Cruz to run 3rd Party?

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: MrSpad
I think Cruz is far more likely to just let Trump lose big and then rush in after to save the Republican Party. Although Romney, the Bush's, Paul Ryan, Dole, and many other GOP leaders are saying they will not support Trump so may be thinking the same thing as Cruz.

Romney has solid GOP support and had more support among independents and still lost against Obama. Trump is doing much worse among Republicans and Independents. With out full GOP backing he likely to lose some traditional Red States where he is not polling well. And when he is already polling behind in all but, one battle ground state he can not afford to fighting for Red States that should be sure thing.

There might be a positive effect for Trump though if the perceived establishment fail to back him. I really think that the election will be decided by the independents and more moderate democrats/republicans.

In current polls there are a few inconsistencies - for example in the last CNN poll Clinton was up 54-41... but the percentages are for those that said they will vote for a candidate PLUS those who lean to a candidate (the question structure was such that if someone said they would vote for neither, a follow up question was asked for 'who do you lean towards'). The detail of who actually said Clinton or Trump was not given. It's why it is so different in result than the Rasmussen poll which kept those that said 'neither' as a separate count.

Polling has consistently been correct this entire election cycle. So their is no reason to think that has changed. Trump can not leave it up to independents because as poorly as Clinton scores with them he does even worse. To win a Republican (because of the numbers in each party) needs full GOP support, the majority of indies and to steal a decent number of Democrats. Trump has none of that going for him. And when you start doing that electoral math, it becomes real hard to find a path to victory. In fact it becomes hard to find a path where it is not a disaster.

6 months out the polling was not very accurate for the primaries. 2-4 weeks out the numbers firm up. For the GOP, I think Carson was leading nationally 6 months ago, then dropped away and eventually left the race.
That said, it's not that that Rasmussen OR CNN polls are wrong, it's just they are using different methods. One lumping together voting intent + leaning, the other only counting voting intent.

Polls pop here and there Carson lead for one, Cruz for one but, they had Trump leading most of the time over the others. For the general election the big question is always the undecideds. Polling shows this current result but, with so many undecideds or people who feel neutral about the candidates you could see a change in those numbers. This election that is not the case. People know the candidates and already have strong feelings about them. It is hard to find an undecided voter. So the election will likely mirror the same results at the national level we have seen from the start. It is much easier to win over and undecided voter than it is to change people minds. People have a strong opinions about Trump and Clinton. Changing those opinions is nearly impossible.

If Clinton was facing a relative unknown GOP candidate like Kasich she would be in real trouble because, their are many people who have no opinion of him yet. While she has opinions for and against her already set. Clinton's numbers are not good and against an average candidate she would have a hard time even with electoral math working in her favor. Lucky for Clinton she is facing somebody even more polarizing than she is. Trumps numbers make Clintons look ok.

This more than ever is going to an election of voting against somebody instead of voting for somebody. And people literally fear for the nation with Trump as president.

a reply to: olaru12

Have you been watching the neocons gathering together to kick Trump to the curb?

Speaker Paul D. Ryan, the nation’s highest-ranking elected Republican, said Thursday that he was “not ready” to endorse Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

They just raised the drawbridge

a reply to: Spiramirabilis

Of course Ryan would not agree with Trump. Many of the things Ryan has been proposing and fighting for are the same things that Trump is against.

This is just more evidence that Trump is indeed not establishment.

However, Preibus said that Trump and Ryan are going to have a meeting next week to see if they can come to an understanding. Ryan has said he wants to get to the point of supporting Trump, but this presumptive nomination came up sooner than expected so they have not had time to work on things.

Some say that the Republicans are going to try to use this endorsement to get Trump under their thumb. I saw a good comment on the news about that. It's like Trump is the shark, and the elite are the fishermen in the boat. The fishermen think they are hunting the shark, but the shark has other plans.

a reply to: UKTruth

a reply to: BlueAjah

However, Preibus said that Trump and Ryan are going to have a meeting next week to see if they can come to an understanding.

Was that before - or after Ryan's announcement? :-)

If you have a link that timelines it - I'd love to read it

The Speaker of the House just said he won't be supporting the GOP nominee

This is nothing but interesting - it's going to be real fun watching your boy Trump get this nomination for real. This is not going down easy

a reply to: Spiramirabilis

Which part?
That Ryan is not ready yet, but wants to get there?

Ryan, asked Thursday if he’d back Trump, said: “I'm just not ready to do that at this point.”

Speaking on CNN, Ryan suggested he wants Trump to do more to unify the party first and confirmed he is not endorsing the candidate right now.

At the same time, Ryan called Trump the presumptive nominee, saying, “I hope to” support him and “want to.”

Or that Trump does not support Ryan's agenda, but wants to work it out with him?

Trump quickly fired back in a statement, saying "I am not ready to support Speaker Ryan's agenda."

"Perhaps in the future we can work together and come to an agreement about what is best for the American people. They have been treated so badly for so long that it is about time for politicians to put them first!" Trump said.

www.foxnews.com...

a reply to: BlueAjah

Sorry - edited my post too late - the part about the meeting - I just read that Priebus said that before Ryan made his comment. But it doesn't much matter

Since this thread is about Cruz - I guess we're pretty far off topic :-)

a reply to: Spiramirabilis

Or maybe this one?

Ryan said he hopes to eventually back Trump and "to be a part of this unifying process." The first moves, though, must come from Trump, he said.
Ryan said he wants Trump to unify "all wings of the Republican Party and the conservative movement" and then run a campaign that will allow Americans to "have something that they're proud to support and proud to be a part of."

www.cnn.com...

Oh, by the way. An official of the Republican party was just on TV and said the NY Times totally lied in their article. He said it very vehemently.

and oops ... this thread is about Cruz. We better not derail any more.

a reply to: BlueAjah

He said it very vehemently.

I'm sure he did

:-)

Night then

originally posted by: Spiramirabilis
a reply to: olaru12

Have you been watching the neocons gathering together to kick Trump to the curb?

Speaker Paul D. Ryan, the nation’s highest-ranking elected Republican, said Thursday that he was “not ready” to endorse Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee.

They just raised the drawbridge

Only the castle owner can raise the drawbridge. That's Trump.
Ryan is deciding whether he wants to join the help and enter the castle.

a reply to: UKTruth

:-)

I can see that you think Trump is king. Yippee - more delusion

Maybe you don't understand what's happening? I'm not talking smack. I'm no fan of Ryan - or our current congress

I'm still happy to hear that Ryan isn't going to roll over, bend his knee and kiss the ring of a fascist pig

This convention is really going to be something

a reply to: UKTruth

It's plausible, and it would be great to see too.
I've lost count of the number of posts I've written here predicting that the Republican party will split, and we're seeing that happen. It's dividing between the fiscally conservative and the evangelicals, the rebels and the fanatics, the centre-right and the far-right.

This is inevitable, because the two groups no longer agree on anything and are increasingly refusing to follow the party line. This split would be the right thing to do, and it is inevitable, but it would lead to a Democrat win and that's pretty much the only thing holding it back.

Either way, the Republican party is doomed to fail until it cleans house, it can put that off for a while, but it's going to be worse for the party the longer they delay the inevitable.

originally posted by: Rocker2013
a reply to: UKTruth

It's plausible, and it would be great to see too.
I've lost count of the number of posts I've written here predicting that the Republican party will split, and we're seeing that happen. It's dividing between the fiscally conservative and the evangelicals, the rebels and the fanatics, the centre-right and the far-right.

This is inevitable, because the two groups no longer agree on anything and are increasingly refusing to follow the party line. This split would be the right thing to do, and it is inevitable, but it would lead to a Democrat win and that's pretty much the only thing holding it back.

Either way, the Republican party is doomed to fail until it cleans house, it can put that off for a while, but it's going to be worse for the party the longer they delay the inevitable.

I see it differently.

I think the establishment stalwarts are incredibly butt hurt that an outsider has won the nomination and it's nothing more than ego that is driving the split. The old guard can't handle it and the younger 'rising stars' (i.e. establishment hand picked) candidates see their path blocked unless they actually earn their progress. I don't think principles or ideology have much to do with it - after all with a House and Senate Republican majority the country has only been moving further left.

I think Cruz is slightly different - he's a 3rd branch on his own. I believe he cares first and foremost about himself (I actually believe he thinks he's anointed by God). He's a man who talks about principles a lot, but is happy to ignore them when it furthers his aim.

originally posted by: Spiramirabilis
a reply to: UKTruth

:-)

I can see that you think Trump is king. Yippee - more delusion

Maybe you don't understand what's happening? I'm not talking smack. I'm no fan of Ryan - or our current congress

I'm still happy to hear that Ryan isn't going to roll over, bend his knee and kiss the ring of a fascist pig

This convention is really going to be something

No, you used the draw bridge analogy.
I am just pointing out that Trump is the leader of the party now, not Paul Ryan or any of the old guard. The people have spoken, it's deluded to think that Paul Ryan has any power to 'pull up the draw bridge'. He can throw rocks at the castle from the outside.

You are right it's going to be a crazy convention - I think Trump has started planning the event.

a reply to: UKTruth

I am just pointing out that Trump is the leader of the party now, not Paul Ryan or any of the old guard. The people have spoken,

God! :-)

I am about to bust a gut here

Take a good look at Trump - he's not doing so well. Physically. You know why?

Trump has advisors now - trainers. They're trying to teach a one trick pony new tricks. He's out of his depth. They're fitting him with his very own Dick Cheney as we speak... he is not used to politics. But, what's he going to do now? He is only where he is now because of delusion

:-)

He might just make it to the White House - we shall see. The people have spoken...Ha!

ETA - because we're off topic - I think it's hilarious than in a thread about Ted Cruz - Ted Cruz can't hold our attention for even a few posts

I have to be happy for small things now

a reply to: UKTruth

You are right it's going to be a crazy convention - I think Trump has started planning the event.

If Trump even physically makes it to the convention...He really looks sick and tired...peaked to early...he needs to start planning his concession speech to some neocon selected candidate from the belt way.

Who are the neocons you ask...I'll tell ya...the CIA, NSA and all the other spooky groups that have no name plus the military and their support. They have made long range plans for the world and Donald isn't part of the equation. He is to much of a braggart, loudmouth to be the spokes person for that cabal. Do you honestly think elections and the "will of the people" matters to such a collection of blackgards?

I would like to see Trump break away from the GOP and start a party that actually represents the "people" but he has made his bed and now has to sleep in it.

His other options are to bend over and take it
Lose to the dembs.
Have a stroke and retire...

I know, not very attractive choices to his loyal supporters but ....

Politics isn't a game of checkers to be played with the likes of goober and aunt bea in Barney town;
It's a cruel money trench where pimps and junkies run free and good men die like dogs; there's also a negative side.

TY...HST

But thanks amigo...you add the other voice to the debate and make it enjoyable!!