2016 is (predictably) set to be the hottest year on record

Well, it looks like we're gonna break the temperature for the hottest year on record.......AGAIN! Wow, ATS. This is starting to become a broken record; a worrisome broken record. According to the article, we've broken the heat record every year since 2014, however, the hottest years on record have all happened since 1998:

www.ncdc.noaa.gov...

Share on Facebook (732) Tweet Share (1) Pin (2) If temperature trends continue, 2016 is on track to be the planet’s hottest year on record, according to NASA. The first half of the year has already seen some heat extremes: it was the warmest half-year ever recorded for the planet and each month from January to June was the warmest month ever in the modern temperature record. And that record spans back all the way to 1880. THE SUPREME HEAT SEEMS TO BE STICKING AROUND DESPITE THE LESSENING EFFECTS OF EL NIÑO NASA made these high temperature measurements thanks to satellite data and ground-based observation. And the space agency notes that the supreme heat seems to be sticking around despite the lessening effects of El Niño — a period of abnormally high temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that influences weather. "While the El Niño event in the tropical Pacific this winter gave a boost to global temperatures from October onwards, it is the underlying trend which is producing these record numbers," said Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. This indicates the extreme temperatures are the result of an overall warming that has taken place over the last couple of decades, thanks to the abundance of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, NASA argued.

The high temperatures in the first half of 2016 have also correlated with low sea ice coverage in the Arctic. Five out of the first six months of the year set records for having the smallest monthly coverage of Arctic sea ice since satellite observations of the region began in 1979. Now, during the peak summer melt season — when the Arctic ice is melted away by the Sun — the ice coverage is about 40 percent less than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, according to NASA. If 2016 does become the hottest year on record, that marks three years in a row that the world’s global temperatures have set records. Previously, 2014 was considered the warmest year in recorded history, but it was eventually beat out by 2015.

I think it's safe to say that we are officially screwed.....! What says ATS?

www.theverge.com...

I would say that I expected warmer weather to arrive months before it did ... and temperatures haven't really been all that warm so far.

But that's just me. It's a big world out there. Let's see how many people will come along and directly contradict me.

originally posted by: Snarl
I would say that I expected warmer weather to arrive months before it did ... and temperatures haven't really been all that warm so far.

But that's just me. It's a big world out there. Let's see how many people will come along and directly contradict me.

I'm not experiencing extreme warming yet but that doesn't mean it's not happening. The warming trend(s) are viewed on a worldwide scale; Global temps.

a reply to: lostbook

I think it's safe to say that we are officially screwed.

We are definitely screwed, but not because of the weather.

Been pretty damn hot down here in central Fl. Just sayin.....

Actually around 1936 it was warmer certainly in the USA with Omaha reaching 110 degrees f and South Dakota an unbelievable 120

Here are highlights from just the first 10 minutes of the video:

“Eighty years ago this week, the US was experiencing the worst heat wave in the history of the United States, says Heller. All of the Midwest, all of the east coast except up into northern New England, was over 100 degrees.

Same in South Dakota, where temperatures reached an almost unbelievable 120 degrees.
iceagenow.info...
Remember that hullabaloo a few weeks back about how hot it was going to climb in Phoenix? That South Dakota temperature from 1936 was even hotter.

Or look at Omaha. Omaha used to have 110-degree days, Heller points out.

No more. There have been no 110-degree days in Omaha since 1954.

a reply to: Metallicus

You speak the true on that. While the temps have gone up and records have happened that does not mean 100% doom. Forecasting in a general terms is only been done since 1840 or 50's. The earth it's self is billions of years old, before the last ice age the temps could have been 150 f in the shade.

Central California Coast. Sunny skies and warm, balmy weather 300 days of the year.

I remember back in the 60s, it was much hotter here in Cali. I remember many days of 115 degrees and one day it was 117 degrees. I think it was 98 today

originally posted by: 727Sky
Actually around 1936 it was warmer certainly in the USA with Omaha reaching 110 degrees f and South Dakota an unbelievable 120

Here are highlights from just the first 10 minutes of the video:

“Eighty years ago this week, the US was experiencing the worst heat wave in the history of the United States, says Heller. All of the Midwest, all of the east coast except up into northern New England, was over 100 degrees.

Same in South Dakota, where temperatures reached an almost unbelievable 120 degrees.
iceagenow.info...
Remember that hullabaloo a few weeks back about how hot it was going to climb in Phoenix? That South Dakota temperature from 1936 was even hotter.

Or look at Omaha. Omaha used to have 110-degree days, Heller points out.

No more. There have been no 110-degree days in Omaha since 1954.

That is a fascinating historical event. However, in the interest of promoting good science, let's stick to apples to apples comparisons please. That was one heat wave in one region. This thread is about the temperature of the whole planet for an entire year. If we look long and hard enough, we can find thousands of other temperature records that didn't get broken in 2016, but that's as nonsensical as celebrating unbirthdays.

Please let's discuss the global temperature of earth in 2016, not the temperature of Saskatchewan on leap day. They are completely different things.

Also, happy unbirthday (almost) everyone.

a reply to: anotheramethyst
Indeed. A rising average is more indicative of a trend than the local peaks and valleys which happen along the way.

It is interesting however that in the US, in the past 365 days, there have been 42 all time high records (not highest for the month, not highest for the day, but the highest ever recorded at the site) set as compared to 4 all time lows. Ten to one.

Globally we see 138 all time highs as compared to 19 all time lows.

Those all time lows are getting more and more scarce. It's hard to understand how anyone can insist that the world is not getting warmer, leaving the cause out of it entirely. Skepticism is one thing, denial something else.


www.ncdc.noaa.gov...

a reply to: anotheramethyst

You want earth temps here they are: www.ncdc.noaa.gov...

Assuming there is a brief cool down around 2020, the next “warm and dry” climatic phase is scheduled to arrive in the early 2030s, probably peaking around 2038. It is expected to produce even hotter and drier weather patterns than we saw during the late 1990s and early 2000s.


But, we should remember, that the Earth’s coldest periods have usually followed excessive warmth. Such was the case when our planet moved from the Medieval Warm Period between 900 and 1300 A.D. to the sudden “Little Ice Age,” which peaked in the 17th Century. Since 2,500 B.C., there have been at least 78 major climate changes worldwide, including two major changes in just the past 40 years.

By the end of this 21st Century, a cool down may occur that could ultimately lead to expanding glaciers worldwide, even in the mid-latitudes. Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years. The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago, so we may be due again sometime soon. But, only time will tell.

youtu.be...

a reply to: 727Sky

You want earth temps here they are: www.ncdc.noaa.gov...

Indeed. I just posted that link, above.

Assuming there is a brief cool down around 2020,

For what reason is that assumed?

Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years.

False, and someone does not seem to know the difference between an ice age and a glacial period. But, in any case, in the past no one was pumping prodigious amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net...
d32ogoqmya1dw8.cloudfront.net...

a reply to: Phage

I assume without putting words in their article for them it has to do with the cyclic nature of warming an cooling the earth goes through. youtu.be...
This lady points out why so many people close their ears when the subject is brought up. Trust for many right or wrong has been lost.

Also Phage and anyone else who thinks otherwise I am on the side of climate change because that is what climate does. The only possible disparity I have are some of the fixes put forth by our esteemed scientist and governmental bodies which all seem to involve separating all us peons from our last horde of coins. ...

a reply to: Phage

Gold coast Australia hottest ever July day today my city Brisbane will break the record tomorrow 29-30 degrees(84-86F) Celsius in the middle of winter normal for this time of year is 20-22 Celsius.

a reply to: Phage

The pumping of CO2 into the atmosphere may be only 1 component of the warming trend . What about the reversal of the sun's magnetic field and it's affect on the earth's magnetic field? There is evidence that the earth's magnetic field may play a much more important role in global climate than previously believed.

a reply to: Snarl

they keep telling me about these record breaking temps...but I just dont see it my own end. So far it has been a very mild summer...I seem to remember days when I was a kid of temps as high as 38-40 C...they havent reached 35 C yet this year (the highest recorded this year is 34 C), and every few days we have cooling periods with rain and clouds that lower it below 30 C.

Maybe these records are being broken elsewhere...southern Europe appears rather mild and "normal".

a reply to: 727Sky

I assume without putting words in their article for them it has to do with the cyclic nature of warming an cooling the earth goes through.

You assume that natural cycles are the only influence on climate.

This lady points out why so many people close their ears when the subject is brought up.

Judith Curry does not deny that warming is occurring but she does think that the effects of CO2 are overstated. Scientists don't "close their ears", they look at the physics and the data.

Trust for many right or wrong has been lost.

Yes. Because very large amounts of money are being spent in efforts to maintain the status quo in energy production.

a reply to: Arizonaguy

What about the reversal of the sun's magnetic field and it's affect on the earth's magnetic field?

The Sun's magnetic field (the Sun actually has a conglomeration of magnetic fields, not really a single field like Earth) "reverses" every 11 years and it has no effect on Earth's magnetic field.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Arizonaguy

What about the reversal of the sun's magnetic field and it's affect on the earth's magnetic field?

The Sun's magnetic field (the Sun actually has a conglomeration of magnetic fields, not really a single field like Earth) "reverses" every 11 years and it has no effect on Earth's magnetic field.

Plasma releases and solar wind do affect it though. The shape and strength of the magnetosphere do have an influence on climate. CERN was supposed to run experiments on this not too long ago, but I never saw the results.