USAF warms to the idea of an upgraded F-22 line.

a reply to: Imperium Americana

So, basically, automation will benefit manufacturing in China even more---local infrastructure, and automation will get over the quality problems.

An American company will build robots with AI in China instead of Indiana, because that's their ideology. They have such a strong ideology that American manufacturing is impossible and even undesirable.

originally posted by: mbkennel
a reply to: Imperium Americana

So, basically, automation will benefit manufacturing in China even more---local infrastructure, and automation will get over the quality problems.

An American company will build robots with AI in China instead of Indiana, because that's their ideology. They have such a strong ideology that American manufacturing is impossible and even undesirable.

Which brings us back to the original 'debate', whether we will see 2 6th Gen and/or a new run/variant of the F-22.

Hey! Wait a minute! Let's get China to build if for us.....

a reply to: mbkennel

No, I see if more as China will build in China and etc. AI controlled robotics will virtually eliminate labor costs as a major budgetary line item. This cost saving will eventually be distributed across all sectors of a supply chain. This reduction undercuts any advantage in using commodities with a 'long tail' The exception might be in heavy commodities but I see this as also being advantaged. Ex. a factory, in Germany, would still be competitive buying domestic materials.

I do not think for a second American companies have an implicit bias against domestic production. The do have a bias against not producing profit, IP theft, QA failures. If they can produce a well made product, that will not be easily ripped off, and still add shareholder value, they will do it.

As far as starting the F-22 line, I do not see any good reason why they could not start up production. I remember years ago when people mention we should restart F-22 production. Numerous people said the tooling was gone. Turns out, nope tooling is still there. Now the debate shifts to facilities or legacy info or labor.

I think all of these are legit concerns. But it strikes me as a smoke screen. I think the USAF wants to focus on a 6th gen. They are getting pressure from above and so they pay lip service to investigating the possibility. Meanwhile a few unofficial phone calls later, LM works up a cost profile that is outrageous (due to legacy issues and etc.) and the USAF can beg off owing to fiduciary responsibilities.

a reply to: Imperium Americana


Forgive my jumping in as you aren't addressing you post to me...obviously.

What, potentially, does a political shift in the Presidency offer that could change this equation/scenario?

I see your point on there purpose being profit, not bias. Having said that, one would think all that would be required to start reversing this is change the profit margins to one that is more profitable in staying in the U.S. or even returning some number based on future profits.

In other words, assuming you were so inclined, what would YOU do to bring more of a balance to the manufacturing issues facing the U.S.?

a reply to: nwtrucker

What, potentially, does a political shift in the Presidency offer that could change this equation/scenario?

I do not think either potential candidates will affect the coming changes either positively or negatively. Even excluding both parties pro-business stance (in reality), these changes will be so fundamental that they are essentially unstoppable. It would have been like someone in 1990 trying to stop the information revolution.

I see your point on there purpose being profit, not bias. Having said that, one would think all that would be required to start reversing this is change the profit margins to one that is more profitable in staying in the U.S. or even returning some number based on future profits.

This is already occurring. Automation increases profitability. Also inflationary pressure in countries like China and India has already eroded profitability. It took 30 years for this to occur, it will probably take another generation to unwind.

What, potentially, does a political shift in the Presidency offer that could change this equation/scenario?

I would not do much to change anything. This is a evolution driven by innovation. And what do you by balance. Do we really want all production sectors back in the US? Many of the sectors of production, that were off-shored to Asia, were dirty. Let them have it and the costs associated with environmental regulations. The cost of compliance is much lower in those countries than in western economies.

An interesting thought, concerning the F-22 production restart, is what effect automation would have in the future. I could foresee that a more automated and intelligent production line would be far easier to restart. I would be interested in seeing what legacy protection schemes LM has/had in place for the F-22. We thoroughly document all information on each project to avoid a situation in which we would need to consult with retired employees for work on existing sites. I havea hard time believing that LM is so bush league as to allow a huge loss of legacy.

Wouldn't an upgraded F-22 pretty much be a 6th gen fighter?

a reply to: vettex2

No more than an upgraded F-15 is a Fifth Generation fighter. There's generally a fairly large gap between generations.

Robots are widely used in the manufacturing of sub assemblies, but human are needed too, they are not the answer ba a long way just yet, build me a robot that can create and install some of the spaghetti wiring, it takes dexterity no robot has!

And don't me started of the day time honoured t addition of fettling!

a reply to: mbkennel

You've made some really good points that I did not originally consider. I still don't completely agree but I'll have to concede defeat at this point in time.

Also personal issues at the moment.