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originally posted by: Nucleardoom
a reply to: ipsedixit
Trump is on the ropes. Let's finish him, but coldly. It's not the time to become part of the mob.
Nice fairy tale you've got there. On the ropes? Hardly...here's a couple election season tips:
1) Don't trust the MSM narrative because it's pure bullsh*t.
2) Nobody is talking about the key to this election - the silent majority.
Trump 2016
Donald Trump has 19 states firmly in his corner right now. That may sound impressive, at least until you consider that only three of them have 10 or more EV (and Tennessee and Indiana only have 11 EV each). The only big prize that Trump can count on is Texas, with its whopping 38 EV. Other than that, Trump is winning a lot of very rural states without a lot of population, which only gives him a total of 145 EV that he can currently count on. This leaves him an enormous 125 EV to make up if he has any prayer of winning. Trump only has two states even leaning his direction right now, and Missouri and South Carolina only have 19 EV between them. Even if you add in all the Leans Trump and Too Close To Call states, Trump only comes up with a grand total of 212 EV. That is 58 EV short of the goal.
Hillary Clinton has built on her enormous advantage this week. Last time around she had 18 states with a combined 210 EV in her pocket. This time around, Clinton has 23 states she can count on, and they add up to 273 EV. This is three more than she needs to win. Right now, Clinton could lose every current tossup state (even the ones leaning her direction), and she’d still win the election. To put this another way, Clinton doesn’t even need the following states to claim victory: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Trump could run the table in all these battlegrounds, and she’d still win. If you add in the three states leaning her direction, Clinton now has 326 EV. Trump’s number, by comparison, is 164 EV. She’s currently beating him by 162 EV — meaning her total is almost exactly double Trump’s total.
originally posted by: ipsedixit
a reply to: windword
I hear you. I'm not sure what prompted Webster's apology and retraction. It may have been a "shot across the bow" from Donald Trump's lawyers.
The Daily Mail had not issued a retraction as of Monday evening. It appears to be in a different position, having mentioned the Suzy report only briefly in a broader article about Melania Trump. What's more, the Daily Mail article is skeptical of the escort claim:
Earlier this month, a Slovenian magazine, Suzy, published a front page story claiming Melania’s modelling agency in New York, run by New York entrepreneur, Paolo Zampolli, also operated as an escort agency for wealthy clients. . . .
This week, the Mail spoke to the author of the piece, under the condition of anonymity. He insisted the seemingly fantastical story was correct, but all he would say to corroborate it was the information came from sources in America.
Mr Zampolli, however, was very clear. He told the Mail the allegations were "[expletive] rubbish." "My agency was never an escort agency. . . . Come on," he said.
There is no evidence to back up these startling claims made in Suzy magazine.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
2016 Electoral Math — Hillary Moves Up
Donald Trump has 19 states firmly in his corner right now. That may sound impressive, at least until you consider that only three of them have 10 or more EV (and Tennessee and Indiana only have 11 EV each). The only big prize that Trump can count on is Texas, with its whopping 38 EV. Other than that, Trump is winning a lot of very rural states without a lot of population, which only gives him a total of 145 EV that he can currently count on. This leaves him an enormous 125 EV to make up if he has any prayer of winning. Trump only has two states even leaning his direction right now, and Missouri and South Carolina only have 19 EV between them. Even if you add in all the Leans Trump and Too Close To Call states, Trump only comes up with a grand total of 212 EV. That is 58 EV short of the goal.
Hillary Clinton has built on her enormous advantage this week. Last time around she had 18 states with a combined 210 EV in her pocket. This time around, Clinton has 23 states she can count on, and they add up to 273 EV. This is three more than she needs to win. Right now, Clinton could lose every current tossup state (even the ones leaning her direction), and she’d still win the election. To put this another way, Clinton doesn’t even need the following states to claim victory: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Trump could run the table in all these battlegrounds, and she’d still win. If you add in the three states leaning her direction, Clinton now has 326 EV. Trump’s number, by comparison, is 164 EV. She’s currently beating him by 162 EV — meaning her total is almost exactly double Trump’s total.
You can choose to keep your head in the sand, but it's going to only make it THAT much worse for you come election day.
PS: They said the same thing during Romney's election. "Don't trust the media and the polls. Romney is doing MUCH better." Then he lost. Just like the polls were showing.
First, it allows us to ask the same people for their opinion repeatedly over time. In comparison to most polls, this leads to much more stable outcomes; changes that we see are true changes in people's opinions and not the result of random fluctuations in who gets asked the questions.
Second, we may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial “middle” (i.e., not closely aligned with either candidate) by allowing respondents to more precisely assign their own numerical probability (or percent chance) to both the likelihood that they will vote and the likelihood that they will vote for a particular candidate. By comparison, traditional polls may not be fully capturing the intentions of these voters because they rely on less precise qualitative metrics (such as somewhat likely and somewhat unlikely) when asking respondents to indicate for whom they may vote and the likelihood that they will vote.
originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: Nucleardoom
That's just link to the LA Times' homepage. No poll though, but I am aware of the poll you are referring to. There is a reason that poll is flawed, but nevertheless it is literally the ONLY poll saying Trump is in the lead. If any poll is to be taken with a grain of salt it would be the only out liar among all the polls taken across the country.
Lawyers for Melania Trump on Thursday filed suit for $150m damages against the Daily Mail in Maryland state court. The wife of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is also suing a blogger, Webster Tarpley, from the state in question.
In a statement, Trump’s lawyer, Charles Harder, said: “These defendants made several statements about Mrs Trump that are 100% false and tremendously damaging to her personal and professional reputation [and] broadcast their lies to millions of people throughout the US and the world – without any justification.
“Their many lies include, among others, that Mrs Trump supposedly was an ‘escort’ in the 1990s before she met her husband. Defendants’ actions are so egregious, malicious and harmful to Mrs Trump that her damages are estimated at $150m.”
Melania Trump’s lawsuit against me is without merit. Mrs. Trump is a public figure actively engaged in the Trump for president campaign. We are confident that Mrs. Trump will not be able to meet her high burden of proving the statements published about her on my website were defamatory in any way. Her lawsuit is a blatant attempt to intimidate not only me but journalists of all stripes into remaining silent with regard to public figures. This lawsuit is a direct affront to First Amendment principles and free speech in our democratic society.
—Webster G. Tarpley
Steve Klepper, an appellate lawyer for the Baltimore law firm Kramon & Graham, said the inclusion of a blogger in the suit indicated legal maneuvering.
He told the Guardian: “Anytime you have a filing that adds a minor in-state defendant, it’s a flag that they were joined to prevent removal to federal court. And as we know, Donald Trump has not been having been the best luck in federal court recently.”
Klepper pointed to a Maryland defamation statute that might provide a basis for Melania Trump’s suit. It reads: “A single or married woman whose character or reputation for chastity is defamed by any person may maintain an action against that person.”
I passed my manuscript over to the chief editor for acceptance, alteration, or destruction. He glanced at it and his face clouded. He ran his eye down the pages, and his countenance grew portentous. It was easy to see that something was wrong. Presently he sprang up and said:
“Thunder and lightning! Do you suppose I am going to speak of those cattle that way? Do you suppose my subscribers are going to stand such gruel as that? Give me the pen!”
I never saw a pen scrape and scratch its way so viciously, or plow through another man’s verbs and adjectives so relentlessly. While he was in the midst of his work, somebody shot at him through the open window, and marred the symmetry of my ear.
The crawling insect, Buckner, who edits the Hurrah, is braying about his business with his customary imbecility, and imagining that he is talking sense.
“Now that is the way to write–peppery and to the point. Mush-and-milk journalism gives me the fan-tods.”