Trump beats Hillary in Fox Poll

www.foxnews.com...

Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, according to a new Fox News Poll that also finds majorities of voters feel both frontrunners lack strong moral values and will say anything to get elected.

Trump has a 45-42 percent edge over Clinton, if the presidential election were held today. That’s within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Last month, Clinton was up by 48-41 percent (April 2016).

- Emphasis added

Sure, it's "Faux" news, but still, felt it shows that the commonly held idea that Hillary is a sure-win, is not so common after all.

I imagine polls will continue to flip-flop from now until November, right up to election day (unless she's in jail, lol)

The latest Rasmussen Poll is even more favorable, with Trump ahead of Clinton by 5 points.

The better indicator though of how it may play out, is the trend of the most common polls. Earlier this year, Clinton led typically by around 10 points or more. Lately, any leads have been mostly single digit ones, clearly showing a closure of that gap, and a much closer race.

a reply to: Gazrok

And this is without any real details about the FBI investigation into her emails... yet.

The big part is his favorability, especially with GOP women now ticking up about 20%...

originally posted by: Gazrok
www.foxnews.com...

Donald Trump tops Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, according to a new Fox News Poll that also finds majorities of voters feel both frontrunners lack strong moral values and will say anything to get elected.

Trump has a 45-42 percent edge over Clinton, if the presidential election were held today. That’s within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Last month, Clinton was up by 48-41 percent (April 2016).

- Emphasis added

Sure, it's "Faux" news, but still, felt it shows that the commonly held idea that Hillary is a sure-win, is not so common after all.

I imagine polls will continue to flip-flop from now until November, right up to election day (unless she's in jail, lol)

The latest Rasmussen Poll is even more favorable, with Trump ahead of Clinton by 5 points.

The better indicator though of how it may play out, is the trend of the most common polls. Earlier this year, Clinton led typically by around 10 points or more. Lately, any leads have been mostly single digit ones, clearly showing a closure of that gap, and a much closer race.

Just a note on polls...and nothing political here..

We are in the midst of time when more and more people are switching to cell-phones only.

And it skews younger..

When Pres. Obama took office close to 90% of American Households had land-lines.

Now it is only 50% with the other 50% being cell phone only.

It is mostly the younger generation that is driving the trend.

www.statista.com...

* My point is that with all Polls, the first thing we should look for is what percentage were polled on land-line vs. cell, since that is the biggest driver of inaccuracy.

No idea on this particular poll, but for those who care about poll accuracy this election season, that is the number to look for.

A poll can be biased (pro liberal) if greater than 50% of it is cell phones..and it can be biased (pro conservative) if greater than 50% is land-line...cuz older folks vote more conservative and older folks have land-lines...the reverse works as well.

Hillary is falling while Trump is rising, she can't even close the deal with Sanders.

It's ironic how everyone thought the Republicans would be going into a contested convention... now it seems like it will be the Democrats if California swings toward Sanders.

originally posted by: Konduit
Hillary is falling while Trump is rising, she can't even close the deal with Sanders.

It's ironic how everyone thought the Republicans would be going into a contested convention... now it seems like it will be the Democrats if California swings toward Sanders.

Yep.

The GOP should be rooting for Hillary over Bernie. This same poll shows Bernie beating Trump by 4 Points.

Actual Poll Here: www.foxnews.com...

Other notes:
They got the cell phone vs. land line mix correct.
The margin or error was big for African Americans..+/- 9%...as well as independents +/- 8% and it had party affiliation as +1 Republican to Dem, which seems out of bounds to party affiliation trackers like Gallup who has it dems +6 www.gallup.com...

Other than that, the poll looks to have some teeth, would like to see a few more before declaring a trend.

www.realclearpolitics.com... Look at the trend in the last 30 days...she is dropping.

The two latest polls for the week of 5/14 show 2 leaning to Trump.

Fox News is +3
Rasmussen Reports +5

The 4 previous polls

Clinton +2, +6, +13 and + 7

That is a lot of change in a few weeks....

Also, take a look at the head to heads in each state...

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Much different than a few month ago

a reply to: matafuchs

I would agree Clinton is seeing a drop..

I am just skeptical on the degree of that drop.

She is still in a tough race for nomination and Bernie is roughing her up some.

Trump no longer has the nomination fight to contend with.

And as cynical as it sounds..having followed politics for many an election cycle...this is the time where the GOP needs to gather cash and to do so, they need to make a case that Trump can win in order for donors to pony-up. Fox and Rasmussen are the only recent polls showing Trump ahead...yes there is some truth to those polls, but there is also some known conservative bias...and the GOP needs good polls right now to convince donors to get in the game...so I read those numbers with skepticism and will wait for more neutral polls to confirm the trend.

a reply to: Indigo5

Well, he stopped off to kiss Kissinger's ring so let the money start to flow.

For the DNC, Hillary's battle is not over by a long shot no matter what the MSM says. If Trump is smart, he will let these two bleed each other and come out swinging post convention.

The only reason Trump didn't beat her and Bernie before is because there were 2 democrats and 17 republicans. Like a Ted Cruz nutbag or a Jeb fan would give Trump the nod in a poll back then. When its one on one the polls will change and trump will topple her. We just need to figure out what will happen with Bernie.

Right now Hillarys biggest problem isn't the FBI or Trump, her problem is Bernie supporters. I am going to say right now that the DNC wont let him go to the convention if/when that witch gets gets the magic number, maybe Cali. The DNC, HILLARY and her "CONTRIBUTORS" will never let the Bernie people embarrass her on stage live on t.v. Hillary will probably never even get on stage with Bernie again lol, she knows what is going to happen. Hillary has no enthusiasm in her support, Trump and Bernie have enthusiastic supporters.

Its obvious to me that Trump will win this. Its as obvious as Obama beating Romney, just kind of knew. Trump knows it too, he isn't an idiot at least on a business level, Im voting Trump.

On a personal note, I know one Hillary supporter and I cant stand to talk to them. I know lots of Bernie supporters, they hate Hillary and some of the guys are going to vote Trump if Bernie loses,in our state we don't have to switch political denominations to swing vote. Id vote Bernie if trump lost 100% ! even though I don't aree with Bernie on everything I don't agree with Trump on everything either. Neither is co-responsible for the murders of embassy workers.

a reply to: MEDIKATED

Bernie Sanders accepted the offer Fox News made for a debate before the California Primary. Clinton is "no comment" so far.

Bernie Sanders accepts Fox News debate invitation

Sanders pushes Clinton for debate in California

a reply to: Konduit

Yeah okay. The deal is already closed. She goes over June 7th. Win or lose California. She only needs 85 more delegates.
Even if Bernie won 75% of the vote which would never happen she would still get the nomination.

a reply to: Sillyolme

"I would've gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky Superdelegates!"

a reply to: MEDIKATED

Why would the Bernie supporters embarrass her on live tv? To prove to the nation what some people say about them?
The DNC won't exclude Bernie. It's not run by children.

a reply to: Konduit

It is what it is. These are the rules everybody was made aware of before the starting gun.
Bernie sure seems to want them pretty badly.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: MEDIKATED

Why would the Bernie supporters embarrass her on live tv? To prove to the nation what some people say about them?
The DNC won't exclude Bernie. It's not run by children.

The DNC is run by Debbie Wasserman Schultz, which is even worse than if it were run by children. She sticks her foot in her mouth every time she is interviewed.

a reply to: UnBreakable

Opinion.
Stick to reality. There is no way they would exclude Bernie Sanders from the convention.
That is never going to happen.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: Konduit

Yeah okay. The deal is already closed. She goes over June 7th. Win or lose California. She only needs 85 more delegates.
Even if Bernie won 75% of the vote which would never happen she would still get the nomination.

True, unless the super delegates switch to Bernie.

Which could happen if the FBI closes in on her.

The race is so close that there super delegates can decide who wins.

a reply to: pianopraze

Alright yes if the nearly impossible happens and the FBI recommends indictment then Bernie wins the superdelegates.
Barring that he needs to win over 75% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number and Hillary only needs 10% of the remaining delegates to get there. Those are some pretty high odds.

a reply to: Sillyolme

You speak in too many absolutes. If, and I say if, she hits the delegate count it may be a matter of him and his supporters not even showing up. Why would they? To convince the bad perm leader that they should be on the ticket and not Hillary?