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Why trust these odds?
Studies find that political prediction (betting) markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls. Some reasons:
- Bettors take into account important factors besides polls.
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are.
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The "wisdom of crowds".
Is there enough trading on Betfair to give reliable odds?
So far, over $2 million has been bet on Betfair on the races covered here on ElectionBettingOdds.com.
In 2012, Betfair traders predicted the election outcome and called it with more certainty than Intrade.com.
How precise are these odds?
The average bid-ask spread is roughly 1%, meaning that a difference of less then 1% should generally not be viewed as significant. The markets are not always very deep, either; I would suggest assuming a "margin of error" of 3 or 4% (similar to the margin of error of polls, but the odds are still much more indicative of who will win compared to just looking at a poll.)
Clinton has a huge lead. 71% to Trump's 24%. Damn...
originally posted by: UKTruth
These odds are massively in favour of Trump in INdiana.... I just don't think it is so cut and dried. RCP only has the race in a single digit lead for Trump.
Things can happen fast even in the last day.
I also think Nebraska will go to Cruz, but Trump is the favorite in the betting links you provided.
originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
I have always said look at what the bookmakers are suggesting when it comes to elections, as they are rarely wrong.
But look at the odds they were offering on Leicester City at the start of the football season 5000-1. They have lost £Millions, which is great to see.
I appreciate it's apples and pears, but occasionally they get it very wrong!!
originally posted by: CynConcepts
Thanks for sharing. Loved exploring their charts. Yes, it is interesting to see Clinton vs Trump. I seriously believe that if the case, Clinton's numbers will drop as Trump rises. Trump has been vetted through the primary, Clinton has had an easy ride. That will change soon!
In Trumps case his style has made sure everybody knows him and already has an opinion. For the most part with Trump that opinion is not good. That makes his job twice as hard.
originally posted by: Gazrok
Clinton has a huge lead. 71% to Trump's 24%. Damn...
I should put some money on Trump. With those odds, if he DOES pull it out, would be a good pay-off.
DONALD J. TRUMP RESPONDS TO THE MOST RECENT OUTBURST FROM TED CRUZ
Ted Cruz is a desperate candidate trying to save his failing campaign. It is no surprise he has resorted to his usual tactics of over-the-top rhetoric that nobody believes. Over the last week, I have watched Lyin’ Ted become more and more unhinged as he is unable to react under the pressure and stress of losing, in all cases by landslides, the last six primary elections --- in fact, coming in last place in all but one of them. Today’s ridiculous outburst only proves what I have been saying for a long time, that Ted Cruz does not have the temperament to be President of the United States.
Trumps response to Cruz's incredible outburst today