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NEWS: NIC Prediction: India, China will be economic giants: Warns of Orwellian Society

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posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 07:39 AM
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The vision of 2020 as predicted by the National Intelligence Council has China and India competing with the United States for economic dominance. Osama Bin Laden's Al-Qaeda will have withered away and been replaced by smaller factions that are just as deadly. However, 2 warnings are perhaps most ominous: The rise of a new Islamic Caliphate - an international Islamic authority, and a "cycle of fear" which could give rise to a Orwellian like world.
 



story .news.yahoo.com
By the year 2020, China and India will be vying with the United States for global economic supremacy, the nation's top intelligence analysts predict, and al-Qaeda will have withered away - only to be replaced by smaller, more splintered but equally deadly groups of terrorists.

The National Intelligence Council issued its once-every-five-year look at the future of the globe Thursday, contrasting optimism about dramatic global economic growth with concern that the same cyberpathways fueling economic development are also hastening the spread of violent, radical Islam.

"It's going to be a very bumpy ride," council Vice Chairman David Gordon said.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Could this position paper be postulating the emergence of the New World Order? If so how would the rise of Islam play into that? China I see becoming a powerhouse if they can keep their pollution issues in check. Otherwise they may start to slow down because of the dramatic rise in pollution there. India is in the same boat and may be hampered by as many people in China, but one third the space. No doubt as the paper predicts, we are in for a bumpy ride.


[edit on 1/14/05 by FredT]




posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 07:51 AM
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I infact do foresee an islamic super power on the rise. - Iran. And nobody including Unkil Sam can confront them because of the enormous geographic importance of the place. It's next to Iraq, and is vitally important for a stable ME. On top of that, EU Support and Chinese support makes it not an easy target to invade. It could very well be that, Syria will join hands with Iran. All the former CSIR states (Turkmenistan, Kyrzygystan, Uzbekistan, etc) could form an islamic union with Iran ala European Union. Moderate nations like Turkey could join in as well if the EU keeps bumping them off. It will only be a matter of time for Jordan, Eqypt to throw in their weight as well. And it will all be on pretence of their oil economy.

China might, to all intents and purposes, actively promote such alliances and will want and will vye for a NWO. The US might use Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan to solidify their base in Middle East.

The Indian elephant, on the other hand, I only foresee them trudgin ahead as the US's back office. If the US stays on as super power, India will grow along with it, but certainly not overtake them. They could gradually become a superpower with America's and the western world's might behind them (to take on the NWO). But she will not be an overnight superpower by any standards.


[edit on 14-1-2005 by aryaputhra]



posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 08:02 AM
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The BBC is running this too.

Iraq could become a breeding ground for terrorists, with survivors taking their experience to use around the world, a new US intelligence report warns.

Veterans of jihad in Iraq could eventually replace the al-Qaeda hierarchy, the CIA's National Intelligence Council says.



"In countries where weak government, lagging economies, religious extremism and youth bulges come together, they have a potential to create a perfect storm... for internal conflict and potentially for international terrorism," he warned.

BBC

Scary 'forecast'.



posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 09:14 AM
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This report blew me away when I first caught wind of it. I tried to report it but I guess I used a run-on sentence in the intro or something.

The part that caught my attention the most was this: the NIC is flat out telling the American people that they can expect security measures to approach the level of chip implants even while terrorists are able to say they are "hopeful" for their goals. In other words- the war on terror is going to put you and me on lockdown and leave terrorists smiling and free.

On a side note, aryaputhra needs a little instruction in strategy.


Originally posted by aryaputhra
I infact do foresee an islamic super power on the rise. - Iran. And nobody including Unkil Sam can confront them because of the enormous geographic importance of the place.

And you think we're -less- likely to attack them because they occupy a strategically important area? America will be all over Iran like stains on an intern's dress.



It's next to Iraq, and is vitally important for a stable ME. On top of that, EU Support and Chinese support makes it not an easy target to invade.

Most of Europe hasn't been in a fight since Korea. If they were going to cowboy up they would have done it in Iraq. The Chinese are in the same boat really, but not only that. The Chinese aren't going to have anyone to buy their sweat-shop products if they grow a backbone with us prematurely.
Odds are that America can do whatever they want to whoever they want in the middle east until at least 2010, and Iran is pretty high on the list.



It could very well be that, Syria will join hands with Iran. All the former CSIR states (Turkmenistan, Kyrzygystan, Uzbekistan, etc) could form an islamic union with Iran ala European Union.

The CSIR states are MUCH more likely than Syria for this, but a lot depends on religious demographics as long as Iran remains a theocracy. I dont know the demographics of those nations.
IF Iran were to grow their priorities are as follows: 1. Gain territory from Iraq- potentially all the way up to the Tigris River. 2. Expand rights to the Caspian Sea by retaking Azerbaijan and attempting to ally with Turkmenistan. 3. Install a friendly government in Afghanistan and get their natural gas and minerals pumping. 4. If they can not ally with Pakistan then they need to gain international favor and economic advantages over Pakistan so that Bandar-e-Abbas rather than Karachi eventually becomes the end of the natural gas pipeline. If Iran gets that far I'll be very impressed.



Moderate nations like Turkey could join in as well if the EU keeps bumping them off. It will only be a matter of time for Jordan, Eqypt to throw in their weight as well. And it will all be on pretence of their oil economy.

You do realize that Iraq's war on Iran was basically seen as protecting the rest of the Arab world from Iran right? These nations you're throwing around aren't natural allies- they just happen to be under realpolitik when it comes to their interactions with America sometimes.
Turkey is a Nato member and they have issues with Russia. They're also traditional enemies with Iran- the Ottoman Empire was getting ready to go at it with Persia over the same waterway that Iraq and Iran fought over in the 80s, but the outbreak of WWI interrupted. Turkey's interest lies with jockeying on the American side to regain rights to Iraq when we leave, then they could conquer Syria and have the rebirth of their empire. They'll also be happy to cooperate with new NATO members in the Caucuses I'd guess.



China might, to all intents and purposes, actively promote such alliances and will want and will vye for a NWO. The US might use Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan to solidify their base in Middle East.

Where to begin here... the Saudis are our realpolitik friends because of the Iranian threat, and Jordan comes along with them probably. Iraq remains our puppet. Syria isn't too useful to Iran or Russia because they're cut off all by themselves. They'll do what Ba'athists did in the last cold war- play both sides. Afghanistan and Pakistan are virtually worthless if Russia or Iran gets their hands on Turkmenistan, which is one more reason that America will ahve to bust Iran in the very near future.
Frankly if we had to we could just disregard Pakistan as long as we had Iran. We could re-route the pipeline.



The Indian elephant, on the other hand, I only foresee them trudgin ahead as the US's back office. If the US stays on as super power, India will grow along with it, but certainly not overtake them. They could gradually become a superpower with America's and the western world's might behind them (to take on the NWO). But she will not be an overnight superpower by any standards.
[edit on 14-1-2005 by aryaputhra]


India needs to take a side and grow gradually, you're right about that. Their present actions indicate that they may see a role for themselves with Russia, but if America starts looking like a long-term power in Southern Asia that may change. India and China are rivals, so it makes the most sense for India to side with the nation that is also rival to China, not to mention which has influence with Pakistan. All we have to do is show India that we're not gonna pull out and leave them all alone later. We do that by taking Iran and developing Afghanistan.



posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 10:10 AM
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I think china will become a rich technofacist state like Singapore, where everything looks beautifull on the outside , but don't throw your chewinggum on the streets or you will get 30 beatings with a stick It's funny they keep this communist flag draped over their policestate, but i guess it brings some fake ideology in their mere feodalistic rulership...



posted on Jan, 14 2005 @ 10:39 AM
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yah some brainiacs were assuming that the US would intervene in that colombia-venezuela or whatever crap, but look what the colombians do to journalists: here

So why would we invade Venz? I don't know but some geniuses here assumed that, and I disagreed because that would mean we'd be messing with Brazil's oil partner, and Brazil is part of that new BRIC alliance..

See how things are falling together?? One way they might try to gather attention is by staging an alien invasion which they will consider spiritual entities when the Kyoto Protocals end in 2012. My source??

How about the bollywood soft-core porn obsessed mainstream newspaper, India Daily. I mean for example, this was posted today: "Remote viewing and field intelligence help India find connection between Pakistan’s ISI and insurgents like ULFA and Naxals in India" Times are looking interesting, especially in Chinese and Indian papers, they even reported that the Iranians had tried to shoot down a UFO because they thought it was one of our crafts but they couldn't get it, and India's government is open about their contact with aliens.

This should make their UFO research a bit easier

HERE IS THE LINK YOU HAVE TO SEE!!! FROM THE DAY OF THE QUAKE AND TSUNAMI PROBLEM! 2012


OOoO forgot about this and
this


India in 2020 - read this one, it's hilarious

[edit on 14-1-2005 by boombye]

[edit on 14-1-2005 by boombye]



posted on Jan, 17 2005 @ 05:19 AM
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On a side note, aryaputhra needs a little instruction in strategy.


Goodness, you are here as well..


And you think we're -less- likely to attack them because they occupy a strategically important area? America will be all over Iran like stains on an intern's dress.


Well, after Iraq, it will be pretty stupid to drag your own troops through another nightmare both locally and internationally. America,and Bush have learnt their lesson. I don't think they will repeat their fallacy that they can overcome other nations. They struggle with Iraq. And they will do so till they pull out.


Most of Europe hasn't been in a fight since Korea. If they were going to cowboy up they would have done it in Iraq. The Chinese are in the same boat really, but not only that. The Chinese aren't going to have anyone to buy their sweat-shop products if they grow a backbone with us prematurely.
Odds are that America can do whatever they want to whoever they want in the middle east until at least 2010, and Iran is pretty high on the list.


What I meant is political pressure by EU and China on the US - not military defence, you twit. Russia might also jump in the bandwagon too. EU is not as stupid as the US to jump into a war willy nilly. They of course are much more civilized people. China as always is looking for a reason to bunk the US.

Again, the US might go it alone again. Your forecast of living upto 2010, both with Iraq and Iran seem to be highly overrated. Troop morale is already low in Iraq. One thing you americans have to realise is that the whole of the middle east are born warriors, historically they are known to live, breathe and sleep fighting. The "Hashashim" of ancient Jordan, "from where the word "Assasin" eminates from,prove their mettle. Most persians will fight till the last man standing. Ask Hamas, ask the al-aqsa martyrs brigade, ask al-qaeda. True, they are evil in them, but my emphasis is your government should not expect any subjugation or relief anytime soon. Whereas your government believes in the triumph of the will, they are thinking a vicious cycle with no end.


The CSIR states are MUCH more likely than Syria for this, but a lot depends on religious demographics as long as Iran remains a theocracy. I dont know the demographics of those nations.

IF Iran were to grow their priorities are as follows: 1. Gain territory from Iraq- potentially all the way up to the Tigris River. 2. Expand rights to the Caspian Sea by retaking Azerbaijan and attempting to ally with Turkmenistan. 3. Install a friendly government in Afghanistan and get their natural gas and minerals pumping. 4. If they can not ally with Pakistan then they need to gain international favor and economic advantages over Pakistan so that Bandar-e-Abbas rather than Karachi eventually becomes the end of the natural gas pipeline. If Iran gets that far I'll be very impressed.


Syria though arab in nature, are not that religious. They have a socialist ba'ath party (cousin to Saddam's Iraqi B'aath party) They have a man from an Alawite sect instead of a sunni muslim as their leader. His father, Hafez al-assad was a brilliant strategist. So will his descendants. They will jump at the opportunity for a bigger union that can threaten Israel, particularly. and by proxy, the US. Iran though signing a MoU with India, has increasingly coyed up with Pakistan. They are only weary of Pakistan because of its siding with the US.



You do realize that Iraq's war on Iran was basically seen as protecting the rest of the Arab world from Iran right? These nations you're throwing around aren't natural allies- they just happen to be under realpolitik when it comes to their interactions with America sometimes.
Turkey is a Nato member and they have issues with Russia. They're also traditional enemies with Iran- the Ottoman Empire was getting ready to go at it with Persia over the same waterway that Iraq and Iran fought over in the 80s, but the outbreak of WWI interrupted. Turkey's interest lies with jockeying on the American side to regain rights to Iraq when we leave, then they could conquer Syria and have the rebirth of their empire. They'll also be happy to cooperate with new NATO members in the Caucuses I'd guess.


This is where you are wrong. It just goes to prove how much history you really ought to learn. Iran's war with Iraq was mainly a war with Saddam Hussein. He was a xenophobic rascist with grand ambitions as the next leader of the arab people. He might have had followers in Iraq, but at the same token he also had enemies, lots of them too and that too Arabs. Iran now might not be a "natural ally" in terms of the western concept of allies (ala WASPs united, White Anglo Saxon Countries of UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the US). In the ME, natural allies is a 'foreign' concept. If you talk to UAE, they will say they hate the Saudis. Speak to a Saudi they will say they hate the Jordanians. Speak to the Jordanian they will say they hate the Palestinians (so many of refugees in their land). Speak to Kuwaiti they will ridicule the Iraqi. Speak to the Iraqi they will hate the Iranians. And so on and so on, the list is endless, Yemenites. Omanis etc.

But should there be a 'foreign' invasion of their land, be it by Shephardic Jews or Americans they will unite and protest. Btw, Hamas, have their base in IRAN. They are fighting for their semitic arab brethren whilst Iranians themselves are not arabs. You will even get Chechens (europeans) in on the act (ala Al-Qaeda, Lakshar-e-toiba in Kashmir). There are Sudanese Africans fighting the US forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 911 saw Moroccans and Egyptians as well with Saudis.

It's a pity americans don't learn from history - otherwise they would have known what happened during the crusades. The stories of Sala-u-ddin (Saladin) and the Moors, Turks, Genkhis Khan even is foreign to the american CIA.


Where to begin here... the Saudis are our realpolitik friends because of the Iranian threat, and Jordan comes along with them probably. Iraq remains our puppet. Syria isn't too useful to Iran or Russia because they're cut off all by themselves. They'll do what Ba'athists did in the last cold war- play both sides. Afghanistan and Pakistan are virtually worthless if Russia or Iran gets their hands on Turkmenistan, which is one more reason that America will ahve to bust Iran in the very near future.
Frankly if we had to we could just disregard Pakistan as long as we had Iran. We could re-route the pipeline.


Iran is still untouchable for the above said reasons, if the CIA is intelligent to convey the americans on any misadventure.
Iraq is not yet a puppet. If it is, it is one that is still biting the master's hands.
Syria can influence a lot in the ME. Militarilly they might not be powerful enough.
CSIR states can unite if they think about this. And should unite to avoid American hegemony and supremacy.
Jordan might be the last to unite, for it's leader is half-white, and does not see WASPs as the enemy (hey, don't get angry, I'm just saying that's the way they think).


India needs to take a side and grow gradually, you're right about that. Their present actions indicate that they may see a role for themselves with Russia, but if America starts looking like a long-term power in Southern Asia that may change. India and China are rivals, so it makes the most sense for India to side with the nation that is also rival to China, not to mention which has influence with Pakistan. All we have to do is show India that we're not gonna pull out and leave them all alone later. We do that by taking Iran and developing Afghanistan.


I reserve my comments about India. In fact I take back what I said in my previous post. India could join forces with China and Russia.

[edit on 17-1-2005 by aryaputhra]



posted on Jan, 21 2005 @ 03:38 PM
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My opinion is that China will cause a lot of trouble for North America, although in the short-term Canada will benefit. For example, since the industrial boom in China, they are cryin for natural resources. Canada is negotiating a deal with China that China initiated regarding buying 1 million barrels of oil per day. Not sure what will happened there, but right now Canada sells about that much to the US per day. Of course, if China outbids the US, well, money talks. But who cares, since the US has oil in Iraq now - all part of the plan. In an over-populated future, natural resources will be currency and Canada and Russia has some of the most in the world.

But after the short-term, of course most of us I am sure don't see much settling down in the bustling part of Earth known as Iraq. As for China, they are scarey, due to their shear numbers and geography. How are we not going to have trouble from China? They are already talking about putting duties on exports. Perhaps they are sick of feeding North America with slave labor. And who will stop the duties and wage adjustments? China is scarrrrey. The other Arab countries I feel are not so much a threat in terms of war but rather in terms of international econmonics, like buying power.

The nation that is going to have to worry is sadly the US, since they have acquired so many enemies on an international scale. Who actuall likes them? Ok, rhetorical question, of course some do, and I don't mind them, but on a political scale, they are shadey at best now.



posted on Jan, 22 2005 @ 04:51 PM
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India won't go anywhere simply because the culture and the level of corruption are incompatible with progress and economic development.

China could go far, however SARS-II may strike soon and this time it will be bad for the whole Chinese race. So I would say that there are good potentials but unfortunately Asian economies will never become a complete treat, as they will be promptly stopped.



posted on Jan, 22 2005 @ 05:00 PM
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Originally posted by WisdomMaster
China could go far, however SARS-II may strike soon


Very, very true. China and India are overpopulated, and have a low standard of living. It's just a matter of time before there is a massive epidemic, similar to the Plague, in these two countries.



posted on Jan, 22 2005 @ 09:10 PM
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This is exactly what the US neocons are trying to avoid.
They know China and India are getting economically stronger and the US gets weaker.This means there economic, geopolitical and militairy might will diminish.
That is exactly why they are in the Middle-east,>>>>>>>Oil



posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 11:30 AM
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I would rather think that turkemistan, kazachistan and other countries of which a large percentage is turkish will form a turkish union.



posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 11:44 AM
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I would rather think that turkemistan, kazachistan and other countries of which a large percentage is turkish will form a turkish union.



posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 12:41 PM
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Originally posted by FredT
China I see becoming a powerhouse if they can keep their pollution issues in check.


Fred i was wondering, have you heard any reports concerning the dumping of scrap computer parts from the U.S and E.U in China? I couldnt find anything @ ATS with Boolean Search. Apparently China are just piling up the waste in huge scrap yards and burning it after poorly paid workers strip whatever precious copper wire they can from the parts that contain it.

I saw a documentory type programme which was on for roughly half an hour on BBC 2 where a crew went out to some of these scrap yards and filmed what was happening there. Seemingly endless piles of scrap computer parts were all smouldering with an eery glow, releasing thick toxic smoke into the air. The reporter sifted through a pile that wasnt burning and checked some of the serial number stickers on random parts to see where it stated they were made, everything he picked up originated from either a European country or America.

The reporter interviewed the workers who were sitting on the floor in a makeshift shed stripping the expensive copper wire from scrap parts, they werent even wearing masks to protect them from the toxic fumes which were evidently blowing all over the site. They all complained of bad health problems.

Are we all paying China to dispose of our problematic waste in thier country and then point our finger in disgust at the brown cloud over the region? If we are then we are part of their pullution problem. Links: Washington Post, BBC News.



posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 05:17 PM
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Originally posted by MERC

Originally posted by FredT
China I see becoming a powerhouse if they can keep their pollution issues in check.


Fred i was wondering, have you heard any reports concerning the dumping of scrap computer parts from the U.S and E.U in China? I couldnt find anything @ ATS with Boolean Search. Apparently China are just piling up the waste in huge scrap yards and burning it after poorly paid workers strip whatever precious copper wire they can from the parts that contain it.


Yes, I saw the same reports in Chinese newspaper too. China has lots problem regarding population, pollution,corruption ...etc However, I think you guys also need to consider that is the pathway to making prograss. Why? Because China and its tech-driven elite leaders know these problems, thus these problem are exposed everyday in China instead of being buried like years ago. The biggest threat is that you have problem but you don't know the problem. Thus, I dont worry about these things and I believe the Chinese can overcome these problems. Think about in 1960s the pollution in southern California or in Pittsberg. Now we see USA has overcome this pollution problem basically. And many people were yelling America would die in pollution at that time too.

Another issue I want to point out is that, many new leaders (from central government to local officials) studied in western countries, that trend will become even clearer in few years--the majority of the local officials would be those who hold PhD degree from western countries. These people have much long term goal compared to shortterm economic goals in last 20 years. That is reason China put lots effort to improve the technology part. And it is very 'scary' if you know 30% of current PhD students in the universities of America are Chinese. I remembered that I attended the biggest annual international conference in bioIT industry last year, more than 50% of the attendees were young Chinese scholars (I swear to god, I myself was so astonished cause I almost did not speak English at all when I communicate with others in the 4 days ). They are basically around 30 years old. Now think about in 10 years, what it woud be like.
Lots people might start to bash me that few Chinese won Nobel Prize in last one 100 years. But you have to know, China were all the way much better overall in two thousands years before 1700 A.D in economy or science. And China came back to the stage only in 20 years. Besides, the review of Nobel Prize take 10 years or even longer, I would guess 15-20 years later, there would be boom of Chinese Nobel Prize winners in all aspects of science. Especially, I want to mention the biology part, the very "unfriendly" research environment in America (represented by stem cell research) has made lots tech center shift to Asia. And, semiconductor industry, shifting to China undoubtly these days.

However, development of technology and science has made human race cannot stand up a chance to shift the global power by violence. America need to think about how to deal with the reviving of China instead of "pressing" China. If American are "scared' of the new power and try to use all the ways to stop it, it will generate dramatical negative effect on China-------Remember China suffered lots pain in last 200 years because of the invasion of western countries and Japan------That will force China develop into nationalism country. With huge tech and economy, a nationalism country can definityly bury itself together with others. Everytime the confict generated between China and US, the China government has to do lots to 'save face' and same time to hold the angry from people. Remember this, I forget who said that, but it is absolutely true "If you want an aweful enemy, you absolutely can find one and will have one"

I just wish terrorist will not attack USA again to drive American totally become crazy to fight the whole world. Otherwise, before enough power from other countries such as China, India or EU can stop the craziness of redneck American, US government plus right wing extremists can really put human race in danger.

The co-exist of multiple powers in fact is the most stable situation for the world. So, let's hope China, India and Russia and EU, together with USA, all peacefully develop the world----------starting from inventing new energy resource.



[edit on 23-1-2005 by proteinx]

[edit on 23-1-2005 by proteinx]



posted on Jan, 23 2005 @ 05:57 PM
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Would this also be connected to or related to the CIA's predictions?

Its interesting that the CIA predicted the very same thing, as well as, predicting the dissolving of the EU and NATO.
C.I.A. Prediction: EU and NATO to Dissolve In 2020.




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