Researchers say there's small, yet possible, chance devastating tsunami hits Hawaii

Researchers at University of Hawaii at Manoa have determined that there’s a small, but potential, chance that Hawaii would suffer from a direct hit from a mega tsunami in the next 50 years.

Hawaii News Now reported Friday that a study about the possibility of a tsunami generated from a magnitude-9.0 earthquake near the Aleutian Islands was published this week in the Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth.

Researchers gave the event a 9 percent chance of happening.

We all know this is possible, but it always gives me the heebs when scientists "remind them to be prepared for the possibility of a catastrophic event and be prepared." 9 percent also seems to be a pretty high probability to me. When was the last magnitude-9.0 earthquake on the planet?

Sometimes I feel privileged to live inland.

Sou rce

What would ATS do without a daily dosage of Doom Porn ?

If this happens within the next 50 years, it will be the end of the Universe.... And so, and so on.

The elite lizards feed off the fear that these rumors create. It seems they really are getting desperate now whilst the frog is sleeping in the warm cauldron simply because the elite are running out of rumors (fuel) to burn.

a reply to: bonsaihorn

Full PDF available

The journal article is available in full as well at the link above.

I can't quote because of the typeset, but according to the article they use 5 9+ events over the past 115 years to predict the odds over the next 50.

a reply to: bonsaihorn

Researchers gave the event a 9 percent chance of happening.

How does one qualify to become a "researcher" and get paid for expressing the obvious?

Here's mine...a tornado will wipe out a trailer park in Kansas. 2k please.

a reply to: olaru12

They have legit credentials, I linked the access point to the full pdf above.

a reply to: bonsaihorn

But their "legit credentials" aren't telling us anything really useful though. Anybody that has 2oz.of common sense to rub together could have told them this.

originally posted by: bonsaihorn
a reply to: olaru12

They have legit credentials, I linked the access point to the full pdf above.

I have a credential from the Triple A school of Bartending and I know some smart people....

Here's another prediction...no charge!

Southern Florida should expect rain in July and Arizona may have temperatures around 100 degrees.

a reply to: bonsaihorn

This is hardly a revelation, but those dismissing this should perhaps think again.
This kind of research is not done in a vacuum, it's not a single issue, they are not "paid too much money" to make a statement like this, they are constantly working to research Geological risks to ALL AREAS, and when they have something to state they state it.

No, it's not shocking or surprising that an island in a highly active area might face a tsunami in the next 50 years, if they had spent millions of $'s coming to that conclusion alone then you would all have reason to bitch.

They didn't do that though, they produced one bit of information from a massive ocean of other data relevant to that one local paper, and you all jump on it as though these people are being paid bucket loads of cash to state the obvious.

Anyone from the Pacific northwest hears this same crap about once a month. 9+ earthquake coming... Any day now. Buy your prep kits.

This is NOT a good place to focus your emotional energy. Real life is happening just outside. And I've never been to Hawaii so if it disapeers I doubt that I'd notice much.

a reply to: Mrgone

This is NOT a good place to focus your emotional energy. Real life is happening just outside. And I've never been to Hawaii so if it disapeers I doubt that I'd notice much.

I think I'd rather live in Hawaii with the possibility of a Tsunami than Enid Oklahoma and be blown away by a tornado.

Another free prediction....Tornadoes and sever thunderstorms with large hail in and around OK city this summer.


Buy Your Prep Kits!!!

a reply to: watchitburn

That's the problem though isn't it? Not many people have that much common sense.

a reply to: YachiruKusajishi

Well then let nature take its course.

Cool, well I'll give them a more accurate prediction, and if it comes true, give me a scholar!

A large tsunami is going to hit Hawaii sometime between now and the next 500 years.
Also, It's going to rain in NYC sometime between now and the next 500 years.

Oh and earth will rotate around the sun 2 times in the next 2 years!

a reply to: Kuroodo

You guys are getting a little ridiculous on this. I followed the link and apparently it is complicated to get to the article from there, I apologize. The full article title is "Bayesian Probabilities for Mw 9.0+ Earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands from a Regionally Scaled Global Rate" in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Below are their credentials.

Rhett Butler*, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii USA.

L. Neil Frazer*, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii USA.

William J. Templeton, Ocean Resources and Engineering, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii USA. Now at Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA

Corresponding author: R. Butler, Hawai'i Institute of Geophysics and Planetology University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1680 East-West Road, POST 602, Honolulu, Hawaii 96821 U.S.A. ([email protected]).

I try to keep my sources scholarly.


Maybe this link will go directly to the PDF!

I don't feel too worried. We live a little ways up a mountain so we should be fine. If the tsunami is going to be catastrophic then we are jumping in the car and heading up to mauna kea. A teacher once told me that if all the ice in the world melted, mauna kea would be one of the very few places left that would be above water.

a reply to: ckhk3
If Hilo harbor is wiped out. If Kahului is wiped out. If Honolulu harbor and the fuel tanks at Kalaeloa are wiped out.
If Hilo airport is wiped out. If the Honolulu reef runway is wiped out.

Well, the Islands will be having big problems. There is not enough food produced in the islands to support the population. There is no fuel.

a reply to: Phage

When thinking of how some people live in the modern day, your right, many depend on those things and may not survive. People still know how to survive solely off the land. I can use horses for transportation, hunt in the forests, and get my water from the primary source (mauna kea).