originally posted by: smurfy
When the expected didn't happen, and some were shivering, while others were having a dip...a mad scramble for alternative scenarios and guess what?
Oh yes, some of us will be toasty, and some of us will be wearing mufflers.
It's called weather. In fact here's an old proverb :
It's the exception that proves the rule.
What this means is that if something was 100% then it's more than likely false. Nothing is 100%. If something is very high, like 96% (climate change
due to humans as investigated by climate scientists) then the missing 4% is proof of a lack of cover up NOT proof that the 96% are wrong.
1. The world is warming as is evident not by thermometers or satellite measurements
but by the natural world, hence why geologists, biologists,
botanists etc also agree that warming is occuring.
2. The heat must be coming from somewhere but since the sun is orders of magnitude larger than any other source then the sun must be the source of the
heat but why warmer?
3. If the sun was getting warmer then , given the rate of change, we would be black charcoal cinders in a couple of decades. This has not happened,
the measurements of the sun show this is not happening. So where has the extra solar heat come from? There is only one conclusion : the earth is not
radiating away the heat that it used to. Hmm interesting can we confirm this?
4. The stratosphere is cooling. Now this is where the deniers lose the ability to understand. The stratosphere maintains a thermal profile due to heat
passing through it IN TWO DIRECTIONS
The amount of heat coming inwards (from the sun) is the same. The amount radiating outwards back into
space is falling. Hmm why is this ?
5. Quite simply it must be trapped and thus the amount of heat absorbed by the earth increasing. But why is it being trapped ? Something must have
changed. Let's look at history, ice cores are good.
6. The ice cores show a relationship between the amount of CO2 and temperature so I wonder is the CO2 in the atmosphere increasing? So it is why ?
7. Let's find out the source of the CO2. Now this is actually easy although the math is tricky. We know that Carbon has isotopes and living matter
absorbs carbon in a known ratio. It's the cycle of Nitrogen
(yes Nitrogen NOT carbon) into the upper atmosphere being irradiated by the sun
creating Carbon isotopes. Once an organism dies the radioactive isotopes decay and by comparing the ratio we can tell how old something is. Oil was
once organic but is so old that there is no radioactive isotopes left. So by looking at the ratio of radioactive isotopes in the CO2 we can determine
how much came from burning fossil fuels, BINGO - the increased CO2 is due to fossil fuel burning. But hang on back to step 6 the chart shows CO2
leading temperature whereas we currently have a lag.
8. Past CO2 correlations are due to CO2 being a feedback. The trigger was "something", the CO2 changed and then the temperature increase followed. A
lead effect occurs when CO2 IS
the trigger AND
the feedback. So yet again we humans have triggered the increase.......god help us when
the CO2 feedback kicks in.....or even worse a bigger feedback like methane....