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Clinton pulling away in Pennsylvania up 8 points

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posted on Aug, 31 2016 @ 04:02 PM
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originally posted by: carewemust

How accurate was Monmouth in 2008/2010/2012/2014? A poll's historical accuracy is what we need to know first and foremost.


According to Nate Silver, in the final polls of 2012 Monmouth was off by 4.1 percent in favor of Romney.




posted on Aug, 31 2016 @ 04:10 PM
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originally posted by: MysticPearl
2012:
2.9M democrats and 2.6M republicans voted


Are you sure that's a summary of registered Democrats and Republicans who voted or just the vote total for Romney and Obama?

There are 4.1 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania and 3.1 registered Democrats which would explain the weighting of the survey commented on earlier.

The people doing these polls aren't (generally) trying to fake the results. They're trying to get it right for their reputation. Though if you look at the results of these polls a large number of them wind up showing a slight Republican bias.



posted on Aug, 31 2016 @ 04:16 PM
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originally posted by: UnBreakable

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox
I'm in PA, and I can tell you for a fact that Trump yard signs outnumber Hillary by 500:0, how's that for a poll?


Anecdotal evidence is not very good for a poll.



but it's not anecdotal, it's observational.


Yes, observational is most of the time anecdotal.

www.dictionary.com...


based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation: anecdotal evidence.


Why dismiss it?

It could also be a fact.


I dismiss it because we have other measures that were scientifically conducted.

Trump is losing in PA...I don't care how many signs you see.


Please do tell the statistics and metrics used in the scientifically conducted polls..............like disqualifying middle age white males from taking part?


Do you have proof they disqualify middle age white males?



posted on Aug, 31 2016 @ 04:19 PM
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originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: UnBreakable

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox

originally posted by: kruphix

originally posted by: FlyingFox
I'm in PA, and I can tell you for a fact that Trump yard signs outnumber Hillary by 500:0, how's that for a poll?


Anecdotal evidence is not very good for a poll.



but it's not anecdotal, it's observational.


Yes, observational is most of the time anecdotal.

www.dictionary.com...


based on personal observation, case study reports, or random investigations rather than systematic scientific evaluation: anecdotal evidence.


Why dismiss it?

It could also be a fact.


I dismiss it because we have other measures that were scientifically conducted.

Trump is losing in PA...I don't care how many signs you see.


Please do tell the statistics and metrics used in the scientifically conducted polls..............like disqualifying middle age white males from taking part?


Do you have proof they disqualify middle age white males?


What probably happened was that they were looking for a certain amount of people to represent various demographics and they already had enough middle age white males. That's how a scientific survey like that works.



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