a reply to: Xcalibur254
How is it that you say that you're not asking a question based on what polls say, and then go and cite polling data/statistical data to pretend to
bolster your implication contained within the question?
Just because there are 69% (according to you...with no links) of the voting(?) population that generally sides with Democrats does not mean that all
of them do. Furthermore, since you dont' specific that this population consists of likely voters, I'm suspect as to whether or not you actually have a
factual number with which to start the discussion.
Give me a minute to look something up...
(virtual minute passes)
...okay, let's look at the demographic of likely voters in America for 2016 (according to
Okay, so, non-Hispanic white voters will make up 69% of the electorate this year, meaning that 31% will be "minority" voters. 31% is quite a
difference from 37%.
As for women (which you don't differentiate if that includes minority women or not), let's look at the best (and quickest) data I can find--a
article from May that shows that 43% of white-women registered voters (not "likely voters) are leaning toward Clinton. 43% of the 69% of white people
leaves you with just shy of 30% of white voters who can be summarily identified as white women who will vote for Hillary Clinton.
Now, let's look at minority voters again--according to this cool, interactive chart on
, it would seem that while
Clinton appears to have a 79-point advantage with black voters and a 28-point advantage with Hispanic voters, that's a very, very far cry from being
able to assume that ALL minority votes will go to her. So, let's just say for the sake of argument that MAYBE Clinton will walk away with 65% of the
minority vote--that leaves you with 65% of the actual 31% of the population that forms the minority vote, or equivalent to 20% of the overall voting
So, take that 20% of the population (minorities assumed to be voting for Clinton) and add that to the 30% of the population that is the REGISTERED
(not "likely) voting block of white females, and you come to 50% of the population, almost exactly. That is a far cry from the 69% that you claimed in
And you have to keep in mind that registered voters do not equate to likely/actual voters--according to the
, about 60% of eligible voters actually turned out in 2012.
Maybe it will be slightly more this time, so take the 'registered-voter' number for white women with a grain of salt, as that could change quite a
interesting NYTimes article about Trump's still-alive chance at winning the election, and I trust their math over yours, for sure. Read it if you'd
My whole point in my response is not that I know that Trump is going to win--I wish that neither would win--but that the foundation of your argument
is massively faulty. And you must also keep in mind that there will be percentage points this time around going to Gary Johnson, I believe, instead of
the less than 1% that he received in 2012, so that changes things up, too, as most polls don't include a third-party option in their data.
on 26-10-2016 by SlapMonkey because: (no reason given)