Puzzling game of stats

Forgive me for not being concrete with numbers. I'm in no mood to dig through US political threads for this. But I would like to add my observations.

Please do point to mistakes in my assumptions. This is gonna be short.

Following US political threads...I can conclude...that out of all people participating in political threads...somewhere around 5-10 % of active members that participate...are in favor of Clinton. Open any thread about Trump or Clinton...and count the number of stars members who support Clinton get. Very few if any. I can conclude that there are very few Clinton supporters on ATS...and those few...receive very few stars...showing that the support for the Clinton narrative is very scarce. I have seen more support for Gary Johnson on ATS then for Clinton.

Overwhelming majority of ATS-ers are divided between Trump, Bernie, and third party...

So I got 2 questions:

1. Is ATS a valid sample to overlay across the entire US population ?

if 1 is true...

2. How come all the pols shown and the official narrative states that Clinton is a sure winner ? And how come if the majority wants Clinton...we dont see them here on ATS ?

If 1 is false...

Is ATS simply a place where crazy, unfit, delusional people spend their time ?


Looking forward to your thoughts...

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

I think its because the majority of people who come to this site are more likely to question what they see and be skeptical, its why they are here after all. Therefore, they are better educated and understand the corruption and flaws, thus understand Clinton is not a good choice.

That would be a small amount of people.

Then there is the mass majority that watch mainstream TV and tend to believe the narratives told. They would be in favor of Clinton because the media is portraying that side. They wouldn't bother with time on these kinds of forums..

originally posted by: MarioOnTheFly
Is ATS a valid sample to overlay across the entire US population ?


Is ATS simply a place where crazy, unfit, delusional people spend their time ?

funny its only one or the other to you, that may be a sign that you are one of those unfit people.... a polarized mindset like that certainly isnt healthy, the world is shades of grey dont you know.
if there are far less clinton supporters on this site versus others rather then indicating "delusion" it may instead indicate the other sites contain more delusion, why didnt your mind realize that other angle though? weird eh?

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly
Simple.
1) ATS is not indicative of the views held by the majority of Americans.

Number of ATS members who have posted:
169,023
Number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election :
126,144,000

Someone wiser than I once said: One does not scoop a cup of the ocean and conclude, based on the sample, that there are no whales to be found.

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

I don't know how much it's relevant, considering we don't know how many members are from the US.

I, for one, am not from the US, but I somewhat actively participate in the US political madness threads, because I am mainly a sucker for politics. Maybe, there are a few others like me. Or maybe there's none.

I think the solution would be for the site owners to create a poll, where only those members from the US would have the right to cast their vote.

1- ATS is not a indicative of a typical US sample. Most who post on ATS have some sort of knowledge about ongoing politics. Most people in the US have no idea about politics and vote for who is: black, a women, or who is better looking and popular.

2- the polls are jacked up because they are only asking at best 1000 "random" people. And going back to #1 people have no clue.

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

1. Is ATS a valid sample to overlay across the entire US population ?

Absolutely not. ATS attracts people who are looking for alternatives to the narratives presented in the mass media.

2. How come all the pols shown and the official narrative states that Clinton is a sure winner ? And how come if the majority wants Clinton...we dont see them here on ATS ?

Although Clinton does have a base that has been supporting her since she ran against Obama, most of her support comes from people who fear what will happen if Donald Trump is elected. They are not interested in defending her questionable traits and actions; rather, they are looking realistically at the alternatives. Unfortunately, our winner take all system is giving us a choice between Richard Nixon and Adolf Hitler... you don't have to like Nixon to vote against Hitler.

Is ATS simply a place where crazy, unfit, delusional people spend their time ?

No, there are a lot of thoughtful critical thinkers here. On the other hand, there are some who are uncritical believers in any paranoid conspiracy theory they come across. Donald Trump is actively courting these conspiracy theorists. He claimed that he was going to investigate Obama's birth certificate, for example. Needless to say, nothing ever came of it. He calls the media "liars" when they quote him accurately, appealing to those who reject "the Official Story." He claims to be against the "Elite," which is a strange thing for a member of the 1% to be. He joins with wannabe revolutionaries by claiming the system is "rigged," at least when it doesn't favor him. He makes blatantly xenophobic remarks and re-tweets Anti-Semitic propaganda from Neo-Nazis. He wants the crazy, unfit, and delusional who do hang out here to think he is one of them.

a reply to: NobodiesNormal

the world is shades of grey dont you know.

Well you know...as far as the US election goes...there is no gray. It's one or the other. white or black...or black or black.

if there are far less clinton supporters on this site versus others rather then indicating "delusion" it may instead indicate the other sites contain more delusion, why didnt your mind realize that other angle though? weird eh?

we might think that out of personal bias. This is a conspiracy forum primarily. Many people that come here...believe in conspiracy theories...myself included. Lat time I checked mainstream....conspiracy theory believers are not thought to be the brightest bulbs out there. Derided, ridiculed, ignored...but come election times...they are far less deluded then the average American...is what you're saying ?

a reply to: ADAMandEVIL

1) ATS is not indicative of the views held by the majority of Americans.

obviously

One does not scoop a cup of the ocean and conclude, based on the sample, that there are no whales to be found.

It's exactly what statistics is...you just have make sure that you take the cup from the right part of Ocean. All statistics works with small sample groups...

I guess this is just not the right part of ocean

a reply to: Nikola014

I don't know how much it's relevant, considering we don't know how many members are from the US.

indeed...Many are outside the US. Even those outside are vehemently against Clinton...even more so then the US residents.

I think the solution would be for the site owners to create a poll, where only those members from the US would have the right to cast their vote.

Would be interesting to see...but then...my original point remains...is it representative...somehow ? As Adam stated...169,023 of members posting...that's a pretty good sample if everybody was polled. How much support would Clinton get if these 100 000 something members expressed their views. Judging by what i've seen...very little.

There is a guy...or two claiming here that Hillary is clean and everything is hunky dorey...if Clinton wins...then it appears that the overwhelming majority of people, democrats...agree with these two guys on ATS...and the rest of us are nuts.

Obama claims there is nothing to hang her for...Comey pretty much also gave her a free pass...

a reply to: avgguy

1- ATS is not a indicative of a typical US sample. Most who post on ATS have some sort of knowledge about ongoing politics. Most people in the US have no idea about politics and vote for who is: black, a women, or who is better looking and popular.

So the average American that does not frequent conspiracy sites is grossly uninformed...?

2- the polls are jacked up because they are only asking at best 1000 "random" people.

but if she wins...doesnt that in the end prove that they were right in the end ? that's obviously more then just 1000 people ?

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

I've seen far more people who can look at the legal criteria for the crime they all figured she'd hang on check off all the criteria in Comey's speech and then wonder what on earth he was doing when he created some category for "intent" which does not exist in the same law. And this goes for people on both sides of the aisle who are legal experts.

I mean what actually happened doesn't matter. Most of us figured that she'd skate, but I never figured they'd be so blatant about it that they more or less read a crystal clear case for indictment and then say, "but ... nope."

And I wasn't going to vote for her anyhow. The last 8 years have been terrifying in this household. I'd like to see if someone, anyone can get the economy actually moving again, not just shambling along in zombie status so they can proclaim its alive every month.

a reply to: DJW001

you don't have to like Nixon to vote against Hitler.

You know I never got that sentiment. If both are psychopaths...how can anyone normal vote for the lesser of two evils...? (in their own mind).

Wouldnt it be better to simply abstain from voting en masse...and force the establishment to come up with better people ? All I keep hearing from many members is that you have to vote...no matter the choices. Just pick one so you can sleep proud thinking how you did your civic duty...by voting in, what seems for a lesser hHitler rather then the bigger one.

Here are some actual numbers from polls held by SkepticOverlord here on ATS:

Results of the 2015 ATS Presidential Straw Poll

He also did a poll over at Disinfo.com this year:



Link

And here is a poll he did back in 2014 asking ATS members about their political ideology:

ATS Poll Results: Some surprising insights in the political ideology visitor poll.

ATS has a very large amount of international members, so any poll held about US politics is going to be skewed since the polls allow for any member to participate.

In other words: It's based on ATS membership....not US citizens.

a reply to: eriktheawful

Yeah I remember those polls.

They show something similar I claimed in my opening post. Small minority supports Clinton.

ATS has a very large amount of international members, so any poll held about US politics is going to be skewed since the polls allow for any member to participate.

skewed how ? why would it be skewed...? Are you saying the percentage for Hillary would be higher if only US members took part in the poll ? why would international members be overwhelmingly against Hillary and pro Trump or Sanders ?

a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

skewed how ? why would it be skewed...? Are you saying the percentage for Hillary would be higher if only US members took part in the poll ? why would international members be overwhelmingly against Hillary and pro Trump or Sanders ?

Ever notice that some members use images of Che Guevara and other totalitarian figures as their avatars? Puzzle it out.

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

skewed how ? why would it be skewed...? Are you saying the percentage for Hillary would be higher if only US members took part in the poll ? why would international members be overwhelmingly against Hillary and pro Trump or Sanders ?

Ever notice that some members use images of Che Guevara and other totalitarian figures as their avatars? Puzzle it out.

How does that tie into pro Trump or pro Bernie ? please do explain.

originally posted by: MarioOnTheFly

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

skewed how ? why would it be skewed...? Are you saying the percentage for Hillary would be higher if only US members took part in the poll ? why would international members be overwhelmingly against Hillary and pro Trump or Sanders ?

Ever notice that some members use images of Che Guevara and other totalitarian figures as their avatars? Puzzle it out.

How does that tie into pro Trump or pro Bernie ? please do explain.

Gee... why would a Communist support a "democratic socialist" like Sanders? Why would a Neo-Nazi support a man who would build a wall to keep out Mexicans, not let Muslims into the country, and who uses coded fascist language?

a reply to: DJW001

why would a Communist support a "democratic socialist" like Sanders? Why would a Neo-Nazi support a man who would build a wall to keep out Mexicans, not let Muslims into the country, and who uses coded fascist language?

Without going into these ridiculous labels...your contention is that true Americans then would go for Hillary ?

Because Trump supporters 34,91 % are nazi supporters.

Bernie supporters are commies...at 42,77 %...when you count in Cruz and Paul...not much room for true Americans left.

I guess this is then...not an American majority board.

originally posted by: DJW001

originally posted by: MarioOnTheFly

originally posted by: DJW001
a reply to: MarioOnTheFly

skewed how ? why would it be skewed...? Are you saying the percentage for Hillary would be higher if only US members took part in the poll ? why would international members be overwhelmingly against Hillary and pro Trump or Sanders ?

Ever notice that some members use images of Che Guevara and other totalitarian figures as their avatars? Puzzle it out.

How does that tie into pro Trump or pro Bernie ? please do explain.

Gee... why would a Communist support a "democratic socialist" like Sanders? Why would a Neo-Nazi support a man who would build a wall to keep out Mexicans, not let Muslims into the country, and who uses coded fascist language?

So, you're accusing someone of being a Communist or Neo-Nazi just from an image? Can you guess my political leanings just from my avatar?