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CNBC: Don't count out Trump presidency, political analyst says

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posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:39 AM
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Hillary Clinton is expected to win the presidency, but nobody should count out Donald Trump, who has exceeded expectations in every leg of the race so far, says political analyst Greg Valliere.

Valliere, chief strategist at Horizon Investments, said Trump has about a 1-in-3 chance of winning.

"It's not zero. There's a chance," said Valliere, "He's exceeded expectations and broken every rule."

Sports betting site Paddy Power currently offers 1-3 odds on Clinton becoming the next U.S. president and 2-1 on Trump.
Don't count out Trump presidency, political analyst says


Here's what I don't understand about the "Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in" argument:

Almost everyone here agrees that no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton.

Almost everyone here agrees that Trump has little or no chance of beating Hillary Clinton.

Isn't that classic doublethink?

The article above mentions the betting odds that currently give Trump a 33% chance to win. PredictIt is currently giving Trump a 40% chance to win:

www.predictit.org...

Anyone remember Deez Nuts?

Trump's latest comments about Cruz's father in addition to some of his other comments have me wondering if Trump actually is Deez Nuts, for real.

My question is...who could choose Hillary Clinton for president over Deez Nuts?
edit on 4-5-2016 by Profusion because: (no reason given)




posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:43 AM
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Almost everyone here agrees that no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton.


We are the minority. Most people that vote for Hillary get all their news from one source. You know, the same source that funds the Hillary campaign.
edit on 4-5-2016 by amicktd because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:44 AM
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I saw an interview with Carl Bernstein who said that he has spoken to Hillary's staff and they are very worried about running against trump. They wanted to run against Cruz.

I still think there might be some surprise in the Democratic race.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:48 AM
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a reply to: Profusion



Almost everyone here agrees that no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton.


I disagree. Plenty of intelligent people will vote for Hillary. The problem is that many Hillary supporters are not as in to politics as the rest of us are...so we don't hear much from them.



Almost everyone here agrees that Trump has little or no chance of beating Hillary Clinton. Isn't that classic doublethink?


Not if you don't believe that no one supports Clinton.



My question is...who could choose Hillary Clinton for president over Deez Nuts?


I'd take Hillary. She at least knows what she is doing.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:48 AM
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a reply to: Profusion

Trump's price on predictit.com is already up to 42c. It's gone from 33-42 in the last week.
Clinton went from 67-61 over the same period.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:51 AM
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Long way till November.

Look at the Trump vs. Hillary trends....constantly ebb and flow... I expect no less all the way until November.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:51 AM
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a reply to: amicktd

Agreed. Never underestimate the will of the Sheeple. Personally, I think this election is still Hillary's to lose. That said, I strongly expect her to lose it some way. The Republican primary road is now littered with 16 candidates that from the beginning appeared to have a better chance at winning than Trump. He continues to overcome low expectations and gain support. I still will be voting Libertarian myself, but I am beginning to believe Trump can actually win, which I never believed before now.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 08:54 AM
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a reply to: Profusion




Here's what I don't understand about the "Hillary Clinton is a shoe in" argument:

Almost everyone here agrees that no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton.

Almost everyone here agrees that Trump has little or no chance of beating Hillary Clinton.

Isn't that classic doublethink?


No, it is the same as most elections where people dislike both candidates they vote for who they dislike the least. And the largest voting block of the electorate are the independents.

People have a tendency to vote against the other guy and this time around Trump has the highest disapproval rating of the two.




The article above mentions the betting odds that currently give Trump a 33% chance to win. PredictIt is currently giving Trump a 40% chance to win:


1 in 3 is not the same as 40% and when rounding numbers anything below 5 is rounded down so it would be 30%.


edit on 4-5-2016 by Grimpachi because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 09:02 AM
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Trump is going to destroy Hillary. He will absolutely make a fool of her in the debates. She won't be able to play the woman card, the race card, and he won't be afraid to point out her weaknesses for all to see in plain English.

I think Trump can come off as a buffoon, but in some ways people are sick of the political double speak. They want a take charge leader in the white house who isn't a afraid to say what people are actually thinking. This is why Trump has appeal.

Trump has an alpha male appeal. People are tired of these milk toast political eggheads. They want someone who stands up for America First.

A lot of Trumps support comes from blue collar Democrats who have all but been abandoned by liberals.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 09:02 AM
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originally posted by: Slave2theTruth
a reply to: amicktd

Agreed. Never underestimate the will of the Sheeple. Personally, I think this election is still Hillary's to lose. That said, I strongly expect her to lose it some way. The Republican primary road is now littered with 16 candidates that from the beginning appeared to have a better chance at winning than Trump. He continues to overcome low expectations and gain support. I still will be voting Libertarian myself, but I am beginning to believe Trump can actually win, which I never believed before now.


My ex-wife voted for Hillary yesterday here in the Indiana primary. I asked her to name more than 4 candidates that ran for office. She was only able to name 3. Trump, Hillary, and Bernie.
edit on 4-5-2016 by amicktd because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 09:03 AM
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originally posted by: Profusion
Almost everyone here agrees that no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton.

Almost everyone here agrees that Trump has little or no chance of beating Hillary Clinton.


I learned a LONG time ago that ATS (especially the conspiracy believers among us) is NOT representative of the public at large. The most vocal and conservative members here may agree that 'no one in their right mind would vote for Hillary Clinton', but there are MANY who WILL vote for her.

Does Trump have a chance? Sure he does! Last summer, I was saying he wouldn't last till November of that year, but I was so wrong! There's not much that Donald could do that would surprise me. He could EASILY beat Hillary if he hit on the right message.

I'm just watching the show, now...



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 09:08 AM
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a reply to: amicktd

Well then let me congratulate you on the "ex" in front of the word "wife"



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 09:10 AM
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a reply to: Slave2theTruth

For the record, my "ex" will also be voting for Hillary, but it is because it is who her parents are telling her to vote for.

[If you think there is an underlying connection in that statement with why she is now my "ex", you are absolutely correct.]



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 10:50 AM
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Headline built on the biased premise that Crooked Hillary should probably win. She won't.
She the old school liberal establishment dinosaur...and Trump is the asteroid.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 10:56 AM
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a reply to: IAMTAT



Headline built on the biased premise that Crooked Hillary should probably win. She won't.


She is ahead in all of the polls, except for the Rasmussen poll, which is s Right-leaning poll. She very well could be the next president.

So saying she won't be the next president is your political desire, not based on any actual poll or other evidence.

Wishful thinking does not elect people.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 10:58 AM
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a reply to: Profusion

I don't like Clinton, but I will vote for her in a HEARTBEAT over Donald Trump.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 11:06 AM
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"Hillary Clinton is expected to win the presidency, but nobody should count out Donald Trump"

If two people (or teams) are competing 6 months from now, why would you count one of them out now?

Someone got paid to say/write this? Either candidate might win, we'll have to see how it turns out after the votes are counted...

"The Giants will play the Jets next season, and I wouldn't count either team out when that match up occurs..." There, I'm now a sports analyst.

Political Analyst Greg Valliere, what you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this thread is now dumber for having read it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

The stupid, it burns.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 11:08 AM
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Kasich is out now too.

Hillary still hasn't put Bernie away!

How do people think she can possibly win the potus?



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 11:08 AM
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So says the Communist News for Big Communists



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 11:08 AM
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a reply to: introvert

You are correct. Clinton is leading, but you have to admit that most of the Republican field of 17 candidates were ahead of Donald Trump at some point and somehow (which I still don't quite understand), he overtook them all and it now looks like he will outright win the nomination without contest (which I did not expect).

If I were Clinton's campaign manager, I would not be excited to face Trump at all. Over and over again, he has defied conventional wisdom. How many times has Trump made a statement that would have sunk any other candidate only to find his support grow? How many candidates went after him only to find their own campaign suffered as a result?

I'd also cite the "enthusiasm gap". I don't think anybody can argue that Clinton's supporters are more enthusiastic than Trump's supporters. That is a difficult force to measure the impact of, but I do believe that it does have an impact in the general election in terms of turnout.




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