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THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".
The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
* ...its ailing welfare systems
* ...could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population.
...EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role"
* ...the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws
* ...slow-growth pattern
* ...a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years
* ...The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.
* ...Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis
Do you think that these are valid in concern to either the current or future situation(s) in Europe today, despite the inflated value of the Euro?
You are going to have to be more specific about what this statement is alluding too. All economies in the EU are growing, and out of the top ten world economies, at least 5 of them are European.
What exactly is this statement alluding too as well? So the germans get paid holiday, paid sick, and you cant sack someone on the spot for no reason...oh damn, we don't do things like uber-capitalist america? Shame.......
Or....Steady, stable and sustainable growth....
Really?? News to us!! I thought they might be talking about the US and its grossly overweight military spending there!
Overvalued Euro? I think you'll find that it was the US dollar that was overvalued, and is now begining its freefall. If China unpegs the Yuang from the Dollar (which it is thinking about), then you can watch your dollar slide, and watch the Euro rise.
Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. spent $102 billion through Sept. 30 on the invasion and occupation of Iraq, with costs averaging $4.8 billion a month, the Pentagon comptroller's office said today.
The Pentagon spent $3.1 billion in September, the smallest amount since the $2.7 billion spent in November 2003, according to the comptroller. Bush administration officials in February may seek as much as $70 billion in additional Iraq funding in a request separate from the fiscal 2006 defense budget.
"Basically what we were trained to do and what our job is to do is to build up the American empire. To bring - to create situations where as many resources as possible flow into this country, to our corporations, and our government, and in fact we've been very successful. We've built the largest empire in the history of the world ... primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating, through fraud, through seducing people into our way of life, through the economic hit men. I was very much a part of that ... I was initially recruited while I was in business school back in the late '60s by the National Security Agency, the nation's largest and least understood spy organization ... and then [it] send[s] us to work for private consulting companies, engineering firms, construction companies, so that if we were caught, there would be no connection with the government ...
I became its chief economist. I ended up having 50 people working for me. But my real job was deal-making. It was giving loans to other countries, huge loans, much bigger than they could possibly repay. One of the conditions of the loan - let's say a $1 billion to a country like Indonesia or Ecuador - and this country would then have to give 90% of that loan back to a US company, or US companies ... a Halliburton or a Bechtel ... A country today like Ecuador owes over 50% of its national budget just to pay down its debt. And it really can't do it. So we literally have them over a barrel. So when we want more oil, we go to Ecuador and say, "Look, you're not able to repay your debts, therefore give your oil companies your Amazon rain [forests], which are filled with oil." And today we're going in and destroying Amazonian rain forests, forcing Ecuador to give them to us because they've accumulated all this debt ... [We work] very, very closely with the World Bank. The World Bank provides most of the money that's used by economic hit men, it and the IMF."
Definition: Total public and private debt owed to non-residents repayable in foreign currency, goods, or services
Thank you for responding.
I'm glad things are so lovely on your side of the ocean in the UK.
Btw, is Britain/UK part of the EU?
Is what is good in Britain/UK the same in Germany, France, etc?
As for more specifics, stumason. Sorry, but those that I outlined came straight from the article(s).
They're all growing? Yea, just barely. Germany's economy has shrunk a few times in the past year. None of the European economies are growing at any acceptable levels but around 2
Your own workers seem unhappy with the German labor laws. Something is going to have to give, or the unemployment rates will keep soaring. Workers can't get all the benefits they do, while getting huge benefit packages. You can't possibly compete in the world market
You have increasing unemployment (its already at over 10%...), and virtually no growth in your economy. You consider less then a percent of growth steady and stable?
America has been keeping up 4% growth for how long now?
Germany, and most of the EU, has a larger deficit than America. America has kept up greater military spending then we currently do for decades through the Cold War, and it never caused problems.
If there's a problem with the American economy, its worse in Europe. Europeans on here should start taking a long look at their own economies before talking about America's debt.