as Trump is anyone’s guess, he concluded: “There can come a time when change is so cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how we do our politics.”

I don't really care about the 100% accuracies ...

As Western Illinois University Has Predicted The Next President Correctly Since 1975

and they say Bernie Sanders

Ok it is an article from a year ago but still 100% is 100% right?

firebrandleft.com...

meanwhile they changed their "prediction"


So from that article that is sourced here i read:

Lichtman’s well-known prediction system is based on 13 true/false “key” statements, which has been accurate in all eight US presidential races since 1984. He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were clear enough to call the election for Trump.

I repeat

He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were clear enough to call the election for Trump.

So my guess is that when his keys change like 6 november his prediction will change.


As a gambler myself those predictions are hardly profitable.

Honestly as lame and stupid as the electoral college is, hopefully it will be too hard to rig this election.

a reply to: jimmyx

wow you are really witty.

His name will be Mike Pence.

a reply to: Realtruth

1984.

1984

1984

originally posted by: jellyrev
a reply to: jimmyx

wow you are really witty.

His name will be Mike Pence.

trump has never listened to pence, why would he start now.

In Obama's case I heard:because he was spoken of so much THAT is why he really won.

trump can win 2 ways....if no candidate gets 270 count on the electoral college, it goes to the house of reps, they will vote for trump

a reply to: Realtruth
The professors prediction is months old, but the following is news to me:

"and his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses."

Is that a miss type on your part? When did Trump claim that? He did not say it in the third debate when the issue was raised. So where did you get that claim from?

originally posted by: jimmyx
trump can win 2 ways....if no candidate gets 270 count on the electoral college, it goes to the house of reps, they will vote for trump

You speculate that the popular vote will see that Trump gets elected. Knowing now what has been implied, would you side with the House at that point or claim that voter fraud has taken place against Hillary?

originally posted by: jimmyx
who's going to teach Trump on how to be president....George w. bush?....dick cheney?......bannon of breibart will be calling the shots

Hopefully it won't be the same person that taught Obama. We don't want another dismal failure like Obama.

originally posted by: spiritualarchitect
a reply to: Realtruth
The professors prediction is months old, but the following is news to me:

"and his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses."

Is that a miss type on your part? When did Trump claim that? He did not say it in the third debate when the issue was raised. So where did you get that claim from?

Please follow and read the link in the OP carefully as it will answer all of your questions. I merely cut and pasted the info from the article, that is dated Oct 30 2016, and the professors update was on the 28th.

a reply to: Realtruth
Interesting Article, Thanks!

Guess this guy's formula was right again.

originally posted by: Realtruth
I don't care for Trump, and I don't like Hillary, but there is a history professor who has accurately predicted the outcome of elections, since 1984.

What is his magic secret?

If he's right we are stuck with Trump.

A history professor who has accurately predicted three decades of US presidential races is calling a Trump win

That’s the contention of Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University and author of Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House. Lichtman’s well-known prediction system is based on 13 true/false “key” statements, which has been accurate in all eight US presidential races since 1984.

He told the Washington Post in September that the “keys” were clear enough to call the election for Trump. That was before the Access Hollywood tape, the WikiLeaks release of Clinton’s campaign emails, Trump’s panned third debate performance, and his claim that he wouldn’t accept the election outcome if he loses.

The Post revisited his initial forecast and he is standing by his system.

When the Post revisited Lichtman’s initial forecast on Oct. 28, he said he’s standing by his prediction of a Trump win. “By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory,” Lichtman said in an interview.

Lichtman’s system, based on his study of the presidential election cycles between 1860 and 1980, doesn’t rely on polling data, demographic breakdowns, or other intensive number-crunching. If six or more of the “key” statements outlined in his Predicting the Next President book are true, the system favors the party in power.

Everyone would be wise to pay closer attention to Lichtman's prediction for 2024 and also the IBD poll. They both have the best long-term accuracy with Presidential election predictions. Chalk up yet another one for both!

a reply to: Realtruth


That same dude now has another prediction:


‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached

a reply to: Dumbass

Ye, but if you read further, this prediction is based on "gut", in other words, he just basing this off observation and not his key system.
He does make an interesting point. However, I believe that aids will be able to keep Trump in check. They are right, you can't control Trump.