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Trump Suppoerters, Can You Just Let Us Know Which Polls Are Valid?

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posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:06 PM
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originally posted by: raymundoko
a reply to: Greggers

Media polling is polling used/completed by the media. You've never taken marketing classes in college? You are confusing Media Marketing for Media Polling. Often it's just shortened to plain old Media. To throw "polling" after it change the definition.

They are also asking for MORE info from Atlas, NOT what is in the document.

Are you suggesting the email is referring to a marketing campaign based on over sampling?

The document you reference specifically says they need to over sample hispanics and native Americans. It also recommends to make sure they don't get the "old people" in Florida and to make sure they are getting mostly younger voters.

It's a great 37 pages. You should read all of it.


I have read all of it, more than once. It's clear the purpose of that report is for internal Democratic polls to aid outreach. MSM polls do not concern themselves with the type of material in that report.

Also, perhaps you are unaware that both oversampling and undersampling can be used to improve a dataset.




posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:09 PM
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a reply to: Greggers

I am very aware it can be used to improve a dataset, especially if you have a very small subset of people you want to get more accurate numbers for. Without over or under sampling in some cases you end up with a wider margin of error.

In this case, most experts agree you don't need to over sample African Americans or Hispanics for accurate numbers in a nationwide poll. Native Americans? Probably yes.
edit on 9-11-2016 by raymundoko because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:09 PM
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Some more excerpts from that Atlas report that make is perfectly clear what it's intended purpose is:






Consider modeling independents to discern how many of them are strong Republican, strong Democrat, or swing. Statewide Democrats since 2002 have carried the independent vote, but the margins have been too narrow. It will be critical to move independents 12 to 15 points to bring the Democrats closer to 65% and 66%.


In 2008, there must be a concerted effort to target moderate Republican women early and often, particularly those in Maricopa and Pima counties. Historically, campaigns communicated heavily with moderate Republican women in rural Arizona. Polling should be conducted to determine whether or not this should be expanded to portions of Pinal and Yavapai counties.


VBM poll. In 2006, the coordinated campaign (using Grove Insight) conducted a poll of potential VBM targets to determine the right messaging for the various groups within the VBM universe. This was very effective in developing the best message for this targeted universe


edit on 9-11-2016 by Greggers because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:12 PM
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Trump 2016

You dumbaskes we lied to you when you called during dinner or the movie. Get over it.





posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:12 PM
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originally posted by: raymundoko
a reply to: Greggers

I am very aware it can be used to improve a dataset, especially if you have a very small subset of people you want to get more accurate numbers for. Without over or under sampling in some cases you end up with a wider margin of error.

In this case, most experts agree you don't need to over sample African Americans or Hispanics for accurate numbers in a nationwide poll. Native Americans? Probably yes.


Generally speaking, the oversampling recommendations were region specific and were geared toward which groups they needed to conduct focus groups with (so, for example, a special group to get in-depth responses strictly from Latino voters is one example from the report) or groups for which it was recommended to poll independently.



posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 04:18 PM
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a reply to: Greggers

Your excerpt left out this part:


Research, microtargeting & polling projects
• Over-sample Hispanics
• Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets.)
• Over-sample the Native American population.
o The ratio of voters-to phone numbers is higher in areas with high Native American populations.


Are you suggesting they needed to over sample hispanics in Arizona?



posted on Nov, 9 2016 @ 05:03 PM
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originally posted by: raymundoko
a reply to: Greggers

Your excerpt left out this part:


Research, microtargeting & polling projects
• Over-sample Hispanics
• Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets.)
• Over-sample the Native American population.
o The ratio of voters-to phone numbers is higher in areas with high Native American populations.


Are you suggesting they needed to over sample hispanics in Arizona?



Yes, I am.

You will notice they also had a recommendation for oversampling Republican women.

Again, this has nothing to do with MSM polls.

They are attempting to get more granular information on these demographics so they can better understand how to reach them.

Clearly, it didn't work.
edit on 9-11-2016 by Greggers because: (no reason given)



posted on Nov, 10 2016 @ 07:08 AM
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originally posted by: kruphix
I was about to make a couple threads, one about the current view of the national polls and why they are showing that Clinton is still well ahead in the polls.

The other was going to be about Texas and Arizona, and how Trump may lose both of those states based on Poll trending.


But as I was creating the first one I thought, "Why? They are just going to claim the polls I am using (which is all of them) aren't valid". So instead I thought, let me just ask them which ones they will accept as valid.

So please let me know, which polls do you think are valid and which do you think are invalid? Does it change based on who is currently leading in that particular poll, or will you unilaterally accept the results of a specific poll regardless of who it shows currently winning?

Also, do you think State polls are more or less accurate compared to National polls? Which polls do you think are more important?

Or, do you think all polls are invalid and that crowd size/yard signs/Facebook likes are more accurate? If so, please try to give a convincing argument as to why you think this.


Wow - horribly wrong.



posted on Nov, 11 2016 @ 10:01 PM
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a reply to: kruphix

kruphix have you figured out which ones are valid yet?



posted on Nov, 22 2016 @ 12:37 PM
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kruphix - I'm still waiting, have you determined which polls are correct yet?



posted on Nov, 29 2016 @ 07:48 AM
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Any idea yet?



posted on Nov, 29 2016 @ 08:08 AM
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originally posted by: Steak
Any idea yet?


lol



Keep on trying brother.



posted on Nov, 29 2016 @ 08:11 AM
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a reply to: kruphix

Easy... whichever polls showed Trump winning the election were correct.

All others were incorrect.


Very simple.

Thread over. Goodbye. Have a nice day.



posted on Dec, 2 2016 @ 12:15 PM
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Which polls were correct?




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