a reply to: tsurfer2000h
This is a complicated question to answer. One could also ask why America would shelter an opposition leader in exile (Fethulla Gulen) from a NATO
Turkey is involved in two big political processes. The first is their long standing effort to be admitted to the EU. The second is the American/NATO
effort to (a) secure oil resources from North Africa to the Caspian Sea and (b) reduce the power of or "balkanize" every resource rich state in the
As an aside, against this background, Russia is attempting to solidify areas within what it sees as its proper area of interest, the Ukraine, its
Muslim zones within the Russian Federation and Syria.
When looking at the situation one needs to be mindful of two groups that might be considered "cat's paws", or tools being used to influence political
movement. One is the collection of jihadists that exist in various formations, who were armed and trained by the US or allies and smuggled into Syria
to turn an "opposition protest movement" into a full fledged civil war.
The use of the jihadi groups has had unexpected consequences that have culminated in the situation in Syria, eastern Turkey and Iraq that we have
today, with the jihadis attempting to set up their own state (ISIL) and the indigenous Kurds of the region attempting to do the same.
When these groups started to set up their own state, Erdogan started to increase support for the jihadis because they were pushing Turkish Kurds, a
disaffected and rebellious Turkish minority, out of their traditional Turkish territory toward Iraq. This had the effect of giving the jihadis too
much support. Erdogan had started to step out of line as a NATO member to use the jihadis for particularly Turkish reasons, and this started to
interfere with the main NATO game plan.
But even that plan was going haywire because the Assad regime in Syria was actually not as unpopular or shaky as the Americans/NATO had originally
believed. An attempt by the US/NATO to recover the initiative in Syria and rescue the jihadis from the Syrian Army by creating another Libyan style
phony "no fly" zone, was blocked by Russia in 2013.
NATO's ally Turkey had stepped out of line in the handling of the jihadi proxy armies in Syria, but they also started to get "wise" in the way they
created a "cat's paw" of their own to use against the EU.
The second "cat's paw" was the refugees created by the use of the first "cat's paw".
Turkey started to facilitate the movement of those refugees into Europe. This has created huge problems for Erdogan's prospective stable mates in the
This is a case, I believe, where "poetic justice" made one of its infelicitous appearances in the world of realpolitik
. Without going into a
lot of detail, I believe the "poet" in Erdogan said,
"OK my EU friends, you are delaying our admittance to the EU because you are afraid of Muslims, while your aggression in our region has put large
numbers of refugees into my lap. I'll fix you. I'll just pass the problem back up the line to Europe. Your own meddling will get you more Muslims than
you can handle, even if Turkey is not admitted into the EU. Muslims are a fact of life. Deal with it!"
I think NATO just decided that Erdogan was becoming too much of an unpredictable factor in a complex situation and could be replaced relatively
easily. It looks as if they did not take sufficient notice of Russian interest in these matters to prevent its influence being felt counter to NATO's
This a complicated situation where mutual interests have diverged significantly. We don't know if Turkey will turn away from NATO and the EU and
toward Russia. It will take a while for the new shape of things to become clear. I would imagine that the United States, and Russia too, are walking
on eggs for the moment.
edit on 26-7-2016 by ipsedixit because: (no reason given)