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Hillary's lead completely gone - Trump in lead

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posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:12 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux

The exact same website you link,

Has Trump losing in FL, OH, and NC, states he -must- win, just to -tie-.
edit on 13-10-2016 by imjack because: (no reason given)




posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:16 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux

I don't believe polls, but I don't like being manipulated by the Clinton political machine either. I wish November would get here so we can stop with the crap slinging, BS and bad manners. Let's just vote already.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:16 PM
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a reply to: spiritualarchitect

The reason Trump's rallies have such a high attendance and are viewed so often is not an indication of votes, it indicates a personality cult.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:23 PM
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a reply to: imjack

It's a tight race and polls are just a snap shot of a sampling at a given time. Another thing about these polls is that Democrats seem to be over sampled, which I think says a lot when viewing that Trump at or near the margin of error in many. This I believe is the first national poll after the 2nd debate:

White House Watch: Trump Takes the Lead

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.

Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%).

Trump has 75% support among Republicans, nearly identical to Clinton’s 76% backing among Democrats. He has 15% of the Democratic vote; she picks up 13% GOP support. Trump holds a double-digit advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Trump remains ahead among whites and has a slight lead among other minority voters. He appears to be making a dent in the black vote, but blacks still overwhelmingly favor Clinton.

Ninety (90%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing choose Clinton. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 89% prefer Trump.


I just gather Clinton should have run away with this a long time ago and she hasn't. Instead Trump is still competitive and this is a very tight race.





edit on 13-10-2016 by mkultra11 because: fixed link



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:24 PM
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originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: spiritualarchitect

The reason Trump's rallies have such a high attendance and are viewed so often is not an indication of votes, it indicates a personality cult.


It's called voter enthusiasm. Something Hillary does not have and she already has her cult of personality.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:28 PM
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originally posted by: imjack
a reply to: DupontDeux

The exact same website you link,

Has Trump losing in FL, OH, and NC, states he -must- win, just to -tie-.


Yes, yes, to be sure, and I am not doubting that.

What I am seeing, though, is a major, rather sudden, shift in polling on the national level. And I have not heard anything that would explain it. Hence my asking if I missed something or if it is a fluke.

I read that Trump is done for.
I read that he is deeper trouble than ever before.

But that does not seem to be what the polls indicate. I know popular vote does not get you the win, but it is curious to me that America as a whole seems rather MORE than less likely to vote for him, when he is supposedly done for.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:28 PM
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originally posted by: mkultra11
a reply to: imjack

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.




Who needs polls when you can just lie?



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:30 PM
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Just like we saw with Brexit, polling in this election isn't all that accurate as the Trump side, much like the "stay" side with Brexit, was a very unpopular public opinion and many keep it to themselves.

We'll find out the truth when people show up to the voting booths.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:32 PM
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originally posted by: imjack

originally posted by: mkultra11
a reply to: imjack

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.




Who needs polls when you can just lie?


I am not sure, what you are getting at- the picture confirms Jack's post.

The latest poll is of October 13 - October 12 shows the 4 point lead mentioned. Just follow his link of you doubt it.
edit on 13-10-2016 by DupontDeux because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:35 PM
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This horse race will go back and forth until the last 10 days when the polls will suddenly become accurate in order to keep their credibility going forward.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:35 PM
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If you do the 4 way it shows that Clinton is ahead, and even the trump/Clinton line up shows Clinton ahead.

What I personally like about that sight is that it gives an average from all sources that are reporting in, for each candidate.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:38 PM
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Trump is getting a lot of free press right now.

Google Trends



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:40 PM
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Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily

r asmussenreports
Might wanna research there track record before getting so giddy.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 05:48 PM
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originally posted by: DupontDeux

originally posted by: imjack

originally posted by: mkultra11
a reply to: imjack

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.




Who needs polls when you can just lie?


I am not sure, what you mean - the picture confirms Jack's post.

The latest poll is of October 13 - OCtober 12 shows the 4 point lead mentioned.


The wording of 'consecutive' threw me off. That isn't bound to be true for long either.

The Rasmussen only polls 1,500 people. That's less than .0005% of our population. Notice the 26k poll with Clinton 6 points ahead? It's like finding Waldo among all these National winning Clinton Polls.


edit on 13-10-2016 by imjack because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:07 PM
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a reply to: imjack

Yeah, wow 24k! That is so insane it is weird. Does SM mean Social Media?

I regularly consult a professional statistician about American political polling and he ensures me that there usually is no need to go beyond around 1k respondents which gives you a +/- 3 margin of error.

1.5k as in Rasmussen's case is itself a high number of respondents and gives you a +/- 2.5 margin. Also, look at the other polls, next to no one exceeds Rasmussen's amount of responders and by far the most polls are done with fewer.

I would love if you could post the link to the page you got the list from. For some reason I cannot for the life of me see the number of respondents anywhere on RCP! I must be looking at the wrong list.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:26 PM
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Never believed for one minute that he ever lost the lead either. Its simply not that close.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:26 PM
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After the BREXIT polling failure in the UK, I view polling with a jaundiced eye.

In the USA I believe you may have a phenomenon where people do not want to publicly associate themselves with Trump, but once they are in the voting booth they may vote for him ... not as a vote for him but as a vote to stop Clinton.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:29 PM
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a reply to: Unity_99

Are you blind? he is finished.
How long will you all continue to delude yourselves? Oh I know when Clinton wins by thinking Trump was in the lead anyhow you can all bleat that they cheated.



posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:34 PM
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a reply to: DupontDeux


It's nice to have hope.






posted on Oct, 13 2016 @ 06:36 PM
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originally posted by: DupontDeux
a reply to: imjack
I regularly consult a professional statistician about American political polling and he ensures me that there usually is no need to go beyond around 1k respondents which gives you a +/- 3 margin of error.


Trump supporters will literally spin anything.

Think about what you just said. It's literally selective to only Trump.

Polls with less people are less accurate. It doesn't take a genius to know that.

This is also why Clinton's points go down, as polls add more people too.

How can you can blatantly ignore the +9 to +14 points Clinton, in numerous polls near 1,000 votes? The same way you ignore these Trump polls.

Either way, what you said is beyond dumb. 1,000 people is 20 people per state. That's not accurate. Don't even get me started on how they select them.
edit on 13-10-2016 by imjack because: (no reason given)




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