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The Betting Odds

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posted on May, 3 2016 @ 08:37 AM
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Having watched the betting odds very carefully in 2008 and 2012, one week or less before primary and general elections they were never wrong.


Why trust these odds?
Studies find that political prediction (betting) markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls. Some reasons:
- Bettors take into account important factors besides polls.
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are.
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The "wisdom of crowds".



Is there enough trading on Betfair to give reliable odds?
So far, over $2 million has been bet on Betfair on the races covered here on ElectionBettingOdds.com.

In 2012, Betfair traders predicted the election outcome and called it with more certainty than Intrade.com.

How precise are these odds?
The average bid-ask spread is roughly 1%, meaning that a difference of less then 1% should generally not be viewed as significant. The markets are not always very deep, either; I would suggest assuming a "margin of error" of 3 or 4% (similar to the margin of error of polls, but the odds are still much more indicative of who will win compared to just looking at a poll.)


I followed intrade very close they were good, I was sad when they got shut down.

So here is the link to this.
www.electionbettingodds.com...

www.electionbettingodds.com...



edit on 3-5-2016 by Blue_Jay33 because: (no reason given)




posted on May, 3 2016 @ 08:41 AM
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a reply to: Blue_Jay33

Clinton has a huge lead. 71% to Trump's 24%.

Damn...



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 08:42 AM
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These odds are massively in favour of Trump in INdiana.... I just don't think it is so cut and dried. RCP only has the race in a single digit lead for Trump.

Things can happen fast even in the last day.

I also think Nebraska will go to Cruz, but Trump is the favorite in the betting links you provided.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 08:59 AM
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Thanks for sharing. Loved exploring their charts. Yes, it is interesting to see Clinton vs Trump. I seriously believe that if the case, Clinton's numbers will drop as Trump rises. Trump has been vetted through the primary, Clinton has had an easy ride. That will change soon!



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 09:38 AM
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Clinton has a huge lead. 71% to Trump's 24%. Damn...


I should put some money on Trump. With those odds, if he DOES pull it out, would be a good pay-off.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 09:45 AM
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originally posted by: UKTruth
These odds are massively in favour of Trump in INdiana.... I just don't think it is so cut and dried. RCP only has the race in a single digit lead for Trump.

Things can happen fast even in the last day.

I also think Nebraska will go to Cruz, but Trump is the favorite in the betting links you provided.


Being from Nebraska, I honestly think Trump will take it.

Nobody likes Cruz....hell nobody really even likes Trump, but he'll win over Cruz any day here.

Although Lincoln and Omaha ultimately decide for this state since those 2 cities have a larger population combined than the entire rest of the state, and they are largely Democratic. So it was no surprise to see Sanders take the Dem side.

Cruz is just too far right, I think, to win here.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 09:50 AM
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Smart money is still on Clinton....

Betting real money is still allowed in Britain for wagers on elections.

British odds makers are seldom wrong, even on US elections.


I seldom place these kind of bets as I prefer Texas Holdem or the Track, betting on some long shot in the Rain.



www.paddypower.com...


Vegas odd also favor Clinton but you would have to find a bookie to take your money because You can't bet on Elections in a legitimate gambling establishment.

www.vegasinsider.com...


But we're still eight months out for the general election....I'm betting Trump will bail and be replace by some other clown for the GOP.

Who wants some of this action?


edit on 3-5-2016 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 10:06 AM
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I have always said look at what the bookmakers are suggesting when it comes to elections, as they are rarely wrong.

But look at the odds they were offering on Leicester City at the start of the football season 5000-1. They have lost £Millions, which is great to see.

I appreciate it's apples and pears, but occasionally they get it very wrong!!



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 10:32 AM
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originally posted by: Cobaltic1978
I have always said look at what the bookmakers are suggesting when it comes to elections, as they are rarely wrong.

But look at the odds they were offering on Leicester City at the start of the football season 5000-1. They have lost £Millions, which is great to see.

I appreciate it's apples and pears, but occasionally they get it very wrong!!


Leicester winning the league here in the UK is the greatest sporting achievement and upset of all time, world wide. It's the British version of the film Moneyball, except they actually went all the way.

A Cruz win tonight would only be a fraction of that upset, maybe the equivalent of Arsenal winning the league lol.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 10:44 AM
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originally posted by: CynConcepts
Thanks for sharing. Loved exploring their charts. Yes, it is interesting to see Clinton vs Trump. I seriously believe that if the case, Clinton's numbers will drop as Trump rises. Trump has been vetted through the primary, Clinton has had an easy ride. That will change soon!


Clinton has been vetted to death, as First Lady, Sec State, Senator and 2 Presidential Primaries. And the real problem is the lack of undecideds. People have made up their minds and those minds rarely change. Rolling out of a primary a new guy like Trump would have a chance to win over undecided voters that did not know much about him. In Trumps case his style has made sure everybody knows him and already has an opinion. For the most part with Trump that opinion is not good. That makes his job twice as hard.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 10:55 AM
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a reply to: MrSpad




In Trumps case his style has made sure everybody knows him and already has an opinion. For the most part with Trump that opinion is not good. That makes his job twice as hard.


And that's the very reason I see Trump pulling out of the race. He is not stupid and knows this; he also is ego driven and will not tolerate a lifelong "loser" label tied around his neck that would color his entire career as a businessman. A loss to Clinton would destroy him emotionally and force him into retirement. He would rather stay a player in the minor leagues than completely dumped.

I will admit that Trump added a much needed dialog to the American election process and shows it for the train-wreak it is. If a third party bid is in Trumps future; that would also be a good thing; at least that way the Right Wing could still have a voice and the GOP could perhaps regain a semblance of normalcy, that Trump has totally destroyed.
edit on 3-5-2016 by olaru12 because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 11:13 AM
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originally posted by: Gazrok



Clinton has a huge lead. 71% to Trump's 24%. Damn...


I should put some money on Trump. With those odds, if he DOES pull it out, would be a good pay-off.


It would be a good payout if you wagered a considerable amount, but I wouldn't gamble on this. It's a suckers bet.




posted on May, 3 2016 @ 01:03 PM
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Trumps response to Cruz's incredible outburst today


DONALD J. TRUMP RESPONDS TO THE MOST RECENT OUTBURST FROM TED CRUZ
Ted Cruz is a desperate candidate trying to save his failing campaign. It is no surprise he has resorted to his usual tactics of over-the-top rhetoric that nobody believes. Over the last week, I have watched Lyin’ Ted become more and more unhinged as he is unable to react under the pressure and stress of losing, in all cases by landslides, the last six primary elections --- in fact, coming in last place in all but one of them. Today’s ridiculous outburst only proves what I have been saying for a long time, that Ted Cruz does not have the temperament to be President of the United States.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 01:27 PM
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Trumps response to Cruz's incredible outburst today



Hehe...pot...meet kettle....kettle...pot...



edit on 3-5-2016 by Gazrok because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 02:02 PM
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originally posted by: Gazrok


Trumps response to Cruz's incredible outburst today



Hehe...pot...meet kettle....kettle...pot...




Yeah, when Donald not having an outburst. That is pretty much what he is best at.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 03:43 PM
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Hey those odds are looking shaky - turnout is massive and some on the ground reports via various forums and social media that Cruz may be winning..



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 06:53 PM
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a reply to: MrSpad

Nope she has not been vetted by Trump and the alliance that will form up against her in the general, "CynConcepts" is right. Trump is well vetted and survived a brutal primary, the most difficult one in decades.
Bernie never vetted Clinton he took the high road, good for his integrity, but this wasn't the election to do that, bad for the DNC. In a Sanders verses Trump, it's Sanders. Against Hillary it's a roll of the dice. Those numbers will start to shift, I am not sure what percentage of Sanders supporters just won't vote for Hillary no matter what.
And to be sure the Trump train has just left the station it isn't at full speed maybe at 25%.....he is just starting.

I love hearing the CNN pundits talking about this tonight, especially how they all underestimated Trump from day 1.



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