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originally posted by: TerryMcGuire
a reply to: BO XIAN
Predicting the near future, not by any special psychic revelations but rather by assembling bits and pieces of information to draw a reasonable course of action through the coming events. ? Like a think tank.
originally posted by: schuyler
I'm not sure a forum like ATS is up to it. "It" (ATS) as an entity is composed of many individuals who basically disagree about everything. There is no consensus on "End Times," for example. There is no consensus on what even constitutes a conspiracy. The site, as a whole, is too wide-ranging for that, and its members are not disciplined enough to serve as a base of operations for such an effort. We are not working together toward a common purpose. We can share some ideas and trade some thoughts, but the basic idea here is, "I'm right and you're an idiot." You can't trust half the "facts" that are presented here as anywhere near factually truthful. The Mandela Effect? Please! Chemtrails?????? That's how this place rolls. There is no evidence whatsoever that anyone here is especially well "plugged in" to secrets they can share under the table, Tom DeLonge notwithstanding. You can't even distinguish between educated guesses and pure fantasy presented as "evidence."
That's not to say something cannot be done, or that you cannot draw from this crowd of people who, whatever else they are, are willing to stretch the limits. There is such a thing as the Delphi Method, which, I think, attempts to do what you are suggesting. The basic idea as I understand it is to cast a net by asking experts to predict what is going to happen with "X" and compiling the results, then sending the results back out to the original experts and asking them if they want to revise their opinions in light of the opinions of others. The idea is to narrow down the results and gradually, through successive iterations of the same technique, arrive at a consensus that is then billed as the likely future.
I've been subjected to similar kinds of techniques in a business environment where a facilitator is attempting to narrow down concerns of the players (usually employees) to come to some sort of conclusion that can be distilled into a business plan for the organization. (Note: They use lots of Post-It notes on pieces of butcher paper for this exercise.) I once won a dollar for telling the facilitator to make a triangle on the board and label the three points Good, Fast, and Cheap, with the caption of, "Pick any two."
It may be that you could concoct a "Project Delphi" here by labeling each new thread as such in soliciting opinions, then summarize the results statistically. For example, you could create a thread whose title is: [Project Delphi] Subject: What do you think of the idea of an "End Times" as depicted by Christians? You tabulate the results, and report back: "X% of people think it is nonsense. X% take it seriously. X% have a different opinion." Next subject: [Project Delphi] Are UFOs the result of the ETH (Extraterrestrial) or the IDH (Interdimensional) or (Umm! Satan!)? Report back. 50% 40% 10% or whatever.
You could go through as many questions as you want and deal with the answers as you see fit. You'd get a feel for the consensus (or not) of ATS members, and, insofar as they are "correct," an idea of the future.
originally posted by: BO XIAN
It occurs to me that:
1. Some of the best minds; most informed researchers; most alert observers; most analytical and thoughtful minds . . . etc. etc.
are among us hereon.