Real time Facebook presidential poll shows a completely different story than mainstream media polls

a reply to: introvert Introvert You chiming in at every Trump thread in whats laughable, don't be so sensitive.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical

I wonder if America will just bend over and take it?

edit on 26-10-2016 by jadedANDcynical because: (another unscientific observation)

I sure as hell hope not. Tired of it all. How can our people realistically vote for someone with this much criminal baggage?

I have a hard time believing a huge sample size, like this poll, would yield a margin of error of +/- 45 percentage points.

I find this FB poll interesting because of the enormity of the sample size -- even with all the possible errors it encompasses.

originally posted by: whyamIhere

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Rezlooper

The truest republicans in the country are turning their backs on Donald Trump in Utah where an independent unknown looks better to them than their parties standard bearer. So much for who true republicans will vote for. And if you claim that Utah is not a true red state you'll just look silly.

Who the hell wants to be a true Republican.

We are the ones that tore the good ole boys network apart.

You just drank the koolaid-aid.

I agree with you. What I really meant when i said true republican was "true conservative"

originally posted by: BlueShaman

originally posted by: olaru12
Bookies are usually right but you got the odds wrong.

Clinton still in the lead by a nice margin....

Probably because bookies know for a fact this election is rigged.

I don't know why I even come back to this website. Bookies in Vegas are the safest you can get to an impartial view, as their whole methodology is to get the betting as even as possible, therefore no matter who wins they have to pay out very little and collect their VIG. They've been putting huge odds on Clinton since Trump was nominated before the whole 'it's rigged!' phenomenon. Why would that be? I guess it's because they know it's rigged. Yeah, like all the sports games are rigged. Like all the rest of the bets they take are rigged...or, because they buy out the best mathematicians in the country to do their algorithms. Occam's Razor is real. Which one seems more likely?

originally posted by: IsntLifeFunny

originally posted by: Rezlooper

originally posted by: introvert

If she wins this election I will be totally convinced that America has been hijacked by the Clinton Cabal and we are all friggin' doomed!

Because of a non-scientific poll conducted on facebook?

That makes no sense.

Scientific? This poll is much more accurate than these phony polls by the media who you have no idea who they are actually calling.

False. The guy is from Tennessee, a very red state. Therefore, even if he isn't a Republican, the majority of his friends on FB, who will likely be in his locale, will Republican. Then, the friends who vote have that show up on their friends' page, and they vote...are we starting to get the picture? No? Didnt think so.

Your post before this lame one said you were leaving the thread. Why are you still here?

originally posted by: Rezlooper
How can our people realistically vote for someone with this much criminal baggage?

They will not, which is why Hillary will win, and Trump will lose, then whine about it.

originally posted by: Rezlooper
A person from Tennessee chose to start his own poll on a Facebook thread yesterday morning that is going viral today. The votes are coming in by the dozens per minute.

Chad Kneller, of Lebanon Tennessee, posted a thread at 9:30 Tuesday, October 25, asking people to vote in his poll on who they prefer to be president. Kneller didn’t believe the media polls that suggest Hillary Clinton is winning the presidential election.

“Hey everyone I am curious please indulge me. I would love to conduct a poll. If interested just comment your choice. Trump, Clinton, Johnson, or Stein. That's it. No explanation. Last name only. I'm just curious if the poll I conduct is any different from the polls that the media conducts. I have friends and family who are both republican and democrat,” Kneller wrote.

As you try to keep up the constant flow of votes from real people who aren’t hiding behind their identity, you see real time results that are showing Donald Trump leading the poll by a huge margin. A counting of 100 consecutive votes from about 13,300 to 13, 400 shows Trump collected 89 votes to Clinton’s 11.

Similar results of the poll happen all the way down the thread with Trump leading about 90% to Clinton’s 10%.

In the first 24 hours of the poll, Kneller said he had over 3,000 votes of which more than 2,500 were for Trump.

National polls from mainstream media claim Clinton leads Trump by as much as 10 points.

“My conclusion is that the media and their polls do not always reflect reality,” Kneller posted on his Facebook page.

Visit Kneller’s page at the following link and witness the poll and submit your vote if you wish. Scroll down a few posts to the poll.

Chad Kneller's Facebook page

Folks, I am amazed as I watch the Trump votes flow down the page, and keep in mind, these are real folks on Facebook. This thread is going viral. It's clear what the media polls are doing... they are calling into the minority, or heavily democratic areas, such as Southside Chicago or Miami and using those results to try to convince America that she is winning. She's not!

If she wins this election I will be totally convinced that America has been hijacked by the Clinton Cabal and we are all friggin' doomed!

It's not a scientific poll for a whole list of reasons, from self selection bias to lack of representative sample...

originally posted by: MotherMayEye
I have a hard time believing a huge sample size, like this poll, would yield a margin of error of +/- 45 percentage points.

I find this FB poll interesting because of the enormity of the sample size -- even with all the possible errors it encompasses.

You do know how FB works, right?

First we have a guy doubting polling (nothing wrong with that, but he's a Trump supporter, you all know it). He lives in a deep red state. All of his friends are Trump supporters. All his friends friends are Trump supporters. Push out the locale and you are going further into very deep red territory (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky...etc)

You all talking about 'polls are being wrongly sampled' are laughable when touting something like this as youre polling 85+ Republicans in deep red territory.

If this was from Colorado it would hold more weight.

originally posted by: hellobruce

originally posted by: Rezlooper
How can our people realistically vote for someone with this much criminal baggage?

They will not, which is why Hillary will win, and Trump will lose, then whine about it.

Lol, so now Trump has the criminal baggage? Prove it!

originally posted by: Rezlooper

Lol, so now Trump has the criminal baggage? Prove it!

How about you show where Hillary has criminal baggage, and which court that was proven in?

To all of the people in this thread saying that Trump does not stand a chance -
Do you happen to remember how often that was said during the primaries?
No one thought he had a chance then either.
I see newscasters now with the map of states showing various possibilities and trying to say it will be hard for Trump to reach the magic number.
It's like deja vu. They did the same things for the primaries.
Remember how shocked everyone was as the primary results started coming in?
I hope to see the same thing on election night.

I don't believe in the results of any "poll".
But - one thing this Facebook experiment shows is something that some of us have been noticing for a while.
In real life - real people are enthusiastic for Trump.
We see it in the rally attendance. We see it in the Trump yard signs that are popping up everywhere.
I hope that the enthusiasm carries through to the real election, because we need Trump.

originally posted by: hellobruce

originally posted by: Rezlooper

Lol, so now Trump has the criminal baggage? Prove it!

How about you show where Hillary has criminal baggage?

Its been 100% proven Hillary mishandled classified information. Me, You, ANYONE else would have been looking at prison time or other ramifications of at least some sort.

a reply to: IsntLifeFunny

The relationship between margin of error and sample size is simple: As the sample size increases, the margin of error decreases. This relationship is called an inverse because the two move in opposite directions.

Link to Statistics for Dummies

I don't really care about how many possible errors there could be in the polling...the sample size is enormous. There isn't a +/- 45% margin of error.

It's an interesting and very telling poll...even if it is fraught with unknowns and errors.

originally posted by: BlueAjah

In real life - real people are enthusiastic for Trump.

Facebook is NOT real life....

originally posted by: hellobruce

originally posted by: Rezlooper

Lol, so now Trump has the criminal baggage? Prove it!

How about you show where Hillary has criminal baggage, and which court that was proven in?

Do you have several hours of reading time? And that will be just the first paragraph of each link I provide.

originally posted by: Greggers

When Trump loses, will you come back and acknowledge that scientifically conducted polls use reliable methodology, while Facebook polls have no statistical relevance?

Not to mention the well-known effect of self-selection bias; which none of these boneheads believe polls because they don't have the scientific inclination to actually understand things (i.e. self-selection bias) to realize the monstrous effort it would take to rig an election that prolly has a popular vote spread of 7%.

originally posted by: Rezlooper
Do you have several hours of reading time? And that will be just the first paragraph of each link I provide.

Just point to the court decisions.

Unless......

originally posted by: whyamIhere
The Election is in less than two weeks.

I want the results.

The difference is if Hillary wins I will except the results.

If Trump wins Griffy will never except Trump.

Tell me I'm wrong ?

If Trump is elected President, then he will be President. That's the way our system works.

originally posted by: MotherMayEye
I have a hard time believing a huge sample size, like this poll, would yield a margin of error of +/- 45 percentage points.

I find this FB poll interesting because of the enormity of the sample size -- even with all the possible errors it encompasses.

The problem with the poll (which hasn't shown up on MY Facebook feed or that of any of my friends (a fairly large sample) is that it just reaches his friends....

...and the friends of his friends...

...and the friends of those friends.

I will wager you that they've blocked or don't have many liberal SJW friends. Heck... look at YOUR feed (if you have one) - how many people on yours are a different race, different sexual orientation, different philosophy/religion, different socioeconomic category.

So this poll simply confirms the bias of the person who started the poll - just as polls on Drudge or DailyKOS do not reflect America but affect the people who access that site..

If you want an UNVARNISHED guess, look at the percentage of absentee ballots requested from each political party. They will be asking for a ballot from the party that has their candidate or the party that they affiliate themselves with.