China, India Predicted to Rival US Power by 2020 (moved from ATSNN)

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By 2020 the world's economy will have grown by 80 percent and average incomes will have risen by half as India and China -- which together will account for more than a third of the planet's population -- surpass Europe and compete with the United States as the major global powers, top US intelligence analysts forecast yesterday

But poor governance, the absence of freedom, and a lack of technological development, among other factors, could mean that some regions will not reap the benefits of the enormous global changes, potentially resulting in a period of ''pervasive insecurity" that will leave no nation unaffected, according to National Intelligence Council analysts, who represent all US intelligence agencies. In particular, international terrorism will continue to pose a major threat, the council said.

''The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players . . . will transform the geopolitical landscape with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries," according to the 100-page study, ''Mapping the Global Future," which was compiled with input from 1,000 specialists who gathered over the past year during 30 conferences on five continents.

The accelerated growth of the world's economy will benefit developed as well as undeveloped nations. Asia probably will displace the United States and Western Europe as ''the focus for international economic dynamism," the study said.




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