Storm Warning: Q Poll shows Trump down 10

STORM WARNING: Q POLL SHOWS TRUMP DOWN 10
If you want to know why Donald Trump has been throwing haymakers lately – calling Hillary Clinton “a bigot” and opening a path for illegal immigrants to remain in the country – you have your answer.

The first worthwhile national poll in more than a week is out and the trajectory of the race after the conventions seems to have intensified.

In the Quinnipiac University poll out this afternoon, Trump now trails Clinton by 10 points in a head-to-head matchup and by 7 points in a four-way race with the Libertarian and Green Party nominees included.

Source: Fox News

I thought this might be the case, with the changes in his immigration stance (which was then changed again.) Apparently his new campaign manager is trying to make him stay on target with a more moderate stance (hence his reading teleprompter speeches instead of rambling in front of a microphone.)

What's a little boggling in all this is that it's a Fox News source, which I expect to report in Trump's favor.

They add

Now, you can feel free to not make too much of any individual poll. But before any Trump enthusiasts pitch this one, remember a few things: It is from one of the best pollsters, one that was right on the money in forecasting Trump’s primary wins; it is in line with other top-notch pollsters’ findings from earlier this month; and it includes a likely voter screen.

They also asked key questions about WHY people were voting and their views on his message..

- And in a good metric for the relative levels of voter loyalty, “64 percent of Trump supporters say they are voting mainly anti-Clinton, while 25 percent say they are voting pro-Trump. Among Clinton supporters, 47 percent are mainly anti-Trump while 32 percent are pro-Clinton"

So there's a lot of protest voters around, which is intriguing and suggests that if the protest voters' choice of candidate manages to disappoint them, they will probably stay home.

The article concludes that the Republicans are in real trouble

This all adds up to a moment for Trump and the Republicans to radically reconsider what they’re doing. No modern candidate trailing by so much with less than 11 weeks to go has ever won the presidency.

I'm not sure any race has had such unlikeable main candidates before, so the impact may be hard to call.

The Quinnpac poll (original source) that the article is discussing is here August 25, 2016 - Clinton Tops 50 Percent, Leads Trump By 10 Points, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Like Clinton More Than Trump - But Not Much

And if you look at the Quinnpac data, fewer registered Republicans will be voting for Trump. Take a minute and check this out... quite interesting.

You don't have to win polls. Look at Brexit and mid terms in the US. You have to win on Nov 8th. That is all that matters. Right now across the board she is getting weaker, not stronger and the trend is that will continue to manifest because she is tapped out. No longer campaigning, content on coasting to the finish line and more and more negative facts exposed about her and her staff.

a reply to: Byrd

That's interesting, but it's still WAY too early to take any polls and give them much weight--debates still haven't even started, and the vast majority of the voting public doesn't really start paying attention until then. They both have a lot of time to aid or hinder their race toward the presidency.

That said, here is the sample that they polled and the percentage of party affiliation and whatnot (from the poll in the OP): qu.de

The breakdown is: Republican (29%); Democrat (34%); Independent (31%), and; Other/DK/NA (6%).

Now compare that to the breakdown of registered voters as noted by Gallup back in January:

The breakdown is: Republican (26%); Democrat (29%); Independent (42%).

I think that these statistical differences, plus the fact that Quinnipiac only polled 1,498 "likely voters" for the poll, add to my point that polls like these mean nothing, especially this early on. There are still way too many variables that remain to happen to have any idea how this terrible election season will end.

Where is our paddle, and why is the creek all brown, America?

ETA: Also of very important note is that, in this poll (as much as I don't put much weight in it), if Johnson and Stein are considered, then Johnson gets 10% of the vote if the elections were held today. That's great to see that a third party has grown that much since the last election cycle, but I'm quite certain that as debates happen and the election gets closer, that people will revert to mindless voting and vote the party with which their most comfortable, leaving a third party way down closer to only one percent. I hope that my pessimism is mistaken, though.

a reply to: Byrd

I'm not suggesting Q intentionally did this, but if you look at their sample data this result was predictable. Their sample demographics were skewed. www.qu.edu...
52% polled were women, a group he's losing to Clinton by 60-32% margin. Only 34% of those polled lacked a college degree. 60% of Americans over the age of 25 don't have a college degree, and Clinton holds more support from degreed voters than Trump while she's getting shellacked by non degreed voters. I think this is a case of a Q poll that doesn't do a great job of representing the actual voter demographic breakdown we'll see in November and that's introduced an additional gap between the two candidates.

a reply to: SlapMonkey

That's interesting, but it's still WAY too early to take any polls and give them much weight--debates still haven't even started, and the vast majority of the voting public doesn't really start paying attention until then. They both have a lot of time to aid or hinder their race toward the presidency.

Research strongly suggests otherwise.

In fact, most people who pay attention to the debates are people that are already solidly supporting one of the candidates and they are tuning in to "cheer" for them.

washingtonmonthly.com...
www.newsmax.com...
voteforthepresidentonline.com...

a reply to: kruphix

Research has not encountered a race where both candidates were so despised, either.

You can bank on these numbers all that you want to--I'll take my usual method of let's-wait-and-see.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

I absolutely agree with the way that you looked at this, but this is supposedly a poll of "likely voters," not the whole of America. Likely voters probably have a relatively similar division of percentages like this poll, although I have my own issues with how they split it up, too.

Good job diving deeper than just he numbers!

A little good news as we crawl into the election...yet sad choices all around.
Cheers

I don't understand you ATS.

What's this obsession of posting almost daily poll results threads? What do you think you're going to accomplish? I mean, there's not much to discuss. It's a poll.

originally posted by: LifeMode
You don't have to win polls. Look at Brexit and mid terms in the US. You have to win on Nov 8th. That is all that matters. Right now across the board she is getting weaker, not stronger and the trend is that will continue to manifest because she is tapped out. No longer campaigning, content on coasting to the finish line and more and more negative facts exposed about her and her staff.

(Looks at Clinton campaign schedule. Re-reads post. Laughs a lot)
Nope.

originally posted by: SlapMonkey
a reply to: kruphix

Research has not encountered a race where both candidates were so despised, either.

You can bank on these numbers all that you want to--I'll take my usual method of let's-wait-and-see.

Well of course you have to wait and see.

But to dismiss polling numbers to gauge where the election is currently isn't very realistic. You better bet that Trump is using poll numbers to help his campaign decide what and where he needs to focus on.

Polls have proven to be very accurate in Presidential elections.

originally posted by: Nikola014
I don't understand you ATS.

What's this obsession of posting almost daily poll results threads? What do you think you're going to accomplish? I mean, there's not much to discuss. It's a poll.

I can guarantee you that Trump is obsessed with the polls. Why do you think he has changed his staff 3 times and taken on a different style of campaigning. You don't flipflop in the middle of a campaign that's successful.

originally posted by: Nikola014
What's this obsession of posting almost daily poll results threads?

Daily personal bias support and affirmation. Many people feel the need to have their world view supported by some measurable majority, be it the majority of a discrete demographic group or the majority of a broader collective... most people have a yearning for their opinions to receive communal support.

In the case of these routinely reported polls, three men make a tiger.

originally posted by: JaMeDoIt
A little good news as we crawl into the election...yet sad choices all around.
Cheers

I try to look at polls that have some sort of track record and an open methodology and breakdown of answers (like Quinnpac) when I report on a political poll. I try to avoid Internet polls, Mystery Methods polls, and ones where you can't see what the questions were.

originally posted by: burdman30ott6

originally posted by: Nikola014
What's this obsession of posting almost daily poll results threads?

Daily personal bias support and affirmation. Many people feel the need to have their world view supported by some measurable majority, be it the majority of a discrete demographic group or the majority of a broader collective... most people have a yearning for their opinions to receive communal support.

In the case of these routinely reported polls, three men make a tiger.

I'm just curious, actually.

..and occasionally horrified. But curious.

a reply to: LifeMode
Tapped out? Getting weaker? OMG. Not even worth arguing against .
Then...
No longer campaigning?? From Reno a day ago. On TV in a phone interview yesterday afternoon. Yeah she's coasting. Everything you claim is a wish not fact.