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originally posted by: eluryh22
originally posted by: kruphix
a reply to: eluryh22
I do think that the number of people that make the time to actually show up at events is a slight indicator of "where the public is" regarding a candidate.
Historical data says otherwise.
This claim is made every election, because for whatever reason, Republicans love political rallies.
I can't say if that is right or wrong. Do you have any links where I can verify that? I know Obama drew ENORMOUS crowds wherever he went. Romney didn't do too bad but it paled in comparison as best I can remember. I also remember Obama killing it in the previous election and McCain... meh. Let me know if there is anywhere I can read about your assertion.
This isn’t to pick on Trump and his fans exclusively. MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki flagged a report this morning from the fall of 1984, when Walter Mondale pointed to crowd sizes as proof the polls – which showed him losing badly to Ronald Reagan – could be wrong. Mondale soon after lost 49 states.
In fact, extrapolating electoral prospects from the size of rally crowds is often a misleading metric -- for evidence, look no further than the campaigns of Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry and Mitt Romney. Bernie Sanders thrilled thousands of people in mega-rallies over the past year and a half as well.
But history shows, that for all its faults, polling is a better predictor of electoral success in a broad electorate, than crowd size.
In 2004, hopes soared on the Kerry plane that massive crowds just before election day -- 80,000 in Madison, Wisconsin, and 50,000 on Cleveland's waterfront, assured victory. But Kerry lost both Ohio and the White House. In 2012, GOP nominee Romney was misled by crowds which swelled as election day approached. "Look at the parking garage!" Romney gushed in footage aired in the documentary "Mitt" as he eyeballed a crowd on election day in Pittsburgh. "Intellectually, I've felt we're going to win this and have felt that for some time, but emotionally just getting off the plane and seeing those people standing there ... I not only think we're going to win intellectually, I feel it as well," Romney told reporters, hours before losing handily to Obama.
originally posted by: neo96
a reply to: spiritualzombie
We see the danger in electing someone that says 'Can't we just Drone the guy'.
Reference to silencing someones speech because it's and 'inconvenient truth'.
During the race for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders and his supporters would routinely emphasize the amazing crowds that would turn out for the Vermont senator’s events.
Bernie Sanders thrilled thousands of people in mega-rallies over the past year and a half as well.
Barack Obama's mega rallies in 2008 did turn out to be an indicator of strength and surprising competitiveness in red states like Missouri -- where he once had a crowd of 100,000 people and Indiana, where he attracted 35,000 to a rally in Indianapolis. He ended up losing Missouri by a whisker but peeled Indiana out of the GOP column.
originally posted by: Natas0114
5 pages of replies, and I got not one modicum of info about what Trump said at the rally. Come on people. I really wanted to know what was said at his rally, seeing as how the local news wouldn't air it.
So "We should take out their families" doesnt come in to play? Thats Trumps words, or is there some twisted justification for that
Or advocating shutting down media because you dont like what they say?
Or making a watch list for all muslims?