Trumps tide has turned

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

Thanks. Standard T&C requires you to link your sources.

If Clinton's minority base does weaken she is done.

Maybe. Maybe not. It would have to weaken VERY drastically to hurt her chances. I mean Trump is currently below Romney's levels of minority support. So Hillary's minority support could weaken to the point that it raises Trumps minority support to Romney's levels and Clinton would probably still be sitting pretty nicely going forward.

Romney only won 6% of the African American vote in 2012.
ropercenter.cornell.edu...

If the LA times numbers are right (we'll see) Trump is pulling 14.1% of the black vote.
Trump numbers before the spike I showed from LA Times/USC was 4.8%, not far from Romneys eventual total in 2012.

a reply to: UKTruth

Well I explicitly said minorities, but fair enough you were originally just talking about the black vote.

I still don't think that Hillary slipping here too much will hurt her that badly. The slip would have to be drastic and I just don't see Trump making up that kind of ground between now and November.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

Well I explicitly said minorities, but fair enough you were originally just talking about the black vote.

I still don't think that Hillary slipping here too much will hurt her that badly. The slip would have to be drastic and I just don't see Trump making up that kind of ground between now and November.

I suspect that the potential change in the black vote will have not much to do with race. It is more to do with jobs and education. If the poorer people of America buy the promise of better education, more jobs and higher pay that Trump talked about in his speech then the shift will be way beyond the black vote. Clinton is leading because of her support from those with no job and those with low pay. Take that group out and she is losing. Her base of poor Americans is absolutely critical to her campaign. There may come a point where they say, 'let's risk it'. After all, Trump is not talking about taking away their current benefits.

a reply to: UKTruth

Clinton is DOMINATING in every category except white, male voters without a college degree, but she is even making inroads into that demographic. Like you say this, " Clinton is leading because of her support from those with no job and those with low pay," but that isn't true. Clinton is leading because Trump refuses to make inroads into demographics other than the one he already has support from.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

Clinton is DOMINATING in every category except white, male voters without a college degree, but she is even making inroads into that demographic. Like you say this, " Clinton is leading because of her support from those with no job and those with low pay," but that isn't true. Clinton is leading because Trump refuses to make inroads into demographics other than the one he already has support from.

It is true according to the data I gave you.



Take out those earning less than $35k and Hillary has zero chance of winning. If that group evens up, Hillary has lost.

Trump is destroying Clinton in the middle income bracket and they are close for those earning higher wages.

a reply to: UKTruth

That is breaking down the demographics differently than what I was implying. Plus your data has Hillary ahead in people earning about $75K, which means that no if things even up, Hillary would still be winning.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

That is breaking down the demographics differently than what I was implying.

Sure, but my point was that if you take out low earners and those with no job, Hillary would be toast.
I believe that any movement in the black vote will be because of jobs and education, not because of a racial demographic. If the education and jobs message really bites then Hillary's core voting base is under threat. To compound, I don't see how she can have any message at all for the middle class, where Trump dominates. This is why I think Trump should just keep talking about jobs and education non stop until November.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

That is breaking down the demographics differently than what I was implying.

incorrect - if those earning less than $35k (Hillary's only advantage right now) were to start leaning to Trump to the extent that group evened up then it's over. A big IF of course, but as I mentioned above, it must surely be the focus of Trumps messages from here on out and was the target group he aimed his speech at yesterday.

a reply to: UKTruth

How do you figure? You had three graphs there. The first one gave Hillary a HUGE edge in people earning less than $35K. The second one gave Trump a decent edge in people earning $35k - $75K. The final one gave Hillary a slight edge for people earning over $75K. So if the first two graphs became equal than the third one would still have Hillary with an edge. Granted the race would be MUCH closer, but that's the graph interpretation that -I- saw.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

How do you figure? You had three graphs there. The first one gave Hillary a HUGE edge in people earning less than $35K. The second one gave Trump a decent edge in people earning $35k - $75K. The final one gave Hillary a slight edge for people earning over $75K. So if the first two graphs became equal than the third one would still have Hillary with an edge. Granted the race would be MUCH closer, but that's the graph interpretation that -I- saw.

My scenario does not include group 2 evening out.
I am talking about the the really poor in America (by the countries standards) - those earning less than $35k. Can Trump win them and does the recent spike in the black voting intent point to potential success with the jobs and education message that will grow? Whilst this is obviously a scenario only, with only very slight evidence of it being a possibility, I believe this is where Trump's focus should be. Trump already has a lead with the $35k -$75k (a big lead).

a reply to: UKTruth

I think you may be getting your hopes up for a slight anomaly. I don't expect Trump's tactic of trying the same thing over and over again until it works to suddenly start working.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

I think you may be getting your hopes up for a slight anomaly. I don't expect Trump's tactic of trying the same thing over and over again until it works to suddenly start working.

Possibly. we'll see. I thought his speech was very focused on this group and really well put together.

a reply to: UKTruth

Trump has done this before. Every one gets all excited because Trump manages to stay on script for a whole speech, but then a week later we are getting a new Trumpism that distracts from his campaign some more.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

Trump has done this before. Every one gets all excited because Trump manages to stay on script for a whole speech, but then a week later we are getting a new Trumpism that distracts from his campaign some more.

A 'Trumpism' is in the eye of the beholder.
The distraction is not coming from him as much as it is from the media - they have made it their goal to distract. The big question is whether people focus on policy or focus on arranging words and sentences in ways to be upset.

a reply to: UKTruth

No, the media fact checks Trump. Trump supporters seem to think that is the media bullying him. No, it is making sure that the airwaves aren't dominated with unsourced bull#.

If Trump truly cared about the media not hounding him all the time, he would check the things he said and stop insulting them day in and day out.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

Trump has done this before. Every one gets all excited because Trump manages to stay on script for a whole speech, but then a week later we are getting a new Trumpism that distracts from his campaign some more.

And now the GOP also has to worry about the baggage past and present that Steve Bannon brings to the campaign.

Removed.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

No, the media fact checks Trump. Trump supporters seem to think that is the media bullying him. No, it is making sure that the airwaves aren't dominated with unsourced bull#.

If Trump truly cared about the media not hounding him all the time, he would check the things he said and stop insulting them day in and day out.

No, they really don't.
They fully deserve the insults. The vast majority of people do not trust the main stream media, for good reason. They skew, lie and alter to tell the sensational story they want to tell and thankfully people have recognised this.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

No, the media fact checks Trump. Trump supporters seem to think that is the media bullying him. No, it is making sure that the airwaves aren't dominated with unsourced bull#.

If Trump truly cared about the media not hounding him all the time, he would check the things he said and stop insulting them day in and day out.

No, they really don't.
They fully deserve the insults. The vast majority of people do not trust the main stream media, for good reason. They skew, lie and alter to tell the sensational story they want to tell and thankfully people have recognised this.

You got any sources for this bandwagon appeal?

originally posted by: Krazysh0t

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: UKTruth

No, the media fact checks Trump. Trump supporters seem to think that is the media bullying him. No, it is making sure that the airwaves aren't dominated with unsourced bull#.

If Trump truly cared about the media not hounding him all the time, he would check the things he said and stop insulting them day in and day out.

No, they really don't.
They fully deserve the insults. The vast majority of people do not trust the main stream media, for good reason. They skew, lie and alter to tell the sensational story they want to tell and thankfully people have recognised this.

You got any sources for this bandwagon appeal?

I've seen much lower numbers than those linked, but let's stick to Gallup.

www.gallup.com...