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What are the chances of other intelligent life existing in our galaxy / universe?

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posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:34 PM
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If our universe is infinite in size, then there are infinite Earths out there, with the exact same geography and everything. I don't think the universe is that infinite. This question seems to be under debate. Is our universe large enough to produce other Earth-like planets? Some with humans on them? It is really a question of numbers. Our own galaxy is big enough to harbor planets similar to Earth, but little is known about how likely intelligent life is to evolve elsewhere.


If the universe is infinite, and if the universe is homogeneous and isotropic on the largest scales, then there will be an infinite number of identical Earths in that infinite universe.


Source

With really large numbers, like infinity, you get to see things in a new light. If the universe was that large, there would be an identical Earth out there right now with identical people and identical geography in every way. What we know for certain is that the universe is as big as we can see, which is a sphere with a radius of 47 billion light years.


The universe may be infinite, but we can only see a finite section of it due to the finite speed of light. We can only see those parts from which light has had time to reach us since the beginning of the universe - which means we can (in theory) see a spherical universe with radius of about 47 billion light years.


How big the universe is could determine the chances of advanced cultures similar to those on Earth existing elsewhere, or even more advanced cultures.

Even our galaxy is big enough to hold Earth-like planets.


According to the new analysis, a whopping 22% of sunlike stars have planets more or less the size of Earth in their habitable zones. That adds up to about 20 billion Earths in our galaxy alone, says lead author Erik Petigura, of the University of California, Berkeley.


Time

If life is prevalent enough to form on those Earth-like planets at a high rate, or even a low rate, then it is only a question of the probability of advanced life such as humans evolving. One thing to note is that other civilizations could have come and gone already or have yet to come. The probability of advanced civilizations existing at the same time as ours is lower. So what is the probability of intelligent life besides us existing in this galaxy right now?


The odds of an alien civilization coexisting with humans is often calculated by the Drake equation. It was first proposed by Frank Drake in 1961. Simply take the rate at which stars form in our galaxy and multiply it by the fraction of stars with planets, the average number of planets per star that could support life, the fraction of those that actually develop life, the fraction of life bearing planets that develop civilization, the fraction of civilizations that have detectible signals, and finally the length of time a civilization might last.

Crunch the numbers and you have the number of civilizations in our galaxy capable of communicating with us. When Drake first proposed the equation, the values for each term were largely unknown, but we now have good estimates for many of them. We know that most stars have planets, and the odds of a potentially habitable planet is actually quite high, possibly as high as 100 billion in our galaxy alone.

Unfortunately the really important factors of the Drake equation are still completely unknown. On how many potentially habitable planets does life actually arise? How many of those give rise to civilizations? How long does a typical civilization last? No idea. Depending on the answer to those questions the number of civilizations in our galaxy could range from hundreds of thousands to only one.


Forbes

It turns out we don't have enough information to calculate the probability of intelligent life forming in our galaxy, or in other places of the universe for that matter. My guess is that other civilizations have existed or do exist in our galaxy alone. Other galaxies in the universe probably also harbor intelligent life.




posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:37 PM
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The chances are 99.999999% although some form of intelligent life had to be first.. And that could have been us..



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:38 PM
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a reply to: darkbake

You walk outside, see a garden and go, hey where'd that garden come from? Someone must have planted it. Where'd they get the seeds? From another garden.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:40 PM
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They're out there, I seent it. Literally though, look at cases such as Zimbabwe 1994 when All those kids experienced it. I myself have seen 1 UFO. nothing currently known could do what I saw, since then I've been a believer and that was about 6 years ago.

When you look at it from a mathematical stand point I believe the term "probability" holds no merit in a specific situation such as this one., I look at more so along the line as "where are they at" assuming that the universe is indeed infinite.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:41 PM
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originally posted by: intrptr
You walk outside, see a garden and go, hey where'd that garden come from? Someone must have planted it. Where'd they get the seeds? From another garden.

But where did the seeds from the original garden come from?



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:41 PM
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I cant remember the exact equation, But its been worked out and its a mathematical certainty.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:42 PM
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Pretty good.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:48 PM
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originally posted by: ColaTesla
I cant remember the exact equation, But its been worked out and its a mathematical certainty.


Here's the math as of today:

Number of planets we know of with life on them: 1
Number of planets where we know how life "arose" or got on them: 0
Number of other planets out there with life on them that we know about: 0



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:49 PM
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I say refer to the revamped Drake equation. It seems to be pretty legit.... www.dailymail.co.uk... de-Kepler-data.html



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:51 PM
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Galaxy is a small space in the scheme of things. The Universe ? Now that's a big big question. I'd say inevitably to the universe.
Maybe not in the galaxy ? The universe is a big place and a lot of money could be saved by switching to Geico.....



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:51 PM
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The chances are very close to, but not quite 100%. Statistics always leaves a little wiggle room for probability to operate. Having said that, it's unlikely anyone else has managed to get here, just as we have not managed to get anywhere else other than across the street. There appears to be a built in speed limit. We may have it wrong, but somebody is going to have to prove that with something other than imagination because we can't just dismiss it because we don't like it.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 03:55 PM
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originally posted by: Blue Shift

originally posted by: intrptr
You walk outside, see a garden and go, hey where'd that garden come from? Someone must have planted it. Where'd they get the seeds? From another garden.

But where did the seeds from the original garden come from?


Some where else.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 04:00 PM
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originally posted by: Blue Shift

Here's the math as of today:

Number of planets we know of with life on them: 1
Number of planets where we know how life "arose" or got on them: 0
Number of other planets out there with life on them that we know about: 0

This is precisely why the Drake "equation" is total bulls#. It has no basis in reality at all.

People using it to justify their assumptions should stop calling themselves scientists.



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 04:01 PM
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originally posted by: Blue Shift

originally posted by: intrptr
You walk outside, see a garden and go, hey where'd that garden come from? Someone must have planted it. Where'd they get the seeds? From another garden.

But where did the seeds from the original garden come from?



As soon as the environment settled down to be relatively habitable, life appeared. Just half a billion years beyond the formation of the Earth. So how did life make the jump from raw chemicals to the evolutionary process we see today? The term for this mystery is abiogenesis and scientists are working on several theories to explain it.



One of the first clues is amino acids, the building blocks of life. In 1953, Stanley Miller and Harold Urey demonstrated that amino acids could form naturally in the environment of the early Earth. They replicated the atmosphere and chemicals present, and then used electric sparks to simulate lightning strikes.


Universe Today

Tons of cool stuff in this article. One of the theories is that early life comes from outer space on comets, so yeah, that supports the theory that life exists elsewhere



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 04:06 PM
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The real answer is 100% yes, course there is other life in our universe or possibly our own galaxy.

Take it like this, we are here and have no idea why, God/evolution or both, yes/no... We're all here none the less...Now factor that with a whole universe and it adds up with other planets with life.

We're the Alien species (partly come from space dust etc) that could have come light years from our galaxy but say little about it, now if were all from space rock/asteroid impacts then how many other planets have had the same impact? (hundreds/thousands, million's?) we may never know the exact amount but can say YES other life exists out side (within) our own galaxy and possibly many light years from us... Ether way were all Alien in origin.
edit on 3-10-2016 by DarkvsLight29 because: (no reason given)

edit on 3-10-2016 by DarkvsLight29 because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 04:31 PM
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What about our own planet?

ATS thread: Scientists confirm dolphins talk?.

I linked in the Dolphins Talk in 3D thread. I just asked, "Don't all species have to know 3D?" which kind makes you feel less supreme over all other creatures. Which begs the question, "Is there intelligent life on earth" which may lead you to answer you may not like.

My guess, all that it is, 100% chance of other life in this universe including our own galaxy.

Btw. Drake's Equation is off. The more and more we see of universe the numbers just for stars alone increases. When the James Webb Space Telescope get up and running that number will continue to rise in what ever direction we look. So, yeah, 100%.
edit on 3-10-2016 by TEOTWAWKIAIFF because: no intelligence here! Can't spell simple werds



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 04:40 PM
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I like the Men in Black theory. The entire universe on the cats collar.
Our entire universe could be a chunk of sand on some giants sandal.
Or the analogy of the Ant hill next to the highway.
Ask them what speed the cars are going.
They can't answer, we are not on their scale.
The whole universe may be a drop on a microscope slide.

If this is the case, we may only be big enough to observe creatures our size.

Mind blowing stuff





posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 05:25 PM
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Your question assumes that our "reality" (including what we call a "universe") is not a simulation... Some theorists believe there is enough evidence to conclude that we are all participants in a generated version of reality like a giant video-game. If this is true, then the "programmers" could have included/excluded whatever they deemed important/necessary. Perhaps in this particular simulation there are no other "intelligent" beings...

Again, if this is a simulation, the question might be are there other "intelligent" beings besides the "programmers" that exist in the BASE reality where the simulation servers reside. Perhaps there are more than one simulation- the BASE reality beings programmed a sim... then the "avatars" residing within that sim programmed another one and we experience that one. Who knows? Maybe even those in the BASE reality are asking the same questions and that might be a reason to create simulations to see what is possible...

I get confuzzled trying to wrap my 3 remaining brain-cells around the whole idea.

Scientific American - Are we living in a Computer Simulation?
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edit on 1032016 by seattlerat because: mai spilling sugs

edit on 1032016 by seattlerat because: (no reason given)



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 05:30 PM
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The universe is not infinite by definition, the point is that galaxys are shifting away from each other and the universe itself increases by size at the speed of light +1 (..) and therefore its infinite size (untill it may collapse with another universe) - the mass within our universe on the other hand is quite stable and therefore the amount of galaxys/stars/planets/whatever is very limited when it comes to the term "infinite" .



posted on Oct, 3 2016 @ 06:21 PM
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Could be were looking for the wrong size Aliens. Infinitely small, infinitely large ? An example.... Beings the size of ants ?



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