It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

C.I.A. Prediction: EU and NATO to Dissolve In 2020.

page: 2
0
<< 1    3  4 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 08:57 PM
link   

Really? Funny that, seeing as our Chancellor anounced in his pre-budget report that Growth in the Uk was 3.5% and growing.


I don't know if you took a look at the rest of Europe, but its not in the same boat.


We have the lowest unemployment figures ever recorded in the UK. End of.
We have a nice, healthy growing economy....so, no of course we can compete.

Besides, each of the EU's members main trading partners are each other.


Once again, have you looked outside of the UK? Germany and France have crumbling economies. Their social programs have surpassed the amount they take in with taxes.

I don't know...Did the world learn anything from the Soviet Union? That's what the EU seems like. Another attempt at a socialist utopia. It won't work.


We do? Check again...... UK: Lowest Unemployment for donkeys, High growth (3.5% and climbing


I actually thought you were from Germany the way you were talking before.


We shall wait and see shall we.......


I've given the facts. We can already see.

The two most powerful economies in the EU are France and Germany, and they are both slipping big time. I only know of two economies really doing well in the EU, Ireland (slowing growth at the time) and the UK.




posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 09:19 PM
link   

The raw numbers are meaningless since the U.S.'s economy is so much bigger than these other nations. As Disturbed Deliverer said, you have to compare as a percentage of GDP not raw debt totals.


Yes, but the point of my post is that the world is beginning to see that the US is operating an international ponzi scheme on the poorest nations of the world. Again, as John Perkins says:

"my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay."


The US is banking on the rest of the world supporting them in this. Do you think the masses of the world will allow us to look down upon them while we rape them for the next 20 years?

This situation is akin to the Rent-A-Center scams run on poor people in US cities who think by renting furniture and appliances, they will improve their lives. Addicting the ignorant to debt is the American way, but how long will they remain ignorant?

The formation of the Euro is the single largest currency unification in the civilized's world's history. Why do you think this happened if not to remove the US dollar as the world's oil/energy trading medium?

A better question would be, when will we see the Euro used as currency inside the US. I'd be curious to hear opinions on this.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 09:32 PM
link   


I don't know if you took a look at the rest of Europe, but its not in the same boat.


Hmmm, they aren't as healthy, but are not quite crumbling either. Besides, with the new intake of members, that should give a nice little boost to the central econmoies with the relaxing of trade barriers.



Once again, have you looked outside of the UK? Germany and France have crumbling economies. Their social programs have surpassed the amount they take in with taxes.

I don't know...Did the world learn anything from the Soviet Union? That's what the EU seems like. Another attempt at a socialist utopia. It won't work.


I wouldn't describe them as "crumbling":

German economy rebounds in 2004

EU summit seeks economic revival

They are doing something about it, and I admit the French econmoy is not too good, but then it never has been amazing. They are lazy buggers those French!



I actually thought you were from Germany the way you were talking before.


Nope, lived there, but I am a pure bred Englishman.



I've given the facts. We can already see.


Hmm......

Bush warns of US pension crisis

And you say our welfare system is failing?

It has to be said that in the short term, the US will benefit from a weak dollar whilst the rest of the world (EU, China) will suffer.

However, in the long term, and especially if the Chinese unpeg and OPEC goes Euro, the dollar could slide a bit too far and that would spell a nasty end to the US dominance.

Like I said, we shall wait and see.................



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 09:47 PM
link   

The US is banking on the rest of the world supporting them in this. Do you think the masses of the world will allow us to look down upon them while we rape them for the next 20 years?

This situation is akin to the Rent-A-Center scams run on poor people in US cities who think by renting furniture and appliances, they will improve their lives. Addicting the ignorant to debt is the American way, but how long will they remain ignorant?


Honestly, does it matter how long they stay ignorant? The third world countries don't have much choice.


The formation of the Euro is the single largest currency unification in the civilized's world's history. Why do you think this happened if not to remove the US dollar as the world's oil/energy trading medium?


I know why the EU, and the Euro exist. It doesn't mean they'll succeed.

I don't feel any threat from Europe as an America. I agree completely with the CIA on the EU. The real threats to American power will come from further East, such as China.

Stumason

Hmmm, they aren't as healthy, but are not quite crumbling either. Besides, with the new intake of members, that should give a nice little boost to the central econmoies with the relaxing of trade barriers.


Why would anyone buy a product made in Europe when its way more expensive then something in China?


They are doing something about it, and I admit the French econmoy is not too good, but then it never has been amazing. They are lazy buggers those French!


I think the fact that the figures seen in 2004 were considered a revival only show how weak the economies are.

Though, they have seen many poor signs. The last German jobs report showed an increase in unemployment. The last quarter saw the German economy shrink for the second time in the past year.


And you say our welfare system is failing?


The problem is that in Europe nations seem unwilling to reform the social programs (certainly not get rid of them), they just keep boosting. The governments tax people more, and they have less money to invest in the economy. The businesses will keep firing people. The people will have less money to give to the government but still get the same benefits. They end up having to increase taxes more...

It's a horrible cycle for an economy.

Plus, the social security problems won't really hit for 40 years. There has been talk about reforms for over a decade now. It WILL happen soon. With the EU, its doubtful all the nations will agree on the reform. In a nation like France, the social programs are valued too much. This could bring about a split in the EU.


It has to be said that in the short term, the US will benefit from a weak dollar whilst the rest of the world (EU, China) will suffer.

However, in the long term, and especially if the Chinese unpeg and OPEC goes Euro, the dollar could slide a bit too far and that would spell a nasty end to the US dominance.


There are many ways around this.

OPEC will NEVER screw America over because they know what will happen if they do. It's that simple.

China, being a developing country, isn't going to be able to grow and compete like they do. America wants the Chinese to lose their low currency.

None of this takes into account things that could happen in the world. Who could say something like Peak Oil couldn't be factoring into America's schemes? Certainly America's military plans could indicate that. I don't think many Peak Oilists look at how America's FCS program will give the ability to deploy mass numbers of troops anywhere in the world in hours, and doing it with armored vechiles designed for fuel efficiency.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:01 PM
link   

OPEC will NEVER screw America over because they know what will happen if they do. It's that simple.


Isn't this the lynchpin of the whole US policy toward OPEC? That if they switch to the Euro, we'll kill them all?



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:08 PM
link   


Why would anyone buy a product made in Europe when its way more expensive then something in China?


Plenty of things come from Europe. Cars, electronics, ships, coal, oil, luxury goods such as wine, computer software (games alone in the uk are worth £2billion/annum)

Can't think the last time I bought an American product..... oooh, no wait, i bought an AMD chip last year, are they American?



The problem is that in Europe nations seem unwilling to reform the social programs (certainly not get rid of them), they just keep boosting. The governments tax people more, and they have less money to invest in the economy. The businesses will keep firing people. The people will have less money to give to the government but still get the same benefits. They end up having to increase taxes more...



Plus, the social security problems won't really hit for 40 years. There has been talk about reforms for over a decade now. It WILL happen soon. With the EU, its doubtful all the nations will agree on the reform. In a nation like France, the social programs are valued too much. This could bring about a split in the EU.


There is a willingness to do something about it, and our potential welfare problems are as far off as yours, so I think we have a match there. If ours is doomed to fail, then by that logic so will yours.



OPEC will NEVER screw America over because they know what will happen if they do. It's that simple.


Really? Why is it that over the past few months i have read countless ecomic reports to the contrary.

And what exactly will America do? Invade? Lol, watch how quickly you get screwed by everyone then........



China, being a developing country, isn't going to be able to grow and compete like they do. America wants the Chinese to lose their low currency.


If China unpegs its currency, then the dollar will begin to lose value further. This will not only hurt imports (Chinese goods will cost more, which will help balance out the huge disparity in the Global economy), but it will increase the value of you debt, as China holds vast sums of your treasury bonds...

In effect, you are paying for your wars by borrowing of the Chinese. If your currency loses ground, then your debt will increase.

What the US people don't get is that the dollar needs to sink in order to bring round true Globalisation, which is the goal of the international money men.

We cannot have all these powerful econmies around the world, with such a huge difference in wealth.

Something needs to give, and it will be the dollar.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:14 PM
link   

Isn't this the lynchpin of the whole US policy toward OPEC? That if they switch to the Euro, we'll kill them all?


We probably wouldn't have to kill anyone. It will never come to that.

Saudi Arabia is really the big dog in OPEC. Their economy is closely tied with America's. If we go down, they go down. Not to mention that without American support, that government may not be able to survive.

Stumason

Plenty of things come from Europe. Cars, electronics, ships, coal, oil, luxury goods such as wine, computer software (games alone in the uk are worth £2billion/annum)

Can't think the last time I bought an American product..... oooh, no wait, i bought an AMD chip last year, are they American


Europe isn't a consumer society like America. Europe relies on exports, something China does far better.


There is a willingness to do something about it, and our potential welfare problems are as far off as yours, so I think we have a match there. If ours is doomed to fail, then by that logic so will yours.


It's already screwed the two largest economies in the EU. It's not something in the future, its happening right now. Social security really isn't something that would destroy the American economy, either.


Really? Why is it that over the past few months i have read countless ecomic reports to the contrary.

And what exactly will America do? Invade? Lol, watch how quickly you get screwed by everyone then........


What can anyone really do to America? Europe won't go to arms. Russia and China can't go to arms. Economically you can't survive without America. The trade with America is the only thing that keeps China and Europe alive.


If China unpegs its currency, then the dollar will begin to lose value further. This will not only hurt imports (Chinese goods will cost more, which will help balance out the huge disparity in the Global economy), but it will increase the value of you debt, as China holds vast sums of your treasury bonds...


A lower valued dollar means a lower debt. It's easier to pay back.

If Chinese goods cost more, their economy loses its edge. China's economic growth is spurred on by American companies looking for cheap labor. If the dollar in China rises, it means products made there are more expensive. That means the economy of China takes a big hit.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:26 PM
link   

Saudi Arabia is really the big dog in OPEC. Their economy is closely tied with America's. If we go down, they go down.


Go down? You're talking about people who need very little to live. These people do not need TVs or DVDs or Chicken McNuggets. How do you think they'll 'go down'? They live on very little and are far more disciplined with regard to so-called 'quality of life'.

I respect your points, DD, but can you honestly say that America can continue its gluttony without penalty? Aren't you in the least bit afraid of what Americans claim to 'need' in regard to their survival? I ask because as an American, it seems very clear to me that there is NO voice speaking to Americans about changing their wasteful lifestyles and escalating debt. To the contary, every television commerical encourages Americans to continue living 'the good' life by buying Hummers, stupid gadgets made in Asia, etc. Not to mention the endless encouragement to cash in their home equity.

What do you suppose will keep Saudi Arabia from throwing off the US yoke once we really settle in for war over there?





[edit on 16-1-2005 by smallpeeps]

[edit on 16-1-2005 by smallpeeps]

[edit on 16-1-2005 by smallpeeps]



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:32 PM
link   
The Saudi government is as hated as the American government by the terrorists, and many in the Middle East. They have tied their fate to ours.

And the Saudi do enjoy a relatively high standard of living. Their economy would collapse without America.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:34 PM
link   
smallpeeps,
It is a pretty well known factoid that the Saudi Government would be overthrown or displaced if the U.S. ended it's support of it. I think thats the point being made here.




seekerof

[edit on 16-1-2005 by Seekerof]



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:44 PM
link   


Europe isn't a consumer society like America. Europe relies on exports, something China does far better.


Every economy relies on exports. I'd like to see the US economy do so well if no-one bought anything. Besides, the EU's biggest trades are done internally.



It's already screwed the two largest economies in the EU. It's not something in the future, its happening right now. Social security really isn't something that would destroy the American economy, either.


I would hardly call them screwed, and i wouldn't pin the flagging economies reasons on Welfare alone. The reasons are multi-fold, and are the most part due to the Global recession of a few years back, or don't you remember?



What can anyone really do to America? Europe won't go to arms. Russia and China can't go to arms. Economically you can't survive without America. The trade with America is the only thing that keeps China and Europe alive.


Who said anything about war? Is that the first thing you US chaps think of? We would do the most damaging thing you could imagine.

Sanctions.

You don't sell anything we either need/or can't make ourselves, and you don't buy enough to warrant us to let you take control of the Oil Fields.

Outside of trade with itself, the EU's next biggest trading partner is the Far east countries of China and Japan.

Don't think your above us my friend, we can do quite well enough without you.


A lower valued dollar means a lower debt. It's easier to pay back.


Erm....not much logic there chap. A lower dollar value would mean a lower value debt for the country that you owe money too. However, if all you have is dollars, then the value of the debt will not decrease will it, as you have to pay back the debt with those dollars.

Imagine if I had $100 and I lent it too you, and you said you would pay it back in 1 week. You earn $150 a week. But, there are interest charges as well on top, and now the bad news, you have had your wages cut and earn only $100/week. You still owe me the $100+interest, but now have less money to pay me back.

What it means is that the country that you owe much too, namely China and Japan, would start selling off the Treasury bonds, precipitating an economic collapse of said currency.

Remember Argentina?



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:47 PM
link   
Seeker: Yes, and I agree, but I'm pointing to history here.

We thought the Shah of Iran was our boy, and when he went down, who filled that power gap? Surely there was no shortage of Americans who thought it was impossible that an Islamic state would come into power, but it happened.

Osama is a Saudi. What makes any American think that we understand the middle east when we have so poorly managed our affairs there? Sounds like national hubris to me.

I found this article very interesting. The author says:


In addition, there are large Muslim minorities in Saudi Arabia that have suffered unspeakable repression under the Wahhabis, chiefly the Shi'as of the Eastern Province and the southern border zone, who are subjected to extraordinary discrimination. The oil deposits are mainly in the eastern province, and Shi'as are over-represented in the oil industry technical and management class. Shi'as may account for up to a quarter of the Saudi population.


He believes that Islamic nationalism probably won't happen, but the scenario of an elite US backed wealthy class in an Arab country is a road we've been down before and it resulted in two less skyscrapers in New York and our current war.

If none of this is relevant, I'll shut up.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:51 PM
link   
U.S. bonds are denominated in dollars, if there is inflation the U.S. government will have more dollars from tax from inflated salaries but still owe the same amount of dollars in debt. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.

In general, a declining dollar has been good for the U.S. economy and a rising Euro has not been good for the European economies. The UK is thought to be doing better partially because it has stayed out of the Euro.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:54 PM
link   


U.S. bonds are denominated in dollars, if there is inflation the U.S. government will have more dollars from tax from inflated salaries but still owe the same amount of dollars in debt. It's not a difficult concept to grasp.


It works both ways, imports into America, such as OIL will cost more. This will drive up costs in America, and lead to job cuts, wage cuts, and rising prices for consumer products.

You will also be less able to buy in much of what you consume, as it is manufactured abroad.

So, as I stated earlier, there are short term benefits to a sliding dollar, but the long term looks bleak unless something is done!

EDIT: Also, if the value of the Treasury Bonds is falling,as it is denominated in dollars, what makes you think the owners of those will hang on too them?

[edit on 16/1/05 by stumason]



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 10:57 PM
link   

Every economy relies on exports. I'd like to see the US economy do so well if no-one bought anything. Besides, the EU's biggest trades are done internally.


40% of the EU's trade is with America.


I would hardly call them screwed, and i wouldn't pin the flagging economies reasons on Welfare alone. The reasons are multi-fold, and are the most part due to the Global recession of a few years back, or don't you remember?


The European economies have been suffereing since the 70's...Right around the time they started adopting socialist outlooks.


Who said anything about war? Is that the first thing you US chaps think of? We would do the most damaging thing you could imagine.

Sanctions.

You don't sell anything we either need/or can't make ourselves, and you don't buy enough to warrant us to let you take control of the Oil Fields


I clearly mentioned why sanctions were impossible You trade too much with America. It would harm your economies as much as America's.


Outside of trade with itself, the EU's next biggest trading partner is the Far east countries of China and Japan


Not true at all. America is the EU's biggest trading partner, followed by Latin America.


Erm....not much logic there chap. A lower dollar value would mean a lower value debt for the country that you owe money too. However, if all you have is dollars, then the value of the debt will not decrease will it, as you have to pay back the debt with those dollars.


Not quite. You can see some of the logic here:


Secondly, the imperialistic policies of the Bush administration are expensive and must be financed, which means borrowing in international capital markets. The US is currently running a $600 billion current-account deficit (trade deficit adjusted by unilateral transfers such as interest earned abroad). This means the US must borrow more than $1.5 billion per day on a net basis from international lenders. For borrowers such as the US, it is generally easier to pay back loans in a depreciating currency rather than an appreciating one. Due to the large sums involved and a weak domestic economy, a strong dollar would make it more difficult for the US to finance its self-appointed role as the “world’s policeman”.


Source - shareno.net...

While I don't agree with all of the conclusions the author comes to, the facts are mostly true.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 11:44 PM
link   
That sure isn't what analysts in Australia and other countries are saying. The US having a hard time coming to grips with the fact that it won't be the largest economic power in the world for much longer me thinks. Most non US, EU or Chinese analysts (I didnt include analysts from these countries because they have bias) think that China will be the largest economic power by 2020 (give or take a few years) and the EU will surpass the US soon after. At least this is what i have heard on the radio from various experts from various countries who are neutral in the matter. Time will tell and it's likely that no analyst will be 100% correct, a lot can happen in 15 years.



posted on Jan, 16 2005 @ 11:45 PM
link   


40% of the EU's trade is with America.


Ok, I stand half corrected on this. 40% of our external trade is with the US. Seems I have been misinformed somewhat.

Facts & Figures on the European Union & the United States

Does seem we sell more to you than vice versa though, which also surprised me.



The European economies have been suffereing since the 70's...Right around the time they started adopting socialist outlooks.


The EU (or their pre EU equivalents) have had "socialist" policies since long before the 70's. In the 90's, Germany was the strongest EU economy by far, and grew massively.

Blaming it on social welfare is inaccurate, and it is pleasing that the Governments are not willing to throw away looking after the people for the sake of money.



I clearly mentioned why sanctions were impossible You trade too much with America. It would harm your economies as much as America's.


If OPEC switched, and the US took "measures" against the ME countries to secure Oil, I don't think it would be just the EU that would not be willing to let one country (especially the beligerent US) take control of the worlds Oil supply.

Onto your link you posted, i have taken these snippets to support what I was saying:



The US’s increasingly desperate financial condition is not good news for the world. With short-term interest rates near zero, there is little additional economic benefit to be gained from lowering them further. This leaves a cheaper dollar as one of the last levers to stimulate the US economy. As long as lenders are willing to invest in dollar assets, the US can continue to borrow to maintain its current lifestyle. However, if foreign lenders begin to shun US markets because of a falling dollar, it could cause serious problems for the US Government, economy and people.



Now the US itself is in trouble. If the US attempts to fight the rapidly gaining forces of deflation by encouraging a depreciating dollar, it will export deflation to the rest of the world because foreign currencies will rise relative to the dollar. This will damage foreign economies and inhibit their ability to buy goods and services, including those from the US. Since the short-term benefit of a weak dollar to US corporations’ earnings will show up quickly, while the long-term damage to the global economy will become apparent only with the passage of time, it is a fair assumption that the US will take the easy route and worry about the global fallout later.



If confidence in the dollar or dollar assets, such as Treasury bonds, declines, the world may, at some point, reconsider its involvement with US assets. The results of such a reappraisal could be anything from mildly damaging to catastrophic. Seventy-five per cent of the world’s central-bank assets are held in US dollars (as Treasury bonds). These bankers do not want their primary asset to suffer a significant decline


As stated, things don't look to rosy for you chaps.



posted on Jan, 17 2005 @ 01:57 AM
link   

The EU (or their pre EU equivalents) have had "socialist" policies since long before the 70's. In the 90's, Germany was the strongest EU economy by far, and grew massively.


Some of Europe, yes. Not all. France and Germany adopted the socialist policies later. It was only really weak nations like Italy who had strong socialist parties before that.


Blaming it on social welfare is inaccurate, and it is pleasing that the Governments are not willing to throw away looking after the people for the sake of money.


A capitalist system handles it far more affectively than any government could. Not to mention it is nowhere near as moral as people make it out to be.


If OPEC switched, and the US took "measures" against the ME countries to secure Oil, I don't think it would be just the EU that would not be willing to let one country (especially the beligerent US) take control of the worlds Oil supply.


We already do control the world's oil supply, and Europe has been unable to stop us, even with the greatest efforts of the French.


Onto your link you posted, i have taken these snippets to support what I was saying:


I never said I agreed with all the conclusions.

A problem with the American economy would be felt throughout the world. If America goes down, so does the rest of the world. That is where the problem comes for the rest of the world. America can only be taken down with long term (and carefully planned) tactics, not a sudden collapse.



posted on Jan, 17 2005 @ 02:03 AM
link   
Then again the CIA didn't know that the two planes were going to crash into two really big buildings, until they saw it on CNN and Foxnews.

Surf



posted on Jan, 17 2005 @ 02:55 AM
link   
Ok first, there is no "socialist" Europe. There is a difference between "socialist" (a term connected with former boogeyman Russia) and "social democracy", what some EU countries really have. Social democracy is a form of governing system which cares a litttle bit for the poor, while still staying a capitalistic bastard.

With that out of the way...

hehe, I have to say nice scare-mongering tactics by the CIA. Nicely played indeed, but I doubt it will be effective.

Anyone who knows a bit about economy, knows that there is no way anyone can accurately predict the state of economy in 5 years, not to mention 15 years, specially in an unstable world like it is today.

USA and EU have been engaged in a trade "war" for quite some time, and the war is about supremacy on world market.
Untill recently, USA had no real competition, when it comes to being no.1 on world market, but now it does. EU is advancing VERY fast. When you think about it, the berlin wall fell merely 15 years ago, today the whole europe is united. Euro currency is only 5 years old and it is already stable.

The events of recent years have given EU a huge advantage in third world, when it comes to general feeling of people about USA and EU (we all know how that is now, specially in muslim countries).

On top of that, China and India are also finding their way into this "war".

It is not about EU or USA economy falling apart, EU is not out to destroy USA or vice versa. If one of them falls we all fall, they depend on eachother.
It is about who is FIRST, who is number 1, who is the main player.
USA held this place for too long to give it up easy now.
Hence the CIA report. Most things metioned there are not true, incomplete, inacurate and only speculation.

EU has its tactics too. For example, talking about USA only in terms of their military, goverment and wars they fight. To some extent that IS important, but it is also quite irelevant when it comes to certain areas of economics. Just because USA goverment is fighting war in Iraq, doesn't mean that uhmmm lets say Coca Cola, a private company, can't buy off a third world soft drink company and make something out of it. A simple example, but I think you get what I mean.

So, both USA and EU are using psychology to fight this "war".



new topics

top topics



 
0
<< 1    3  4 >>

log in

join