posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 07:17 AM
Originally posted by bodrul
since there is loads of talk about Iran or syria being the next target of the US of A
if this does happen will blair take britain to war with the USA
on a wild goose chase?
This is far from a wild goose chase - Iran poses a greater threat than Iraq did prior to Gulf War 1. Hopefully id like to see Blair along with the
rest of Europe backing Bush this time. Alot of the rhetoric coming of Europe along the line of "whats in the past has past" suggests Europe might
support US on Iran.
The reasons for the present war in Iraq are not as simple as just Oil - there was a conicendence of a nunber of factors which made the case for war.
For many of these
Firstly were the ones which affect the publics opinion.
1) the Humanitarian Issues of a Dictator
2) the threat - if you were were aware at the time the sole focus was the protection of allied troops in Turkey and in the longer term greater Europe.
This was the threat of medium range ballistic missiles which the UN inspectors were keeping a close eye on. The so called 45 minute claim was refering
to tactical artilery weapons which were under the discretion of local commanders. Much like how Russian generals in Cuba had tactical nuclear anti
ship missiles at the height of the crisis. Either way Saddam has used Chemical weapons in the past and desired to develop both their delivery and
deployment in the future.
Secondly are the clinchers which enabled the confict to reap some return in the long run.
1) Oil - as much as it was to secure future reserves it was to deny it to China -
2) The credibility of future threats of military force. At the time there were three countries under the spot light - Iran, Iraq and North Korea -
People will also recognise China in the longer term (Along with India - the main reason for not signing the Kyoto Aggreement on emissions). Invading
Iraq was the cheaper alternative in every sense of the word. While the US pumbled Iraq the US had its eyes fixed on Iran and North Korea.
The conflict with Iran will be totally different to Iraq. While maintaining the threat of invasion i feel the US will resort to more "decapitation"
sorties. Firstly focusing on their nuclear and deployment facilities followed by the leadership.
North Korea is significantly more complex. They are dug in pretty deep with their thousands upon thousands of artilery positions targeted at Soule. In
addition is the likely hood of a Tiawan-China-Japan escalation.