Hillary Takes Huge Lead in new Poll

originally posted by: tadaman
a reply to: Willtell

first comment there asks if they are known pollers. Reply is they are new and no one knows much about them. They polled at the Missouri primary, thats about it.

Sorry, thats an old trick. Basically they were made this election to poll how ever their funding mandates.

LOL

Same tricks,

Looks that way, but to be balanced the LA Times poll is the same - only started a month ago and favours Trump. Probably both unreliable.

Clinton rally



Trump rally

a reply to: UKTruth

I wonder how badly Trump is underpolling due to his - I don't know - I'll call it the Silent Majority for lack of a better term.

originally posted by: bbarkow
a reply to: UKTruth

I wonder how badly Trump is underpolling due to his - I don't know - I'll call it the Silent Majority for lack of a better term.

As I said on another thread, Clinton is irrelevant in this election. It's all about Trump. America is voting on him - yes or no.
Most people saying they will vote for Clinton are only doing so because they are anti-Trump and don't want him to win. It will come down to the pro and anti Trump feeling in America in November and the media will play their part to drive up the anti-Trump side as far as they can

a reply to: Stormdancer777
That couldn't have been a Clinton rally! It must have been a visit to a pantsuit factory or something.

originally posted by: dragonridr
The democrats couldnt have run a worse candidate against him. So I'm having a really hard time trying to figure out how she got the backing in the first place to rig the election????

An initial audit of the Clinton Foundation says that there's 100 Billion Dollars missing that wasn't spent on 'charity', expenses or 'office supplies'... that'll buy you a lot of friends in high places like the FBI and the Attorney General's office.

Not to mention DNC delegates, local precincts, and professional hit men in case 'cooperation' wanes.

a reply to: UKTruth

It's all about Trump. America is voting on him - yes or no.

He's going about it the right way, IMO. He needs to stay in front of a camera at all times to give people a chance to get used to him. He has (never been there, so I'm assuming a lot) what seems to be the bearing and cadence of a typical born-and-raised New Yorker. Some of us out in flyover country may need some time to warm to him.

We already know Hillary, and most of us dislike her intensely. Even Democrats and women don't seem to be thrilled with her.

My wife's family has been Democrat forever, and if you ask her she'll say she's a Democrat too. A JFK Democrat. She cannot stomach Hillary.

originally posted by: bbarkow
a reply to: UKTruth

It's all about Trump. America is voting on him - yes or no.

He's going about it the right way, IMO. He needs to stay in front of a camera at all times to give people a chance to get used to him. He has (never been there, so I'm assuming a lot) what seems to be the bearing and cadence of a typical born-and-raised New Yorker. Some of us out in flyover country may need some time to warm to him.

We already know Hillary, and most of us dislike her intensely. Even Democrats and women don't seem to be thrilled with her.

My wife's family has been Democrat forever, and if you ask her she'll say she's a Democrat too. A JFK Democrat. She cannot stomach Hillary.

I think he is making several mistakes. He has already locked in about 35-40% of voters. In my opinion he needs to stay on his policy platform and talk about nothing else. Controlled borders, Trade deals , jobs, infrastructure, law and order, defeating ISIS. Every other issue he should deflect and he should no longer respond to the increasing personal attacks from the left.

That Toledo rally was impressive. I thought it was a roller-skate rink or something, maybe holding 5,000 people.

Then at 0:55 it panned right. Wow.

a reply to: UKTruth

In my opinion he needs to stay on his policy platform and talk about nothing else. Controlled borders, Trade deals , jobs, infrastructure, law and order, defeating ISIS.

Agreed. Absolutely.

I still believe:

He needs to stay in front of a camera at all times to give people a chance to get used to him.

a reply to: Stormdancer777 this is very telling, was it same day ,at same time ?

originally posted by: bbarkow
a reply to: UKTruth

In my opinion he needs to stay on his policy platform and talk about nothing else. Controlled borders, Trade deals , jobs, infrastructure, law and order, defeating ISIS.

Agreed. Absolutely.

I still believe:

He needs to stay in front of a camera at all times to give people a chance to get used to him.

Yep - lots of air time but hammering home those points.

originally posted by: Teikiatsu
That Toledo rally was impressive. I thought it was a roller-skate rink or something, maybe holding 5,000 people.

Then at 0:55 it panned right. Wow.

Holy crap, yeah - just watched it.
Blimey.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: AutOmatIc

They'd better start making sound bites saying how trump is being crushed so they can account for the record breaking landslide in favor of Clinton come November. You know get their money out of those rigged diebolds. How many people would have to be on the payroll then?
This is bound to get expensive.


That people think rigging machines is a possibility is incredulous to me.
How is that even possible folks? How? On a large scale no less.

You are serious ?

How is it NOT possible should be the most likely question, HOW could rigging actually be STOPPED.

What the heck does scale have to do with anything ?

This is only a foolish layman's analysis (such as it is,) but I feel - at the moment at least - there are four ways this election can go in November.

The following is based on how states voted in the last three elections, their current congressional districts (how many are Republican vs Democrat,) their current governors, the POPULARITY of their current governors (how much they won by, their current approval ratings, etc.) and last but not least, how each candidate did in the primaries for both parties (e.g. which states heavily favored Sanders vs Clinton, which states voted for candidates other than Trump, etc.) with the latter being sourced from here: www.nytimes.com...

1) The party line vote, supported by past and recent history, coupled with current events and trends. Based on congressional districts, current governors, the popularity of said governors, and how states voted in the last three prior elections, if voters vote along party lines for the most part, there will be only three true toss up or too close to call states: Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. In this scenario, Clinton only needs to win one of them to become president, whereas Trump needs to win all three.



2) The Sanders disruption. If the above holds true, but states where Sanders did extremely well and have ambivalence toward Clinton or strong Republican electorates stay home or vote against Clinton in sufficient numbers, then states which might otherwise go to Clinton might instead go to Trump, and states that were not as contested might become too close to call. Here again only three states become toss ups, but which states they are changes to: Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. In this scenario, Trump only needs Florida to win, or only both Ohio and Illinois. Whereas Clinton needs all three. In this case, the race could favor Trump over Clinton.



3) The Clinton landslide. If she maintains this sort of lead in polled likely voters, we could actually see traditionally Republican strongholds, which in some cases have recently begun to become only Republican leaning rather than stalwartly Republican, become toss ups, and possibly even switch by narrow margins to Clinton. If this happens, needless to say, she wins. This would be almost a reversal of what happened in 2000 with GWB, where he won with many states that had ordinarily been thought to be Democratic strongholds. The grey states showing toss ups below in this case would flip to Clinton potentially. If even one or two of them did in addition to the already existing toss ups above, she wins.



4) The Trump victory by larger margin. If more scandals - to say nothing of charges or perjury investigations (albeit unlikely in my opinion) - rock Clinton's campaign, and if Trump stays on message (rather than responding to every word someone says in criticism of him and staying in the news for that rather than his platform and positions,) Clinton's lead could vanish and Trump could flip states that currently only give Clinton a surmountable edge over him. Other states currently likely to go to her could also become tossups, especially states where Sanders did very well. In this case, Trump could win in a slight reversal of #3.



Right now, I feel the race heavily favors Clinton both in the polls, and more importantly for the final outcome, in electoral votes. In particular, Trump needs to campaign heavily in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and the great lakes as a whole, to have a better chance of victory. He may also need to shore up states like Texas, surprisingly, to prevent a protest vote or flip to Clinton.

I'm not voting for either of them, for the record. This is just my best guess and layperson's analysis for the hell of it.

Peace.

a reply to: AceWombat04

Excellent post.

I think your scenario 1 is the most basic and also most probable.
The 3 states FL,OH and VA will decide it - Trump needs to win them all.
The only caveat to that is he MIGHT win Pennsylvania...

a reply to: UKTruth

I think there is a very good chance that Trump will win PA

a reply to: Gryphon66

I love when people talk of those sites you mentioned...you say they arent credible at all.

So tell me...what source do you get YOUR propaganda from?

I'm not saying they dont have lies with them...I'm saying that people attack them at will and they somehow get all their news from...God? Enlighten me.

originally posted by: DavidWright
a reply to: Gryphon66

I love when people talk of those sites you mentioned...you say they arent credible at all.

So tell me...what source do you get YOUR propaganda from?

I'm not saying they dont have lies with them...I'm saying that people attack them at will and they somehow get all their news from...God? Enlighten me.

Only left wing controlled media is credible - you should know that by now

originally posted by: BlueAjah
a reply to: UKTruth

I think there is a very good chance that Trump will win PA

I take it you are in PA?!