Florida is important for Trump. Very Important.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Zanti Misfit
I'd still call it a toss up.
But I think Trump needs it, while Clinton would like to have it.

I agree with this. Florida is a must for Trump. Without his 270 path is cut off. Ohio and Florida are must win states. I've been following the polls in Florida and Clinton has been leading consistently but within the margin of error... it is a toss of state by all definition. I don't think the Cuban american vote is coming in force as much as it should this time around and this is bad for Trump. He needs them more than any other GOP nominee before.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

Some of you may know this already but there are 1.4 million Cuban Americans in Florida alone... this is out of 20 million Floridians. They can make a big difference if they come in force, but this doesn't appear to be the case. Trump needed to focus more on this group in my opinion.... they are instrumental to his 270 path.

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: Southern Guardian

Some of you may know this already but there are 1.4 million Cuban Americans in Florida alone... this is out of 20 million Floridians. They can make a big difference if they come in force, but this doesn't appear to be the case. Trump needed to focus more on this group in my opinion.... they are instrumental to his 270 path.

Cubans are Hispanics and Trump made it obvious that he didn't care much for Hispanics or any minorities for that matter.

Strange way to run a campaign by insulting the very demographic you need to win. That goes double for women.

This is what 538 says today.

Florida Clinton 46.2% Trump 42.8% Undecided/3rd party 10.9%

a reply to: olaru12

The thing is, Cubans are all legal immigrants so apart from the racial undertones of Trump's rhetoric his immigration policies would have no effect on them.

Florida is only important for Trump if he runs the table on most of the other battleground states. Otherwise he gets nowhere near 270. And that is assuming all the red states stay red which is looking less and less likely. It is so bad Pence is going to what was once solid Red Utah to try and keep it red. And Trumps ground game in Florida is as bad as it is in other battle ground states and on election day that is going to really hurt him.

originally posted by: Phage
As of Tuesday morning, with one day of early voting, Florida (important state, very important) ballots (including mail ins) look like this:

Rep: 41%
Dem: 41%
Ind: 16%
Oth: 3%
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com...

Wow. Close. But wait, there's more.

 

Going by the most favorable current poll for Trump we see that 75% of Florida Republicans may be Trump voters, 78% of Democrats may be Clinton voters, and independents favoring Trump by 8 points.
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Applying those numbers to the ballots cast so far we get this:

Clinton 769,909
Trump 753,978

For what it's worth.

Nice.. good to see the Numbers before Trumps big Win.

a reply to: Byrd

Interesting. What that says to me is the GOP don't have their head in the game. This is understandable in the presidential race as they have written Trump off as they planned to from July onward. In the Congressional seats up for grabs the GOP has either been blown up by Trump to save it or is such a dysfunctional train wreck it is dying a slow death. At any rate I don't think a Republican President will be in the White House for another 8 years.

a reply to: MrSpad

Trump has no real interest in winning Florida or any of the other key battleground states. Trump will already be thinking about his next moves for the Trump brand which may well be a foray into the emerging media platforms based on the web. Either way providing they stay away from Cruz in 4 years time the GOP will have the chance to rebuild from the ground up.

There are a lot of Haitians and old people in this state. My God it's Hilary Clinton, how could anyone vote for that monster? But I know a few of them too. I've seen zero Clinton signs, two clinton bumper stickers here but we'll see what happens.

originally posted by: flyingdutchman2112
There are a lot of Haitians and old people in this state. My God it's Hilary Clinton, how could anyone vote for that monster? But I know a few of them too. I've seen zero Clinton signs, two clinton bumper stickers here but we'll see what happens.

Who Nixon termed The Silent Majority will decided the election outcome. After Nixon passed into history much of the Silent Majority became swing voters. Swing voters decided elections the world over whether it be a General Election in New Zealand or the US Presidential Election. Just my 10 cents.

originally posted by: xpert11
a reply to: Byrd

Interesting. What that says to me is the GOP don't have their head in the game. This is understandable in the presidential race as they have written Trump off as they planned to from July onward. In the Congressional seats up for grabs the GOP has either been blown up by Trump to save it or is such a dysfunctional train wreck it is dying a slow death. At any rate I don't think a Republican President will be in the White House for another 8 years.

Actually, Trump caught them flat-footed. They expected that when he was confirmed, he would behave as other candidates - help raise money for the party (and the party in return raise money for them) so that they can strengthen the candidate AND strengthen the Senate so that their party can make more policy changes.

Trump didn't do any fundraising...and then when he did, he didn't support any of the lower level candidates. He didn't set up many field offices (unlike Clinton) because he was relying on his "free publicity" to take the place of advertising and all that.

Clinton and the Democrats, however, were well aware of the process of gaining power in Congress. Her fundraising also benefitted Democratic Congresspeople and her many campaign offices were in on the "get out the vote and get registered" drive months before this.

Politics isn't a game for amateurs.

originally posted by: eluryh22
a reply to: Phage

Do those include the ballots that will be found in the trunk of a poll worker's personal automobile a few weeks after the election?

I can answer that as this was suspected in the Scottish Referendum, by the looks of things if it's votes for Trump it will be swept under the rug and never spoke of again (like happened in Scotland) but if they're Clinton votes the whole thing will be called null & void and a recount will be demanded...

a reply to: djz3ro

The recount would be only for Florida. Been there. Done that.


Oh, crap. Would Donny be enough of an idiot to "demand" a recount in every state?

a reply to: Phage

Electoral ? Does the count matter?

originally posted by: bluerabbit7788

originally posted by: Phage
As of Tuesday morning, with one day of early voting, Florida (important state, very important) ballots (including mail ins) look like this:

Rep: 41%
Dem: 41%
Ind: 16%
Oth: 3%
countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com...

Wow. Close. But wait, there's more.

 

Going by the most favorable current poll for Trump we see that 75% of Florida Republicans may be Trump voters, 78% of Democrats may be Clinton voters, and independents favoring Trump by 8 points.
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Applying those numbers to the ballots cast so far we get this:

Clinton 769,909
Trump 753,978

For what it's worth.

also look at this

"I've known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy, he's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it -- Jeffrey enjoys his social life." - Donald Trump

nymag.com...

In light of the access hollywood video and groping donalds got bigger problems.

On Dec 20 2016 donald has to be in court in Jane Doe Case involving alleged rape of a 13 year old girl with buddy billionaire and convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein at a party at Epstein's Mansion with underaged girls.

www.buzzfeed.com...

www.dailywire.com...#

www.bluedotdaily.com...

In another deposition, Epstein’s brother Mark testified he once flew on Jeffrey Epstein’s plane with both him and Trump, who were “friends.” Asked why Trump was on board, Mark Epstein replied, “You’ll have to ask Donald."

www.documentcloud.org...

Obvious CTR bot is obvious?

originally posted by: eluryh22
a reply to: Phage

Do those include the ballots that will be found in the trunk of a poll worker's personal automobile a few weeks after the election?

unless trump wins, then everything is honky dory, right?

a reply to: MrSpad

I've heard them say recently that no republican has ever made it to the Whitehouse without Florida.

He needs Ohio Clinton wants it. He needs Florida. Clinton wants it.

She can get there without either one.

Expected results right now show her with 272. Him with 126 and 140 up for grabs including Florida and Ohio.

It looks like he has no path unless she loses a blue state or two.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

I agree Florida is important. The media knows this as well, and they will most likely call the state for the Democrat very early again, just like last election. Hell, they are trying to convince the USA Hillary has already won these states from early voting! Malarky. Also watch for the handful of FL counties that vote blue that will wait to report last, so they know how many votes Hillary needs to push her over the top. This same tactic is used in other swing states.

a reply to: xpert11

In eight years the country will be even more liberal. That's the direction were moving. If the Grand Old Party wants to remain relevant they need to make some changes or go the way of the Whigs and Torrys.