The Democrats will win the 2016 Presidential election in a landslide. (revised)

a reply to: Indigo5


First hand observation of Oregon's nursery industry says other-wise. Pretty well all the labor is temporary workers, usually from Mexico, that stay for the season and return to Mexico when the nursery season is done. The Mexicans actually prefer that system as the monies earned in the U.S. goes much farther back in Mexico that staying in the U.S. would.

Apparently, it can be done and is, also profitably. Considering how many visa'd individuals disappear when their visa is expired, I have no problem with a few hoops for the employer to jump through.

Still, you have a point. Tweaking rather than reform. If, of course, we can find individuals that aren't bought to do the job.

Bah, NO!! Virtually any 'reform', memo, legislation, rule has some vested interest behind it for their own gain. Period.


We end up with a worse end result and a bigger problem than before it was 'fixed'....No thanks.

The actions of the Right Wing and the Republicans have come back to bite them in the ass. A complete troll was able to take the GOP nomination and the Right Wing minions regurgitate the propaganda and buzzwords without a second thought.

They are brainwashed and it is tearing the party to pieces.

What they have done may possibly guarantee that an entire generation may see nothing but Democrats in the White House.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: Indigo5


First hand observation of Oregon's nursery industry says other-wise. Pretty well all the labor is temporary workers, usually from Mexico, that stay for the season and return to Mexico when the nursery season is done. The Mexicans actually prefer that system as the monies earned in the U.S. goes much farther back in Mexico that staying in the U.S. would.

Apparently, it can be done and is, also profitably. Considering how many visa'd individuals disappear when their visa is expired, I have no problem with a few hoops for the employer to jump through.

I am a numbers person..

Illegal Immigration
Many agricultural workers in Oregon are illegal immigrants. The Mexican Consulate estimates that 80,000 Mexicans have immigrated illegally to Oregon.

www.opb.org...

Oregon’s farmers, like all U.S. farmers, are dependent on undocumented immigrant workers. Agriculture represents about 15 percent all economic activity in Oregon, raking in about $22 billion in profits.

Oregon was the top producer of blackberries, boysenberries, hazelnuts and Christmas trees in the United States in 2013 and there is no doubt, many say, that the business is deeply rooted in the need for undocumented immigrants to pick those crops. According to the National Center for Farm worker Health, about 72 percent of all farm workers in the United States are foreign born – most of them coming from Mexico.

latino.foxnews.com...

Still, you have a point. Tweaking rather than reform. If, of course, we can find individuals that aren't bought to do the job.

Bah, NO!! Virtually any 'reform', memo, legislation, rule has some vested interest behind it for their own gain. Period.


We end up with a worse end result and a bigger problem than before it was 'fixed'....No thanks.

The vested interest behind any reform would be US Farmers...and I am Ok with giving them a voice in DC.

Lastly...the electoral map is brutal for Trump...News analysts have to work incredibly hard to pretend Trump has a path and make the race look interesting and string together states that frankly would never vote GOP even if it wasn't Trump and was some more palatable candidate.

Thing is, he's going to basically redraw the traditional map, because he will win over some of those states where traditionally, the GOP has faltered. Of course, he may lose a couple of traditionally red states too. It really all depends on WHICH states go which way, for the numbers...but I think looking at past trends simply can't predict this current campaign.

I will admit, the map is still not in his favor, but a lot can happen between now and November. For all we know, Hillary may even be up on charges by then (though I highly doubt she'll ever see the courtroom as a defendant.)

a reply to: Indigo5


On the surface, I'd agree the initial vested interests are the U.S. farmers.


What you omit is the 'Free trade' crowd that has as a sub-section the 'free movement of labor' as a basic premise. They would virtually guarantee a far broader 'revision' than the one you suggest. That would have a far greater negative impact on the supply and demand side of wages. Hell the legal workers would be justified in turning in the illegals as the illegals would be keeping their own wages lower.

I've visited with many seasonal workers in Oregon. I can't buy into the sources you cite as Mexico has an obvious vested interest in 'reform'. Logic says why would these worker go through the process of temporary visas when they could just sneak in and work the same jobs. Especially if they worked for the same company or general industry? It doesn't add up.


It always starts with a 'reasonable' argument and ends up an unmitigated disaster. Sorry, we shall have to agree to disagree on that one.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: Indigo5


On the surface, I'd agree the initial vested interests are the U.S. farmers.


What you omit is the 'Free trade' crowd that has as a sub-section the 'free movement of labor' as a basic premise.

The free market always dominates...laws come second.

Demand drives supply...so it is with drugs, so it is with labor...so it is with any supply and demand scenario.

The "Free Trade" crowd doesn't need an agenda..the labor is already here, but illegal. The war on Illegal Labor is like the war on drugs and the best option is to legalize and control it in a way that offers vetting and security and then crack down on those here illegally.

a reply to: Indigo5


I hold the view that 'controlling and vetting' as well as cracking down on illegal workers should be the first order of business.

Reforming the immigration laws is a huge issue with the free trade crowd. Can you really suggest they wouldn't prefer cheap legal labor over illegal??

I hold the Free Trade crowd and the Republicans that have that as a fundamental 'conservative principal' as the greatest destroyer of the American economy...EVER. It is the brick that broke the camel's back as far as me calling myself a conservative. Trade, business trumps the nation's needs? BULL. Traitors one and all.


Now that's a conservative stance. Nation before business. It held true for the democrats in the day as well.

a reply to: nwtrucker

FYI - Betting odds as of yesterday have Trump at 30% and Hillary at 70%
www.oddsshark.com...

a reply to: nwtrucker

Agriculture is an exception worth pondering.

Absent labor to harvest crops, farms move to south America...and we need farms in the USA...apart form me just liking the farmer culture, it's a security issue. If the world goes to crap the USA should not be depending on China or South America for it's food supply.

As a business owner it harder to make a buck under Obama every day.

WTF if Hillary wins I guess I'll sell my company and move south. I have my eye on a little fishing village on the east coast of Mexico. Fresh seafood, warm winters, margaritas, and friendly females. Hell I think I'll go now.

You guys figure out who's going to rule the world. But I am willing to bet it want be Hillary. Surly the people aren't that dumb.

originally posted by: Gazrok

Lastly...the electoral map is brutal for Trump...News analysts have to work incredibly hard to pretend Trump has a path and make the race look interesting and string together states that frankly would never vote GOP even if it wasn't Trump and was some more palatable candidate.

Thing is, he's going to basically redraw the traditional map, because he will win over some of those states where traditionally, the GOP has faltered. Of course, he may lose a couple of traditionally red states too. It really all depends on WHICH states go which way, for the numbers...but I think looking at past trends simply can't predict this current campaign.

He is calling it the "rust-belt" strategy...and the problem there is that he has to win every single one...and some of those states are Hillary +5 or +* and haven't voted GOP for decades.

He is looking to present himself as Blue-Collar for this strategy...which hasn't sold well.

The way it looks now he will lose some Red States, like Florida. I just don't see it happening.

I'm placing my prediction here. Hillary wins in one of the biggest landslides (if not the biggest) in US election history.

Also, Trump will not call Hillary to congratulate her because he is that big of a pansy crybaby.

a reply to: Indigo5

He has not lost Florida.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

This is going to be an election that truly does not follow the normal chart of states. I would say the only state he truly cannot win that would help would be CA. But NY, and Florida...a few more and it is a done deal.

This will be very interesting to see what happens before the conventions.

originally posted by: matafuchs
a reply to: Indigo5

He has not lost Florida.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

He is losing in 6 of the last 7 polls in Florida and the Hispanic vote is under-represented in those polls.


Yes, he is losing Florida.

This is going to be an election that truly does not follow the normal chart of states. I would say the only state he truly cannot win that would help would be CA. But NY, and Florida...a few more and it is a done deal.

That assessment is contradicted by polls, reason and reality.

originally posted by: BrokedownChevy
I'm placing my prediction here. Hillary wins in one of the biggest landslides (if not the biggest) in US election history.

Also, Trump will not call Hillary to congratulate her because he is that big of a pansy crybaby.

I'll add to that ...Trump will declare bankruptcy within months of losing the election. He has refused to release tax returns, it has been recently revealed that he got a tax credit in NYC for last year and this year that is only eligible to those making less than 500k. He needs to win the WH so he can do a little looting and pillaging...he is on the verge of bankruptcy...again.

originally posted by: Nickn3
As a business owner it harder to make a buck under Obama every day.

What kind of business do you own where the President of the United States is personally responsible for your success or failure?

Alas...the party of responsibility...

a reply to: Indigo5

Obviously, your not a business owner....

a reply to: Indigo5


Have you considered writing a science-fiction series for TV?....

a reply to: Indigo5

Uh, maybe you misunderstood me. I'm not advocating those things, NWtrucker and I were discussing the things Hilary will do when she's coronated by CNN.

a reply to: TonyS

Not much response from the left side as far as an invitation to meet in the center is there? LOL.


I wonder what the outcome would be if they applied the same....verve..in evaluating Hillary as they creations on Trump.....