A Psychologist Talks About Normalcy Bias and Situational Awareness

John Wesley Smith
Posted on September 7, 2012
Categories Survival Musings

.
To talk about that on DestinySurvival Radio yesterday was clinical psychologist Dr. Steven Futrell. He was on the show a few weeks ago and you can read about that interview here:
.
"A Psychologist Talks About the Prepper Mindset"
.
destinysurvival.com...
.
Yesterday Steven and I dissected two broad topics–normalcy bias and situational awareness.
.
Normalcy bias is the idea that people believe nothing bad will happen because it hasn’t happened before. It’s also known as analysis paralysis, incredulity response or the ostrich effect. Of course, that last one refers to someone behaving like an ostrich who puts its head in the sand.
.
Many people can’t get their head around the idea that things could get bad. Many simply refuse to accept the truth. It doesn’t help when the media bombards us with the idea that we’re in economic recovery, even though they say it may be a slow one. It’s easier and more comfortable to believe that kind of message.
.
. . .
.

.
ENTIRE AUDIO DISCUSSION:
.
www.blogtalkradio.com...
.

"Normalcy Bias" vs "Situational awareness"
.
Why no one or very few even attempt to disarm any of the shooters in the dramatic school shootings of the last few years? Did Normalcy Bias leave folks catatonic, immobilized when faced with such a dramatically different reality than their Normalcy Bias had deluded them would ALWAYS be their lot in life?
.
How does one insure that Normalcy Bias is not deluding them into a false sense of security and safety?
.
How does one avoid a false negative and a false positive in such considerations?
.
How does one avoid paranoia yet be situationally aware in a 'good reality testing' rational sort of way?
.
What part does deliberate media lobotomization play in deluding folks through Normalcy Bias?
.
Where's the prudent balance in all this?
.
I don't have a list of definitive answers to the above questions. I would like to dialogue about them.
.
Here's another article on the topic:
.
Normalcy Bias: It's All In Your Head
.
thesurvivalmom.com...
.
Here's a couple of earlier ATS threads on the topic:
.
Is normalcy bias the norm? If so, why?
.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
.
How serious is the Normalcy Bias in the United States?
.
www.abovetopsecret.com...
.

It's an open-ended proposition, that things will "go bad". One could always theorize"what ifs", even under the best circumstances.

The fact is, 95% of people are dependent on "the system", and could offer little hope in the worst-case scenario of apocalypse anyway. So, what is the point?

An easy counterpoint is that some people are paranoid, or have a simple negativity complex, or that they simply refuse to live in the moment.

imo, it's a false economy to spend your days in preparation for a time which may not come. Do you want people to sacrifice the relatively good present for a slightly better apocalypse?

a reply to: FlyingFox
.
I fiercely disagree with the "may not come" issue.
.
Massive numbers of puzzle pieces have been increasingly moved into place--particularly the last 60 years.
.
They have become more and more brazenly obvious in recent years.
.
When the number of secular experts predicting such begin to outnumber the Christ prophetic folks predicting such, that is NOT a sign that such events "may not come."
.

a reply to: BO XIAN

You've just strengthened his argument by mentioning puzzle pieces falling into place.

So someone who picked this up early, 60 years ago, has wasted their entire life waiting and prepping for something that never came...

What a waste.

a reply to: Chadwickus

A waste?
Have you seen that stash of canned goods?
Enough Spam to last...for a long time!

I find that in real life, experience outweighs theory....every time. This is a good example.

My H&SS background makes me a skeptic, and I see various disciplines being practiced often in theory, and always looking for supporting "evidence", rather than relying on personal experience and observation. These often experience a "confirmation bias", where essentially....the sky is always falling (for them).

Can it be framed simply as a parable, like a glass being half full verses half empty? How about what Plato tells us, "the highest good lies in the mean". maybe the best position is to be prepared to a degree, not "have all your eggs in one basket", but also to not let such a side endevour harm, ruin or control your life.

If anything, compared to the Great Depression, my parents generation, economics and things like food supply and commodities are way better and more reliable. You need to get out more, away from the PC.

asq.sagepub.com...

a reply to: Chadwickus

That's not my perspective.

For one--one learns to refine their prepping and get better at it.

Two, when one sees calamity on the horizon--regardless of how near or far--WISDOM decrees prepping is the most sensible option.

a reply to: FlyingFox

Stay tuned.

You will recall this thread and my comments.

And your feelings at that time will be decidedly different.