LATIMES: Trump at Biggest Lead

originally posted by: Nikola014
Trump has a real chance of winning by a landslide.

Can't wait for debates

We may have a controversy of popular vote vs electoral votes IMHO. I think it will be quite a big divide on this election. Especially if Trumps popular number votes are in the millions over Hillary's, which at this point is what I'm expecting.

In 2000, George W. Bush was declared the winner of the general election and became the 43rd president, but he didn’t win the popular vote either. Al Gore holds that distinction, garnering about 540,000 more votes than Bush. However, Bush won the electoral vote, 271 to 266. www.factcheck.org...

originally posted by: Agit8dChop
I still think the polls are rigged.

When its a close race, the media can always fudge the figures and put their guy on top.

Media most often fudges numbers via sampling and weighting when they do.

Some polls are more trustworthy and accurate than others.

When Media does release bias polls through sampling and weighting the motivations are usually as follows..

(A) Fund raising...If a candidate looks like they are going to be trounced, donors don't like to place losing bets..Certain media outlets with large biases will release bias polls to make the candidate look more viable and within reach thus encourage donors to donate.

(B) Ad sales/Viewership/Click through....Media makes money via more viewers/readers the closer the race. People pay less attention if they think they know the outcome. A close race literally means more money for news media.

WHAT THEY DONT DO...after fund-raising is mostly over...and within the last 60 days of election...they don't decide to show their favorite candidate as winning by a big margin...because that might discourage people showing up to the polls and voting. If it looks like a close race, more people vote.

So the logic that media outlet X likes Clinton and thus shows her in the lead is false...If they are bias for Clinton and show her as having a huge lead...that will discourage voters to show up and vote for her. A close race is what encourages people to endure the inconvenience of voting because they get a sense that every vote matters.

The Clinton Campaign actually prefers close polling, because it drives people to the polls.

originally posted by: StoutBroux

originally posted by: Nikola014
Trump has a real chance of winning by a landslide.

Can't wait for debates

We may have a controversy of popular vote vs electoral votes IMHO. I think it will be quite a big divide on this election. Especially if Trumps popular number votes are in the millions over Hillary's, which at this point is what I'm expecting.

I expect the opposite..
More a repeat of Pres. Bush losing the popular vote, but getting the electoral vote via the Florida recount.

Florida is positioned to be the most important swing-state this election (again)...and it is close there.

Florida's Governor and Attorney general are in Trump's pocket. If there is a recount, expect mayhem. Pam Bondi, Florida's AG is already the subject of a Criminal Corruption complaint (along with Trump) for soliciting the illegal payment from the Trump Foundation to her political campaign to drop the Trump University lawsuit. Now picture her over-seeing a recount that could put Trump in the WH?

Virtually all the polls show Clinton winning the Popular Vote. The electoral college is where Trump can game the system.

No they aren't. Some polls are bad, some polls are good. They are ALL useful if you can think critically enough to understand them.

While this is typically true, all of it is out the window this election.

Mostly, because it has become almost socially unacceptable to vocalize support for Trump in mixed company. Therefore, some folks are giving incorrect responses to polls, or simply not participating in them.

I want to see THIS poll...

"Are you voting for Hillary?"
"If YES, is it because you support Hillary, or because you are anti-Trump?"

That would be a fun poll.

In my workplace, you're putting your job on the line if you openly support Trump vs. Hillary, or even vs. 3rd party whack choices.

a reply to: Gazrok

Yeah but most polling is anonymous - they have no reason to lie when Gallup calls them.

So sure, you do a poll where people have to actually own up to their support, then I might be inclined to agree.

But otherwise, this whole 'people are scared to support Trump openly ' is a really bad excuse for why polling would be otherwise skewed this season.

Especially considering that historically, there's always this gap closing in the polls which turn the election into a dead heat, post convention bumps.

Almost the same scenario was apparent between Obama and Mitt in 2012.

~Tenth

a reply to: Gazrok

Yep. TONS of people are going to vote for Trump, but they'll never admit that they vote for Trump. Its the silent majority (aka the Trump Phenomena) that the MSM keeps discussing.

In the end, if we keep going like we are now, I suspect that Trump wins by a good 10-12% overall. Hillary and her campaign are dying a death of a thousand paper cuts right now.

a reply to: Bloodydagger

I hope you're right, I really do.

originally posted by: Ohanka
a reply to: Bloodydagger

I hope you're right, I really do.

Openly supporting Trump is kind of taboo in places around America (depending on your state, area etc) - So a lot of folks are supporting Trump in secret and can't wait to get to the voting booth for him.

^This is what I like to call the second layer of Trump support below his top layer of vocal support.

The man is extremely popular. His rally's need Football stadiums because tens of thousands show up. Hillary on the other hand, needs small cafeterias, conference and seminar rooms for her rally's.

"No family will have to pay the death tax. American workers have paid taxes their whole lives. It’s just plain wrong and most people agree with that. We will repeal it.”
--Donald Trump, August 8, 2016