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Universe Likely Has Many Extinct Civilizations: Study

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posted on May, 3 2016 @ 12:54 AM
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originally posted by: OneGoal
This notion seems baffling and logically absurd.

Are we alone and all other e.t. civilizations are dead?? Come on now.


Not necessarily so. It's just that we are, as far as what we know of how life has emerged and gone extinct on Earth, more likely find more dead civilizations than living ones. In the roughly 4.5 billion year history of Earth nearly 99% of all species to ever livde are extinct. What we see in our vast biodiversity today is but a drop in the bucket compared to what once lived.

If the universe also follows this pattern then, while the it maybe host to an enormous amount of biodiversity, our chances of running into the ruins of intelligent civilizations is far more likely than running into a species still alive.
edit on 3 5 16 by projectvxn because: (no reason given)




posted on May, 3 2016 @ 01:00 AM
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I think those 3 potentially-habitable planets announced today by NASA may harbor extinct civilizations. Their star has cooled, which means the system is very old...maybe. But wait a minute. If the planets are now habitable, this implies that they weren't, when the star was in it's hot/stable period. Assuming there was one. We know so little about the universe.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 01:49 AM
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a reply to: starwarsisreal
Speculations can really fire up our imagination. Aren't we talking only about the Observable Universe? Do we even have an idea how big the universe is? Maybe in ten years man can invent better instruments to measure the cosmic microwave background and push the limits to a few billion light years more?

Luckily we don't need to wait that long, remember KIC 8462852 the anomalous star located in the constellation Cygnus?

N obel Awarded astronomer has suspicions about Alien MegaStructure
Did we just discover aliens? Scientists aren’t ruling it out

edit on 09 11 2015 by MaxTamesSiva because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 03:33 AM
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I feel that intergalactic space is too vast for us to consider notions outside of our own galaxy. Can advanced civilizations star-hop and colonize a star system? Sure, our sample of one tells us it is possible.

If there is one, there can be others. That's where we are at. A few to a few dozen civilizations in the galaxy, with almost none of them "bumping" into each other....that's my gut.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 03:53 AM
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The Solar System is almost half the age of the universe, and it took billions of years for primitive life to appear and evolve into humans. So, unless all other life in the universe appeared very soon after the Big Bang to allow it to evolve into intelligent beings that could then die out by the current time, I wouldn't put any weight into this notion.

We see planets being formed in many places in our galaxy, and there are trillions of galaxies in the observable universe. Thus, it's more logical to assume that life is currently out there and will be for a long time.

The reasons we're not seeing any is firstly enormous distances between stars, and secondly it might take very long and take very specific environmental conditions for a civilisation of intelligent beings to arise.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 05:01 AM
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a reply to: carewemust

That's working on the assumption that there is life elsewhere in the Universe.

All, until such time as we find ET, we have is conjecture.

We may be alone. We may be one of many, many, or one of a few.

We may be the first. We may be the last. Given the vast expanse of the Universe, we may never know.

Life may be abundant. Or it may require very special circumstances to flourish. I suspect it'll be both. Abundant, yet fragile, and easily broken.



posted on May, 3 2016 @ 05:02 AM
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originally posted by: Miccey
You guys are all forgetting one crusial detail...


EVOLUTION... NO!! im not gonna touch creationism...so dont even go there.

Every single organism on this planet has some origin. Yea, even Crocodiles.
And guess what, they have been around for a LOOOOOONG time.
Birds and the bees... Oh man, seriously... 99.9% is extinct, yea RIIIGHT.

No, they have EVOOOLVED...Ok

Most species of crocodile that have existed are now extinct.

Remember, the poster said species, not families.

Just because crocodiles (for example) exist today, that doesn't mean that the large majority of different crocodile species that have existed still do.

When you say "No, they have EVOOOLVED," you're indicating new species, not the old ones.

The estimate that 99.9% of all species that have ever existed are now extinct is completely valid, however you might feel about that statement.

Harte
edit on 5/3/2016 by Harte because: of the wonderful things he does!



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 01:05 AM
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Species

And this is just out:



Earth could contain nearly 1 trillion species, with only one-thousandth of 1 percent now identified, according to a study from biologists. The estimate is based on the intersection of large datasets and universal scaling laws.


And this just shows how MUCH we actually know...
As in VERY little....



"Until recently, we've lacked the tools to truly estimate the number of microbial species in the natural environment," he added. "The advent of new genetic sequencing technology provides an unprecedentedly large pool of new information."


Yes i know they are talking about
microbes mainly, but still...

We know nothing really.

99.9% my BOTTOM



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 04:20 AM
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originally posted by: Miccey
Species

And this is just out:



Earth could contain nearly 1 trillion species, with only one-thousandth of 1 percent now identified, according to a study from biologists. The estimate is based on the intersection of large datasets and universal scaling laws.


And this just shows how MUCH we actually know...
As in VERY little....



"Until recently, we've lacked the tools to truly estimate the number of microbial species in the natural environment," he added. "The advent of new genetic sequencing technology provides an unprecedentedly large pool of new information."


Yes i know they are talking about
microbes mainly, but still...

We know nothing really.

99.9% my BOTTOM

Microbial fossils are hard to find.

Harte



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 07:02 AM
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originally posted by: Signals
Yes, of course it does, and many yet un-born.

Look at Earth, over 99% of every organism that ever existed on this planet is now extinct. Over 99% !


........................and as far as we are aware none of those species ever had the ability or inclination to leave this planet - neither does any existing species on Earth except mankind. Why do people assume that life elsewhere will have both the ability and inclination to do so?



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 07:14 AM
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a reply to: CoBaZ

Like a fine wine, the Hitch hikers guide just gets better and better.



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 07:29 AM
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originally posted by: Harte

originally posted by: Miccey
Species

And this is just out:



Earth could contain nearly 1 trillion species, with only one-thousandth of 1 percent now identified, according to a study from biologists. The estimate is based on the intersection of large datasets and universal scaling laws.


And this just shows how MUCH we actually know...
As in VERY little....



"Until recently, we've lacked the tools to truly estimate the number of microbial species in the natural environment," he added. "The advent of new genetic sequencing technology provides an unprecedentedly large pool of new information."


Yes i know they are talking about
microbes mainly, but still...

We know nothing really.

99.9% my BOTTOM

Microbial fossils are hard to find.

Harte


Thats what you got from the article...
Cmon Harte, i know you can do better.

The number 99.9% is a lame guess at best..
Even doing math, it is.

So lets asume the article is valid. AND that 99.9%
is ALSO valid. 1Trillion + 99.9% almost 2trillion
species... On ONE!! planet... And how many
more out there.... WE DONT!! know



posted on May, 4 2016 @ 04:30 PM
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originally posted by: Miccey

originally posted by: Harte

originally posted by: Miccey
Species

And this is just out:



Earth could contain nearly 1 trillion species, with only one-thousandth of 1 percent now identified, according to a study from biologists. The estimate is based on the intersection of large datasets and universal scaling laws.


And this just shows how MUCH we actually know...
As in VERY little....



"Until recently, we've lacked the tools to truly estimate the number of microbial species in the natural environment," he added. "The advent of new genetic sequencing technology provides an unprecedentedly large pool of new information."


Yes i know they are talking about
microbes mainly, but still...

We know nothing really.

99.9% my BOTTOM

Microbial fossils are hard to find.

Harte


Thats what you got from the article...
Cmon Harte, i know you can do better.

The number 99.9% is a lame guess at best..
Even doing math, it is.

So lets asume the article is valid. AND that 99.9%
is ALSO valid. 1Trillion + 99.9% almost 2trillion
species... On ONE!! planet... And how many
more out there.... WE DONT!! know

If we don't know now, we didn't know in the past either.

Given what we do know about lifetimes of species, from what information we have, estimates have been made.

Microbial life evolves astonishingly quickly you know. The number of species of microbes on Earth might never change, and still we could have 99.8% of all microbial species that ever existed extinct.

Harte



posted on May, 5 2016 @ 02:03 AM
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Estimates! Yes i buy that...Not conclusive though.

Evolves quickly, oh yea... Into what??
Some that was "born" ages ago, MIGHT still be alive.
4.5bn years out of 13 some...

Trillions of species...

On ONE planet out of "TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS" in the universe..
Not this galaxy, i mean the entire UNIVERSE... And we are the only
one....?!?!? Seriously

No way



posted on May, 5 2016 @ 04:04 AM
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originally posted by: Miccey
On ONE planet out of "TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS" in the universe..
Not this galaxy, i mean the entire UNIVERSE... And we are the only
one....?!?!? Seriously

No way

I don't think anyone is claiming that.

The claim is that we may be the only intelligent, technologically advanced culture in our immediate region of the universe.

There is certainly life of some sort elsewhere, and probably nearby, in astronomical terms.


Harte
edit on 5/5/2016 by Harte because: I said so!



posted on May, 5 2016 @ 04:21 AM
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originally posted by: projectvxn
But I fancy the idea that one of the greatest resources in the Cosmos for us will be the extinct civilizations out there that left some infrastructure and some tech behind for us to use. I personally believe that the universe is teeming with life. And if the universe follows Earth to any degree in terms of how life evolves and goes extinct, then we are far more likely to discover millions of corpses before we discover millions of neighbors.


It may be true the universe is teeming with life but I believe it's a minority which makes it into space. Many of those relics might be temples, clothing, jewelry, but nothing technologically interesting.

Then there is age, we would need to look for lost tech in another galaxy which is older than ours to increase the chances of finding a civilization that evolved for a long time AND went extinct. And by then we would already have our own tech anyway. But some lost ship adrift for millions of years might be something real to stumble upon.

Still, if the people are gone, it's not tech that can sustain a civilization. It might be infected with some killer virus no tech could go against or some natural disaster, anyhow their tech would proven to be insufficient.



posted on May, 22 2016 @ 01:33 PM
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originally posted by: starwarsisreal
What if the reason why we didn't detect extraterrestrial civilizations because many of them are now extinct?

news.discovery.com...


I've always liked thought experiments such as this, but the results can be highly subjective.

I read through the article, and the authors responsible for this particular study have effectively assumed that the average civilization lasts no longer than our own: about 10,000 years.



Our civilization is 10,000 years old; unless a typical civilization lasts much longer, over the 13-billion year lifespan of the universe it's likely the others have gone extinct.


That may be a good assumption or it may be a bad one, but it's effectively stacking the deck.

I would interpret the statistics very differently: We only have one inhabited world to extrapolate from, and on that world, although life evolved early, complex multicellular life has existed for only a quarter of that time, and intelligent life has existed for a tiny, infinitesimal fraction of that. That does not imply that there were many civilizations that went extinct, it implies that natural selection does not automatically favor intelligent life. How long have sharks been around without evolving intelligence? The statistics tell us that intelligent life and civilizations are rare because we are the product of a fortuitous series of events that happened to stumble in our direction.



posted on May, 22 2016 @ 04:28 PM
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Too many assumptions. That can lead to general correctness or absolute error. Which is it?



posted on May, 23 2016 @ 12:37 AM
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a reply to: johnnyjoe1979

I agree, there are likely few that make it into space. In fact, it may be that interstellar travel is impossible and that is why we have not seen aliens. That in fact may be the probable answer. Otherwise, the analysis that indicates the entire galaxy can be explored in a couple of million years should have yielded contact already. Perhaps that is the real game, the race to become interstellar before going extinct. It may be that humans could be the first. If humans are the first, I doubt we find corpses or relics. Rather, those planets will be uninhabitable and we won't go there. Rather, we will find lots of primitive and animal life and very little intelligent life.

The intelligent life may marvel at the key we have found to interstellar travel. That will then lead to two huge issues. Do you give that key to another civilization, who could then invade you. If that civilization needs to leave their planet because it is nearing the end of its habitable life, do you help a few of them go to another habitable planet.

Another plausible explanation for not seeing anyone is that the available resources are few out there. Therefore, if you do find intelligent life who is not yet space faring, you study them to learn what they do know but you don't make contact as it is just too much of a hassle and it invites competition. In fact, if humans did become interstellar, I think that is what the policy should be, no contact, no technology sharing. We study them from a distance and nothing more.

There are likely lots of extinct civilizations especially toward the center of our galaxy where the stars are older. But, we will never find these civilizations. They are lost to history unless they sent probes to planets to tell us who they were.

As I understand our planet, we have about 1B more years or less before the sun makes the earth uninhabitable. We either discover the key to interestellar travel before then or how to terraform Mars to extend our civilization or we become extinct. We will have to survive a lot of extinction possibilities during that time. The first is likely to arrive in about 100 years when the planet reaches its maximum habitable capacity. Can we change our behavior enough to get along to survive in that environment. The second will arrive at some point when we have put enough fossil fuel polution in the atmosphere that irreversible climate change starts to take place.

Interesting topic.



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