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The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.
Several recent social science studies find that belief in government corruption seems to discourage voting. An Innovations for Poverty Action field experiment in Mexico found that telling residents about the incumbent party's record of corruption depressed their turnout rates.
"They stayed home because they were fed up with the system," said Alberto Chong, a Georgia State University professor who co-wrote the paper.
A second study, from scholars at Sweden's University of Gothenburg, used a multiple-country analysis to show that perceptions of government malfeasance negatively affect turnout. This is true, however, only in countries with low to medium levels of corruption (like, say, the United States).
In another experiment, this time in the U.S., researchers tested different messages shown to people Googling information about voter registration. Language saying "the system is rigged" was less effective at getting clicks than "registering is quick, easy, and free."
Evidence shows that those who question the integrity of the voting process are far less likely to participate. That’s clear in the graph below.
Among Americans in the 2012 ANES survey who believe that votes are “very often” counted fairly, over three-quarters (77 percent) reported that they voted. By contrast, among those with strong doubts about this process, just two-thirds (64 percent) bothered to vote, generating a net 13-point gap.
When asked whether they thought that electoral officials were fair, similar patterns can be observed, where greater trust is significantly associated with higher voter turnout. None of the other claims about electoral malpractice was observed to have a similar effect on turnout, including problems of media bias, lack of genuine choice and campaign finance.
The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that high-information Republican voters, seeing Trump imploding and not necessarily having been happy with him as their nominee in the first place, feel free to cast a protest vote at the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, lower-information Republican voters don’t turn out at all, given that Trump’s rigging rhetoric could suppress their vote and that Republicans don’t have the field operation to pull them back in. That’s how you could get a Clinton landslide like the one the ABC News poll describes, along with a Democratic Senate and possibly even — although it’s a reach — a Democratic House.
originally posted by: kruphix
a reply to: whyamIhere
You fall into the category of "die hard Trump supporter" that will go out and vote for him regardless. You are the one he was talking about when he said "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters".
And if I'm supposed to be getting a free check...I'll have to look into that because so far I haven't seen one.
originally posted by: olaru12
Apparently Texas is turning blue.....
Turmp needed Texas in a big way! All that nasty talk turned off a lot of Christians. It certainly did my Baptist, conservative, Republican, 83 yr old mother and her church friends.