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Why Do People Think Trump Even Has A Shot?

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posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:14 PM
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originally posted by: Bluntone22
Obama won the last election by around 5 million votes or about 3 percent of the vote..
That averages about 100 votes per state.
Yes I know that's just an average.

That was with about 55 percent voter turnout.

Not exactly a landslide.

This election might be closer.


There aren't 50,000 states. 5 million votes averages out to 100,000 votes per state,,, just sayin'.




posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:16 PM
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a reply to: burdman30ott6

Oops,
Was supposed to be a "k" after that 100..
Auto correct...



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:18 PM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

Because only those who have bought in to the Establishment Narrative™ seem to be trying to convince everyone that he doesn't have a shot. It would seem that fear has taken over and the goal has become the fearful constantly trying to convince themselves that Trump can't win on November 8th. I am not fearful and I believe he absolutely can win.

To be honest, I don't think this is going to be close. Trump has the support needed to steamroll this on the 8th.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:19 PM
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This is why...Rally Crowds



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:45 PM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

If I dont`t agree wtih Hillary Clinton or anything she stands for, explain to me my serious options for trying to prevent her presidency at this point? Aside from voting Trump, there are none.

That is your answer.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:47 PM
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a reply to: Azzie74

Go back to the 2012 Republican Primary. Compare Ron Paul's rallies to Mitt Romney's. Which one has significantly bigger crowds? Which one secured the nomination? Rally size really isn't indicative of who will win.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:50 PM
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originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: Azzie74

Go back to the 2012 Republican Primary. Compare Ron Paul's rallies to Mitt Romney's. Which one has significantly bigger crowds? Which one secured the nomination? Rally size really isn't indicative of who will win.


Were you saying that Obama?



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:50 PM
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topic ignored for trolling.


a reply to: ketsuko



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:52 PM
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a reply to: ketsuko

If I dont`t agree wtih Hillary Clinton or anything she stands for, explain to me my serious options for trying to prevent her presidency at this point? Aside from voting Trump, there are none.

And therein lies the truth, but it works both ways. So many aren't voting "for" HRC, they're voting against Trump.

You know.................there's a danger in that. And its a danger that's hard to quantify. If I'm the "typical" "Democrat" who is inclined to vote "against" Trump but isn't in love with HRC cause, after all, she isn't Barack Hussein Obama, and IF it's presented to me that HRC can't lose................why tear my self away from the computer, or watching Opra, to bother to vote for HRC?



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:52 PM
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Trump's probability of winning isn't zero.

I think Nate Silver has his chance of winning at somewhere near 18%.

Trump, however, claims that he's "winning" and that the polls are "rigged," and he's hedging his bets by also making the counter-productive claim that the election itself is rigged, so he can blame someone when he loses.

That he would resort to these antics is not surprising. That so many people would believe him... sort of is.

The truth is, we have a lot of people in this country who spend way too much time in an echo-chamber that openly reinforces lies. Just look at all the bogus stories about the wiki leaks that CLAIM to prove voter fraud, poll fraud, etc. but which could be easily debunked in less time than it took to read the article if people would just do A LITTLE investigation on their own.

People believe Trump is winning (or has a good shot at winning) for one reason: They want to.
edit on 26-10-2016 by Greggers because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:54 PM
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a reply to: DerBeobachter

Personally....I think he went off the Reservation....



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:55 PM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254

How is it that you say that you're not asking a question based on what polls say, and then go and cite polling data/statistical data to pretend to bolster your implication contained within the question?

Just because there are 69% (according to you...with no links) of the voting(?) population that generally sides with Democrats does not mean that all of them do. Furthermore, since you dont' specific that this population consists of likely voters, I'm suspect as to whether or not you actually have a factual number with which to start the discussion.

Give me a minute to look something up...

(virtual minute passes)

...okay, let's look at the demographic of likely voters in America for 2016 (according to Pew Research):

Okay, so, non-Hispanic white voters will make up 69% of the electorate this year, meaning that 31% will be "minority" voters. 31% is quite a difference from 37%.

As for women (which you don't differentiate if that includes minority women or not), let's look at the best (and quickest) data I can find--a WaPo article from May that shows that 43% of white-women registered voters (not "likely voters) are leaning toward Clinton. 43% of the 69% of white people leaves you with just shy of 30% of white voters who can be summarily identified as white women who will vote for Hillary Clinton.

Now, let's look at minority voters again--according to this cool, interactive chart on WaPo, it would seem that while Clinton appears to have a 79-point advantage with black voters and a 28-point advantage with Hispanic voters, that's a very, very far cry from being able to assume that ALL minority votes will go to her. So, let's just say for the sake of argument that MAYBE Clinton will walk away with 65% of the minority vote--that leaves you with 65% of the actual 31% of the population that forms the minority vote, or equivalent to 20% of the overall voting population.

So, take that 20% of the population (minorities assumed to be voting for Clinton) and add that to the 30% of the population that is the REGISTERED (not "likely) voting block of white females, and you come to 50% of the population, almost exactly. That is a far cry from the 69% that you claimed in your OP.

And you have to keep in mind that registered voters do not equate to likely/actual voters--according to the Elections Project, about 60% of eligible voters actually turned out in 2012. Maybe it will be slightly more this time, so take the 'registered-voter' number for white women with a grain of salt, as that could change quite a bit.

Here is an interesting NYTimes article about Trump's still-alive chance at winning the election, and I trust their math over yours, for sure. Read it if you'd like to.

My whole point in my response is not that I know that Trump is going to win--I wish that neither would win--but that the foundation of your argument is massively faulty. And you must also keep in mind that there will be percentage points this time around going to Gary Johnson, I believe, instead of the less than 1% that he received in 2012, so that changes things up, too, as most polls don't include a third-party option in their data.
edit on 26-10-2016 by SlapMonkey because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:55 PM
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a reply to: SaturnFX

His ONLY impetus is revenge.
He was angered and he is attacking.
Tea party elements LIKE that in candidate,his platform is almost PURE Tea Party values ,even if he makes it he won't do all of it.
But the earth needs an America that KNOWS what its DOING .
Trump can PICK and choose WHOMEVER he wants as a cabinet member ,he isn't a slave to any political group .
HE HIRES based on PERFORMANCE and like a JOB manager ...not a LAWYER.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:56 PM
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a reply to: proximo

The peasants are revolting.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:57 PM
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a reply to: TonyS

As far as I am concerned the idea that Trump is a horrible person is a wash when you put up Hillary. She's just as horrible IMO. So it comes to policy and Trump`s stated policy positions are better than hers. So I again come down to voting for what I would prefer which is his policy positions.

Anyone who thinks higher taxes, more Obamacare, and unchecked immigration of low-skilled workers is a good thing for them hasn't been paying attention the past 8 years to what those policies have done.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:58 PM
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originally posted by: Enderdog
a reply to: proximo

The peasants are revolting.


They're not doing it well.

We need a revolt in this country. Putting a plutocrat into office, whether D or R, is no way to do it.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 01:58 PM
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a reply to: cavtrooper7

All progress depends on unreasonable people.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 02:08 PM
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a reply to: Xcalibur254




Why Do People Think Trump Even Has A Shot?


New numbers are fresh in today and Trump is gaining on hillary again.
A new Bloomberg Politics poll finds Trump ahead of Clinton, 45% to 43% go Trump go!!!



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 02:15 PM
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a reply to: Enderdog

I remember when we thought these scum were honorable, actual GREAT people.
It was COOL to be President
Now we can tell they are actually BENEATH us mostly about the cash ,like any criminal, I am GALLED at any supporter of it.
ALL EXTREMELY intelligent but NOT very smart.
This propaganda effort is PATHETIC when you have such connectivity when we only had 3 channels they pulled it off once but NOW?
Pffft ,the DNC ate it BIG time getting caught, THE cardinal sin in America.
IN fact HOW this country is RUN,breaking rules in secret.
RNC hasn't been caught like THIS,but I 'M MORE than sure the types that RAN over to the enemy are QUITE familiar with it.



posted on Oct, 26 2016 @ 02:30 PM
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a reply to: Staroth

The only Bloomberg poll I saw today was for Florida. With the exception of LA Times (which had Trump up 1) every general election poll had Hillary leading. USA Today had her up a full 10 points.
edit on 10/26/2016 by Xcalibur254 because: (no reason given)




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