The Democrats will win the 2016 Presidential election in a landslide. (revised)

This OP was written in March, 2015.

The revision will be in the second post:

There you have it. A conservative's prediction.

Pass the tissues...

The epiphany struck this morning. The pieces all fell into place. Consider the 'massive' Republican win in the Mid-Terms. Impressive? Sure.

Yet the Democrats point out how small the voter turnout was and how close the split the percentile was. They are right.

The Presidential election bring out far more voters and that changes the demographics and the political rhetoric. The impressive mid-term wins have resulted in nothing but bragging rights for the right. Except possibly a slowed left agenda, no real stellar example of those wins translating into meaningful results for the people who elected them. WWW.Squat.

All the Democrats need is a few more percentiles in the vote to win the Presidency again. This is how they will/could get a lot more than a few percentiles.

Already trial ballooned, an early and massive campaign to raise the national minimum wage to 12-15 dollars will produce much interest and participation by the younger voters. After all, it's only fair....

As the family unit has already been relegated to nothing more than the source of Domestic Abuse, it will be time to fix these injustices by creating a National Day Care Act. This will properly help those women in need with children....long over due. As there are now probably millions in this group, another big jump in the percentiles.

Another already trial ballooned, the Obama program fro two year free education at a community college will be expanded to 4 years at any major university. Long overdue. Concurrently, forgive student loans...
There's some more middle class votes....

Any combination of these would tip the balance completely.

Not enough, you say?..OK.

An executive order announcing the two national languages. English AND Spanish. Both becoming mandatory school requirements. There's the Latino vote

The big sin finally addressed . Slavery. Financial compensation to all African-Americans for the big sin. Let's say 50K per man, woman and child. Of course this is spread out over ten years so as to not overburden the rest of us....and ensure a Democrat President in 2020 and 2024 lest a Republican gets elected and cancels the compensation. Restoring the slipping African-American vote....again, only fair and long overdue....

All of the above have been discussed and trial-ballooned in some fashion. This society-me, me, now, now, is set up for it.

Countering it is the Republicans who are in an internal fight over the definition, goals and leadership of that party.

Who will be the president? Does it matter? Al Sharpton would win with this many righteous compensations. Likely Elizabeth Warren.

How is it paid for? Guffaw. The same way as the last eight years. Only more so, massive military cuts, perhaps cuts to those who are above a certain limit of income/assets from social security, and of course, Taxing the rich. It doesn't matter whether this is paid for or not as it will work. It will work because those receiving these new benefits don't care how it's being paid for...Simple.

The debacle that is the A.C.A. and immigration reform will be overwhelmed by the excitement of these new progressive ideas. a Democrat landslide.

I see no way to defeat this strategy.

a reply to: nwtrucker

I briefly thought WTF when I saw a few general election polls showing trump ahead a couple weeks back...but then I researched those polls.

(A) They were rigged..

Rasmussen poll that shows Clinton losing by 5 points to Trump and winning less than half the non-white vote.

That doesn’t seem right.

It’s not. She will likely win 70 to 80 percent of the nonwhite vote.

...

the Fox poll has Trump getting 23 percent of the Latino vote
also shows the electorate +1 Republican even though Democrats have a 6 to 7 point advantage in voter registration.
...

The NBC poll that has Clinton up by 3 points gives Trump 28 percent of the Latino vote.

www.bostonglobe.com...

Etc. etc.

Why would pollsters put out grossly messed up polls with samples dramatically biased to show trump equal or winning?

Two reasons...
(A) The media makes money from the horserace...everybody watches a close race, much less so if the media says one candidate is going to get crushed badly.

(B) The RNC and Trump needs to raise money and donors wont give to a lost cause..The RNC can apply pressure and influence to certain pollsters to encourage them to come out with favorable polls...technically accurate...but the samples heavily skewed to favor Trump.

And as far as non-poll factors...

We have a similar scenario to Obama 08 and 12...where the younger generation and minorities are cell-phone only and not listed numbers. They are very difficult Poll and in the last couple elections ended up making many pollsters look stupid on election day. Hillary is crushing with minorities and the youth vote and will do so more once Bernie drops out...she will get some to most of those votes as pure anti-trump votes and she doesn't need many of them to make the difference. Bernie supporters will not translate to Trump in any numbers that matter, despite what the trump campaign is hoping for. That is just reality.

Lastly...the electoral map is brutal for Trump...News analysts have to work incredibly hard to pretend Trump has a path and make the race look interesting and string together states that frankly would never vote GOP even if it wasn't Trump and was some more palatable candidate.

You know I lean left, but objectivity and numbers is a thing with me and come first.

By the numbers, Trump is going to get seriously hammered.

a reply to: nwtrucker

There are a few other things to consider....

The GOP doesn't want to win!! You just can't pissoff women, insult minorities, intellectuals, the neocon establishment, and expect to win. They know this and are seemingly comfortable being the party of "NO"

The Libertarians are going to surprise everyone this go round! Thanks to Republicans bailing on Trump and the Conservative Christian Coalition.


We need more alternatives!

Not too shabby for a dumb-assed trucker, if I say so myself.

So much has changed despite those predictions. A revision is necessary.

Then? I was a right-wing, Republican/Tea party supporting individual.

Now? I disavow myself from the Republican party/Tea party and call myself a right leaning centrist.( In this I am willing to forgo some of my conservative views in the name of unity and recovery of the U.S. of A..) The nation is more important than my personal views, simply put.

There was no predicting Trump, Sanders and the amazing amount of dirt both the left and the right have engendered.

Now I'm less certain of an overwhelming Democrat win. I am certain of a few things, however, and I would point them out and hope they prove out equally well.

It doesn't matter who Hillary picks as a running mate. If she follows the above and adds in some, if not all, of Sanders offerings....even more, the confidence level for that crowd remains, rightfully, high.

Next, I am convinced if the nation doesn't return to a more centrist stance, we are finished as a nation. At least in any form resembling out past levels.

Trump MAY offer the best chance of that. Having said that, I feel Trump shouldn't pick a political insider as a running mate. He is more than capable of hiring/consulting said experts without having an 'insider' heartbeats any from the Presidency and all that implies....why mince words...not just a heartbeat....a bullet, an impeachment away as well. A temptation best avoided....

OK, what have I missed in this???

I got as far as this:

The big sin finally addressed . Slavery. Financial compensation to all African-Americans for the big sin. Let's say 50K per man, woman and child. Of course this is spread out over ten years so as to not overburden the rest of us.


Total unadulterated BS.

As an Irish descendant whose ancestors were sold into slavery.... if anybody gets a check.... I get one too. You conveniently forgot the poor white Irish slave trade that preceded the African slave trade.

What about the descendants of the blacks that owned slaves themselves.... they should have to pay 50,000 to each descendant of the slaves their ancestors owned as well?

Yet trump shattered the primary voter record by 1.4 million votes.
That's with a dozen other players in the race to.

www.thegatewaypundit.com...

The ironic thing is...

The Republicans are about to "Fire" Trump...one way or another. You called it correctly!

They simply will not allow him to upset the established gravy train.

www.rawstory.com...

All the dire predictions you stated won't happen. Capitalism still has a few good years left.

a reply to: nwtrucker

Where is the growing black, hispanic, and other minority, soon to be majority, in your calculation? Will they vote republican over Hillary? I think not.

a reply to: RickinVa

Bro, my OP then was laced with sarcasm......

originally posted by: nwtrucker

Now? I disavow myself from the Republican party/Tea party and call myself a right leaning centrist.( In this I am willing to forgo some of my conservative views in the name of unity and recovery of the U.S. of A..) The nation is more important than my personal views, simply put.

Well...for the sake of unity and recovery of the USA...Myself as mostly liberal will say this...about 25% of the SJW's have a good point...the other 75% are idiot kids that don't know what to do with their life and think adopting some cause blindly..very blindly... gives them purpose. I am on board with seriously reflecting why a ton of African Americans end up shot and beaten by police or in jail...but when the SJW start bullying white kids for having dreadlocks etc..? They jump the shark. They are just dumb and desperate to assign purpose to their lives inventing issues..they distract from the real problems we face in this country...which yes, involves real racism at times...and a ton of other stuff.

originally posted by: nwtrucker
a reply to: RickinVa

Bro, my OP then was laced with sarcasm......

lol I apologize..... nothing sets me off like the idea of slave reparations.... being a white man married to a black woman, it has made for some interesting conversations in my house.

An executive order announcing the two national languages. English AND Spanish.

That is an INSULT to millions of AA's,French,Dutch,German,Asian, and other American ethnic groups.

There should be only one language,and for over 200 years millions of Americans that came before us learned it.

English.

originally posted by: Bluntone22
Yet trump shattered the primary voter record by 1.4 million votes.
That's with a dozen other players in the race to.

www.thegatewaypundit.com...

That's all dandy, but the primary only accounts for the registered republicans. Only about 30% of registered voters are republican. To win the presidential election either side will need far more than their base.

originally posted by: nwtrucker

It doesn't matter who Hillary picks as a running mate. If she follows the above and adds in some, if not all, of Sanders offerings....even more, the confidence level for that crowd remains, rightfully, high.

What is important here is that Hillary has options..She would be wise to pick someone not establishment....and yes a bold move would be Bernie..but I am not getting my hopes up.

Trump on the other hand? No one wants the job...It scares the crap out of most GOP Politicans, they have no idea what they will be forced to defend from day to day...the size of his penis? Japan getting nukes? No one wants to risk their career for what very likely is a lost cause anyway...except Christie..and I am pretty sure that is what Trump will settle with for lack of better options.

a reply to: neo96


No argument from me...

originally posted by: nwtrucker

Not enough, you say?..OK.

An executive order announcing the two national languages. English AND Spanish. Both becoming mandatory school requirements. There's the Latino vote

The big sin finally addressed . Slavery. Financial compensation to all African-Americans for the big sin. Let's say 50K per man, woman and child.

Increased minimum wage? On board with..

Free College? Yes please..Average costs are 250K per child now.

Both of those items are non-partisan ways to help a rapidly shrinking middle class..

But as far as reparations for slavery??? Not sure how closely you have been paying attention, but that is the fringe of fringe of the left. Virtually no democrats, including Obama think that is warranted.

America is about equal OPPORTUNTIY...Handing out cash does not do that. I think the left (myself included) would settle for less African Americans ending up in jail for minor offenses, scaling back on the drug war as far as users and less over-policing of the African American community...better Opportunity to earn a living...not able to get jobs with that marijuana conviction on their record etc. etc. Equal Opportunity..

And the two national languages? Spanish and English? that is dumb and no one is on board with that left or right.

Actions speak louder than words

And Hillary's past actions should make everyone fear for the future of the people in this country

As much as I'd hate to see Bernie get into the office being as weak and delusional as he is, at least he doesn't have a history of destroying everything around him. I'll take it over Hillary any day.

If voting actually mattered, I would say you are on the right track, but it doesn't matter, except to be used as a statistical measure of which type of propaganda worked the best in this election year, so they know how to proceed from this point.

I think we have some real surprises yet to come, before the appointment election of the president. It's going to get real interesting soon.

a reply to: Indigo5


Perhaps 'for the sake of the nation' is the crux of our problem. It seems long gone in the name of party, agenda and personal gain/benefit.


Where are UAW members? They're the ones facing job loss with Ford and GM building plants in Mexico and China. Why aren't they massively demanding their leadership speak out and at least threatening to endorse Trump if no action is taken to block these moves.


I will now consider myself 'pro-union' if it keeps their jobs!! Where the F**k are they????

a reply to: nwtrucker

My brother-in-law is a mid-level UAW leader in the Midwest. He is a strong Bernie supporter and strongly anti-Hillary...a Strange mix of being anti-GOP, but echoes right wing attacks on Clinton...Benghazi, Emails etc. He is seriously torn about what he will do if Bernie loses. He might write in a protest candidate. Hates Hillary, but hates Trump more..

Don't know if he is indicative of the UAW at large, but there's that anecdote.