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Universe Likely Has Many Extinct Civilizations: Study

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posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:07 PM
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What if the reason why we didn't detect extraterrestrial civilizations because many of them are now extinct?




A new paper in Astrobiology suggests there could be a way to simplify the equation, based on the observations of exoplanets that we have made since the first one was discovered in the 1990s. While the result is depressing — life was plentiful, but is likely extinct — it does have applications to help us extend our own civilization, the researchers said. The research was led by Adam Frank, a physics and astronomer professor at the University of Rochester.





“We’ve known for a long time approximately how many stars exist,” Frank added. “We didn’t know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.” Here are the elements that Frank and co-author Woodruff Sullivan (of the astronomy department and astrobiology program at the University of Washington) propose could be changed:

How many stars have habitable planets? 1/5 of stars have planets in habitable zones. This is known due to the Kepler space telescope’s search of exoplanets as well as other planetary research.

How long can civilizations survive? That question is very hard to answer, so the researchers instead asked “Are we the only technological species that has ever arisen?” More on that subject later in this article.

How likely is it for advanced life to arise on a planet? The researchers instead tried to imagine a universe where humanity is the only one. By applying this probability question to the number of known stars the researchers found a probability of one in 10 billion trillion. In our own Milky Way, the number rises to just one chance in 60 billion.


news.discovery.com...

After reading this I wonder what if we were the last intelligent species in the Universe and all the other ones are long dead.




posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:08 PM
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After reading this I wonder what if we were the last intelligent species in the Universe and all the other ones are long dead.

No need to be the last. The first would have had the same problem.



posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:15 PM
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Sounds like they took the old , unrevised Drake's equation out to the nth degree.



posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:18 PM
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The "Universe" is exactly the same as Earth.

They are all phased 'versions' of Earth. Just as every planet in the solar system is the SAME planet.

We are the sun. Venus is the 'second eye' to Earth. Pluto is the moon.

Get it?

Why is Pluto the moon? Because Neptune is a phasing of our own ocean layers.

It is .. the .. same ... planet!!!

They are all the same thing. In different phase 'states'.

Venus and Earth are like two eyes bringing focus. Look at pictures of Venus. ACTUAL pictures. Not artistic renderings.

The actual pictures? It looks EXACTLY LIKE EARTH? I wonder why it looks like Earth?

GEE I WONDER!

Because IT IS EARTH!
edit on 30-4-2016 by IamSandSHEisB because: (no reason given)


+6 more 
posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:19 PM
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a reply to: IamSandSHEisB




Because IT IS EARTH!

No it isn't. It's Venus and it looks nothing like Earth. Not the same size. No Moon.
edit on 4/30/2016 by Phage because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 10:30 PM
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a reply to: starwarsisreal

But new stars and planets have been being continuously created

edit on 30-4-2016 by ImaFungi because: (no reason given)



posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 11:02 PM
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You know what? God is sooo.. AWESOME! What we refer to as "generations", here on Earth, also exist Universe-wide. Humans born 10 generations before us are now gone. We are the present generation. In 200 years, a totally different generation will be living here.

On a Universal scale, at any given time, there are likely millions of alive-and-well Civilizations. Like our current generation, there are young, medium age, and old members.

And, like we see here on our planet, many generations have gone, and (hopefully) many more will come forth in the future.

I get the feeling that the steady background "noise" coming at Earth from all angles are inter & intra-civilization communications between present and past civilizations... many millions of them.



posted on Apr, 30 2016 @ 11:18 PM
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I think there is some logic in these new
equations. BUT

Yes, probably MANY MANY extinct ones.
But i think new ones are created ALL
the time. Do some survive their own
"inteligense", maybe not, or they do...
Until we can go out and see for our self
we DONT KNOW..Ok.

We can only speculate.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 12:33 AM
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Rare, yet abundant, yep.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 12:34 AM
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originally posted by: Phage



After reading this I wonder what if we were the last intelligent species in the Universe and all the other ones are long dead.

No need to be the last. The first would have had the same problem.


Or every one in between.

This stuff is fun to ponder, but it can be bleak.

There may be an earth like planet epoch that burst into being, therefore no signals have a chance to reach us at this point in time, all intelligent life in the universe may be too new for signals to cross on a universal scale.

Even in our own galaxy the margin of error in difference between time of planet formation and arrival of intelligent life and their extinction could mean signal windows never match with observation windows, even though distances are shorter compared to the universe as a whole. The signal has to be on and the window open to be a discovery. The windows are shut most of the time and the signals are off most of the time. There could never be a discovery by any intelligence here or elsewhere.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 12:35 AM
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a reply to: TinfoilTP

I like being able to suggest this for people's light reading list:
www.amazon.com...



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 12:55 AM
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Good point.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 12:59 AM
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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: TinfoilTP

I like being able to suggest this for people's light reading list:
www.amazon.com...


Thanks for providing the link.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 02:03 AM
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a reply to: starwarsisreal

Ever play Mass Effect?

Advanced AI warships were the organics mortal enemy.
edit on 1-5-2016 by OneGoal because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 04:22 AM
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originally posted by: IamSandSHEisB
The "Universe" is exactly the same as Earth.

They are all phased 'versions' of Earth. Just as every planet in the solar system is the SAME planet.

We are the sun. Venus is the 'second eye' to Earth. Pluto is the moon.

Get it?

Why is Pluto the moon? Because Neptune is a phasing of our own ocean layers.

It is .. the .. same ... planet!!!

They are all the same thing. In different phase 'states'.

Venus and Earth are like two eyes bringing focus. Look at pictures of Venus. ACTUAL pictures. Not artistic renderings.

The actual pictures? It looks EXACTLY LIKE EARTH? I wonder why it looks like Earth?

GEE I WONDER!

Because IT IS EARTH!


Stay off the drugs for a while.....my advice



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 07:27 AM
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a reply to: starwarsisreal


They will have extincted themselves--that is a good words, isn't it? or have matured into a different form beyond mechanical or technological existence.


The other side of it is that there are some folks, probably a healthy percentage of them, that are very sophisticated travelers around the Universe that have a keen interest in us as being rather backward beings of some intelligence. After all, they were would be aware of their progression from the lowest beings in their corner of the Universe to their current place.


In other words, this scientific prediction/guess is an excellent place to nudge us along the path of enlightenment toward accepting that there just might be something to the various kinds and shapes of UFOs that we have witnessed over the years.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 07:38 AM
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originally posted by: starwarsisreal

After reading this I wonder what if we were the last intelligent species in the Universe and all the other ones are long dead.


I don't believe that. The universe is so immense. There has to be intelligent life somewhere. We don't fully understand our own planet, let alone the entire universe. Intelligent life could live in zones that are inhospitable to humans. We don't know. Hell, they could breathe water and exhale air. We just don't know.
edit on 1-5-2016 by LaWnOrDeR92 because: (no reason given)

edit on 1-5-2016 by LaWnOrDeR92 because: (no reason given)



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 08:46 AM
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Yes, of course it does, and many yet un-born.

Look at Earth, over 99% of every organism that ever existed on this planet is now extinct. Over 99% !



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 09:04 AM
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I think we need to take our drone technology to the next level.

Start sending swarms of these things out into the cosmos. I would bet that any habitable planets probably have ruins of long extinct civilizations on them. We might get lucky and discover a more recent civilization. Or even an advanced, but extinct one whose tech we can harvest.

Oh the possibilities are fun to think about.



posted on May, 1 2016 @ 09:26 AM
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a reply to: Signals

Another speculation...

How do "you" come up with that number?
Have you counted ALL species that ever existed and
then done your "math"... Seriously

Even IF that was FACT... How many species have survived
extinction level events?!? Thats a number that actually
CAN be calculated... And at those odds...Man, i think
surviving is inevitable, for SOME... BUT, that to is PURE
speculation.



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