Kenneth Arnold Debunked?

a reply to: AboveBoard
There weren't just two, there were lots of bright flashes. All you need for this to happen is for the "mirror-like" inversion layer to not be perfectly flat but to have some variation. If it's perfectly flat it will act somewhat like a flat mirror and just show a basic reflection, and Maccabee seems to assume it must be perfectly flat but this isn't necessarily so, there's no reason it can't have some slight undulations, and it would be these undulations that would cause both the apparent erratic flying motion as well as the bright flashes.

This is from my mirage thread and in this mirage you can see some distant snow in the reflection that's not even visible without the reflection:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Here's an interesting photo of a mirage:

www.polarimage.fi...

Contrary to Maccabee's claim that can't explain flying between peaks, yes, it can, because he's not considering this type of mirage, he's thinking that only things directly in view are reflected which isn't always the case as this example shows. As for maccabee's claim that mirages are stationary, here's proof that's not always the case, also from my mirage thread:

originally posted by: Arbitrageur
There is a story by the university of Alaska about mirages there, here: info.alaska.edu...
but that link didn't work so I put it in the wayback machine:
web.archive.org...*/info.alaska.edu...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/536f15dc7f2c.png[/atsimg]

Please note several things:

1. Look at the HUGE size!!!!!!!! "this one filled the whole valley, which is approximately 500 miles wide and 120 miles across" The Tanana valley must be capable of HUGE inversions to get such a huge mirage. We are only talking about half that 500 miles for the JL1628 flight for the initial sighting that may have been about 220 miles away.

2. Note the unstable appearance of the mirage, some "dancing around of the images, if you will, similar to what the JL1628 reported:

The inducement of the Superior Mirage by a thermal inversion over Tanana Valley was phenomenal. Every few minutes the mirages would change shape and size like an undulating wave. The hills in every direction were changing dimensions from hourglass structures to just a lid on top of them.

Now think about this, if the mirage is undulating as observed by a stationary ground observer, then how much moreso will a mirage undulate as seen by a jet traveling hundreds of miles an hour? Changes in a mirage that take minutes to appear for a stationary observer could appear in seconds for an observer moving that fast. So I think we can eliminate the theory that mirage images don't move, I expect they can dance around just as described by the JL1628 crew if the conditions are right.

I was referring to a jet in that post for comparison but even in Arnold's prop plane, he would have more chance to see undulation because of his motion than a stationary observer, and it is this undulation which can result in the observation of "flashes" as well as the apparent erratic "flying motion" he observed.

Arnold's observations are much more consistent with such mirage undulations than with any flying craft.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

Interesting. I'm curious as to how there could specifically be 9 individual "lights" (or craft or parts of a mirage) consistently displayed (in other words, they didn't blip in and out) over this distance, while including his change of direction and the appearance of movement from far off all the way to the south.

I guess my question is, how could such a "mirage" remain stable for so long in the manifestation of 9 lights, with one darker grey one in front? That doesn't make sense to me. Yes they "tilt" or "wobble" from Arnold's POV.

Would this "mirage" only be able to be seen, then, by Arnold due to his position? If so, then why did it remain after he changed positions, keep the "nine objects" eight of which were shiny "metallic" and one of which was a darker grey. They did not "morph" their shapes according to anything in Arnold's view. What, then was this a "mirage" of?? How could it remain stable so long??

Is there an explanation for that as well?

I'm really trying to understand here, and certainly not to troll you. It honestly doesn't make sense to me that the "mirage" would be entirely stable (I don't mean the appearance of wobbling or tilting) regardless of his flight path being east or south, retain metallic coloring v darker grey on the front circle, retain shape, appear circular, and appear to move from both his eastward flight path and his southern flight path. It just seems like that's a lot to ask of a mirage, which by nature is a changeable thing based on position of the viewer, atmospheric conditions and angles of light...

- AB

a reply to: AboveBoard
Look at this, why is it white in some places and gray in others? Because those are the colors of the terrain being reflected:



Now if you're seeing just the tops of the terrain they will look like UFOs, in fact you can see a "UFO" in the mirage image on maccabee's page, look near the top center above the "e" in "some" where you see a reflection of a dark peak, but if it had been covered by snow it would be white instead, and of course if you have a mixture of snow covered and darker peaks reflected then the "UFOs" would be the color of the terrain that was being reflected:

brumac.8k.com...


If there are undulations in the thermal inversion you'll see those in the form of things like flashes or the images dancing around a bit just as Arnold described, and as for the flying motion they will appear to pace the plane just as Venus or the moon does because they have a distant source. Anything distant appears to pace the plane because it appears to move relative to closer terrain.

I don't know why you're saying it was stable, it wasn't, the images were dancing around according to Arnold, more proof they were illusions rather than flying objects. Thermal inversions can be large (see the previous example I posted with dimensions of at least 120 miles by 500 miles) but the size did have limitations, as Arnold reported the objects seemed to "fade away" which again seems more like a mirage than planes flying away to me.

I'm still confused as to how it could be a mirage, when it moved from his POV left to right in front of him, coming from quite a distance away, then heading past him and to the south.

I'm also confused as to why there would be a corroboration from on the ground by the prospector and 16 other sightings that day besides Arnold. If it were JUST Arnold, and no one saw them fly by overhead, then I'd be more likely to consider the mirage explanation.

Nothing in the mirage examples you given me are looking or behaving like the objects he sighted, along with these other witnesses.

I'm perplexed as to how the mirage example can still hold up under all the other evidence. ???

At the beginning, they move from left to right across his field of vision. Later, he turns south and they zoom ahead of him, fading from his view (not that they disappeared, but that his eyes could no longer see them). So they didn't "pace the plane" but rather, outpaced the plane.

About 30 seconds after seeing the first flash of light, Arnold saw a series of bright flashes in the distance off to his left, or north of Mt. Rainier, which was then 20 to 25 miles (40 km) away. He thought they might be reflections on his airplane's windows, but a few quick tests (rocking his airplane from side to side, removing his eyeglasses, later rolling down his side window) ruled this out. The reflections came from flying objects. They flew in a long chain, and Arnold for a moment considered they might be a flock of geese, but quickly ruled this out for a number of reasons, including the altitude, bright glint, and obviously very fast speed. He then thought they might be a new type of jet and started looking intently for a tail and was surprised that he couldn't find any.

As the objects passed Mt Rainer, Arnold turned his plane southward on a more or less parallel course. It was at this point that he opened his side window and began observing the objects unobstructed by any glass that might have produced reflections. The objects did not disappear and continued to move very rapidly southward, continuously moving forward of his position. Curious about their speed, he began to time their rate of passage: he said they moved from Mt. Rainer to Mount Adams where they faded from view, a distance of about 50 miles (80 km), in one minute and forty-two seconds, according to the clock on his instrument panel. When he later had time to do the calculation, the speed was over 1,700 miles per hour (2,700 km/h). This was about three times faster than any manned aircraft in 1947. Not knowing exactly the distance where the objects faded from view, Arnold conservatively and arbitrarily rounded this down to 1,200 miles (1,900 km) an hour, still faster than any known aircraft, which had yet to break the sound barrier. It was this supersonic speed in addition to the unusual saucer or disk description that seemed to capture people's attention.

link

Corroboration[edit]
Arnold's sighting was partly corroborated by a prospector named Fred Johnson on Mt. Adams, who wrote AAF intelligence that he saw six of the objects on June 24 at about the same time as Arnold, which he viewed through a small telescope. He said they were "round" and tapered "sharply to a point in the head and in an oval shape." He also noted that the objects seemed to disturb his compass. An evaluation of the witness by AAF intelligence found him to be credible. Ironically, Johnson's report was listed as the first unexplained UFO report in Air Force files, while Arnold's was dismissed as a mirage, yet Johnson seemed to be describing a continuation of the same event as Arnold.

The Portland Oregon Journal reported on July 4 receiving a letter from an L. G. Bernier of Richland, Washington (about 110 miles (180 km) east of Mt. Adams and 140 miles (230 km) southeast of Mt. Rainier). Bernier wrote that he saw three of the strange objects over Richland flying "almost edgewise" toward Mt. Rainier about one half-hour before Arnold. Bernier thought the three were part of a larger formation. He indicated they were traveling at high speed: "I have seen a P-38 appear seemingly on one horizon and then gone to the opposite horizon in no time at all, but these disks certainly were traveling faster than any P-38. [Maximum speed of a P-38 was about 440 miles an hour.] No doubt Mr. Arnold saw them just a few minutes or seconds later, according to their speed."[11] The previous day, Bernier had also spoken to his local newspaper, the Richland Washington Villager, and was among the first witnesses to suggest extraterrestrial origins: "I believe it may be a visitor from another planet." [12]

About 60 miles (97 km) west-northwest of Richland in Yakima, Washington, a woman named Ethel Wheelhouse likewise reported sighting several flying discs moving at fantastic speeds at around the same time as Arnold's sighting.[13]

When military intelligence began investigating Arnold's sighting in early July (see below), they found yet another witness from the area. A member of the Washington State forest service, who had been on fire watch at a tower in Diamond Gap, about 20 miles (32 km) south of Yakima, reported seeing "flashes" at 3:00 p.m. on the 24th over Mount Rainier (or exactly the same time as Arnold's sighting), that appeared to move in a straight line. Similarly, at 3:00 p.m. Sidney B. Gallagher in Washington state (exact position unspecified) reported seeing nine shiny discs flash by to the north.[14]

A Seattle newspaper also mentioned a woman near Tacoma who said she saw a chain of nine, bright objects flying at high speed near Mt. Rainier. Unfortunately this short news item wasn't precise as to time or date, but indicated it was around the same date as Arnold's sighting.

However, a pilot of a DC-4 some 10 to 15 miles (24 km) north of Arnold en route to Seattle reported seeing nothing unusual. (This was the same DC-4 seen by Arnold and which he used for size comparison.)

Other Seattle area newspapers also reported other sightings of flashing, rapidly moving unknown objects on the same day, but not the same time, as Arnold's sighting. Most of these sightings were over Seattle or west of Seattle in the town of Bremerton, either that morning or at night.[15] Altogether, there were at least 16 other reported UFO sightings the same day as Arnold's in the Washington state area. maptable of Washington state sightings

a reply to: AboveBoard

It's never going to be debunkable. Some people can rest secure in the knowledge that it's 'debunked' in their minds, but it won't amount to a reasonable consensus.

If you have the time (and if it hasn't been posted yet), Martin Shough's analysis will interest you: The Singular Adventure of Mr Kenneth Arnold. It's been some time since I read it and it addresses every popular explanation in nitty gritty detail.

a reply to: Kandinsky

I am most intrigued.

I agree that it has not been debunked, though I deeply appreciate the mirage theory being so patiently explained to me.

Thank you for the reference!

AB

a reply to: AboveBoard

If you can cope with British scepticism, and I think you can, Shough's a master of it.

He's got the rare ability to leave some cases as inconclusive.

a reply to: Kandinsky

Ah, British skepticism is an art-form. Yes, I can handle it. I will just imagine it with an appropriate accent and demeanor to make it more fun. I will gird my loins...



- AB

ETA: I love it... (from your link - I have a very distinguished sounding English gentleman's voice in my head narrating it...quite enjoyable, actually!)

So there is still a need for a rigorous re-examination of what Arnold said he saw, as well as a mature understanding of the ways in which his story reflected, and was reflected by, the contemporary culture. Obviously no individual analyst can hope to have the 'final word' in such a complex and difficult area. It is an ongoing project, in which the present study is offered as a contribution. Inevitably many of the issues addressed here have been broached by others; but not always fairly, and, when fairly, not always thoroughly or in an integrated way. I hope the reader will also find some fresh perspectives here on what remains a fascinating historical mystery.

originally posted by: AboveBoard

I'm also confused as to why there would be a corroboration from on the ground by the prospector and 16 other sightings that day besides Arnold. If it were JUST Arnold, and no one saw them fly by overhead, then I'd be more likely to consider the mirage explanation.

Nothing in the mirage examples you given me are looking or behaving like the objects he sighted, along with these other witnesses.

I'm perplexed as to how the mirage example can still hold up under all the other evidence. ???

I would say Your input in this thread is invaluable AB.

You have obviously done the homework on the case, asked reasonable questions and come to reasonable conclusions, beyond a reasonable doubt. (to reasonable people of course)


The 16 other sightings that day you mention above are a great point relevant to the case, that I didn't even bring up but alluded to with reference to all the sightings for that whole year.

I'm betting with your inquisitive and thorough nature you also familiarized yourself with all the sightings listed so far in my Roswell thread.


What I now find hilariously ironic is that with all these sightings occurring all year nationwide, when one finally 'crashes' it turns out we are told was a weather balloon?? Really?

After first being told it was a flying disc?

Quite odd isn't it.

Odd out of character behaviour for the military to voluntarily offer up publicly anything of an advanced technology secret nature at any time, for any reason actually.

It turns out the real reason for the "RAAF Captures Flying Saucer" headline and accompanying story about the Brazel ranch, was lo focus all attention to the debris field since the story was already leaking out though several civilian sources, to divert attention while they scrambled to secure and remove the actual crash site.

The military was privy at that time to the information of how many Russian spies had penetrated our country, (and were thick in NM for obvious reasons) and decided that was the best course to contain a high risk situation they didn't want Russians or even the American public to know about.

They already knew from the previous performance reports alone, that they had something big.

a reply to: KandinskyShough demolishes the mirage hypothesis as far as I am concerned.

originally posted by: jclmavg
a reply to: KandinskyShough demolishes the mirage hypothesis as far as I am concerned.

Shough needs to read the article the University of Alaska wrote which I posted here. That article shows that some mirage images are not stable, which contradicts Shough's assumption that they must be stable. Of course some actually are stable, but Shough is wrong to assume that all are.

Not this utter piffle about the Hortons again?

Roy Chadwick who designed the Avro Vulcan has made it plain that his inspiration for the design came from plans he received of German prototypes and that, those plans were freely available to anyone who wanted them in the aviation industry. The Horton glider note it was a glider no engines, the only prototypes with engines were destroyed in a bombing raid by the British during WW2, was mothballed and stuck on public display in part of the Smithsonian to be rediscovered in the early 1960s by a bunch of techies charged with the initial development of s stealth craft.

Both of the Horton brothers were freely available to chat to, one joined the reformed Luftwaffe the other , from memory, ended up losing a pot full of cash with some attempt to set up an aviation design and production business in South America. There was never anything secret, post WW2 about the Horton designs and those who desperately try to claim there was are just feeding you bad information.

The biggest myth about the Arnold sighting is simply that, he was the first post world war two, to report a sighting to the military, he wasn't, On the same day Arnold had his encounter , some hours previously, a member of the public from Washington state, had reported a strikingly similar description of unknown aircraft to the military, to those Arnold saw.

Some of the utter whibble that the sceptics come out with is world class and would do Greer justice. So let me get this right, post WW2 the Yanks built these incredibly advanced designs in some numbers and then thought when it came to Korea, "You know what, we'll give those commies chance by using the outdated Lockheed P90s against them".

Which leads us onto another myth endlessly perpetrated by sceptics and others. That America led the way in terms of design and development in airframes post WW2 they didn't, the Yank model was primarily based on price and numbers over quality. If anyone was developing secret highly advanced designs it was probably the Brits, the French or the Russkis. A classic case in point is the B52 versus the Avro Vulcan, spot which one was basically a second world war bomber with jet engines and which one could out turn and out manoeuvre virtually any jet fighter at high altitudes?

Ergo and this was part of the American military's paranoia with regards to UFOs , they were to man in the higher echelons, always worried that UFOs were either Russki or British'?French/Canadian because, they knew full well that, their own secret testing programmes weren't really producing anything of any note.

That is exactly how the American military responded to Arnold's report..... "Dayum, were they Russkis, or have those pesky Brits been secretly developing stuff at Avro in Canada/" because, they knew full well they were not their own.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: jclmavg
a reply to: KandinskyShough demolishes the mirage hypothesis as far as I am concerned.

Shough needs to read the article the University of Alaska wrote which I posted here. That article shows that some mirage images are not stable, which contradicts Shough's assumption that they must be stable. Of course some actually are stable, but Shough is wrong to assume that all are.

It's not gonna fly, you've been peddling mirages for years now on this forum. Yawn. Shough is way more capable than you, but if you feel he is mistaken take it up with him directly.

originally posted by: jclmavg
It's not gonna fly, you've been peddling mirages for years now on this forum. Yawn. Shough is way more capable than you, but if you feel he is mistaken take it up with him directly.

You make it sound like I came up with the mirage explanation, but I didn't. That was the official explanation. I'm not sure that's what it was, all I'm saying it's not only plausible but Shough's argument supposedly eliminating the mirage possibility can be refuted by reading the university of Alaska article, which I also didn't write. So it's not about me and what I'm "peddling", these are other sources which yuou haven't even addressed. If Shough posts here and wants to discuss it I'll be glad to discuss it with him.

---

June 28 1947 - Pendleton, Oregon

Boise, Idaho Statesman 6/28/47


Harassed Saucer-Sighter Would Like to Escape Fuss

PENDLETON June 28 (UP) -- Kenneth Arnold said today he would like to get on one of his 1200-mile-an-hour "flying saucers," and escape from the furor caused by his story of mysterious aircraft flashing over southern Washington.

"I haven't had a moment of peace since I first told the story," the 32-year-old Boise, Idaho, business man-pilot sighed...

"This whole thing has gotten out of hand," Arnold went on. "I want to talk to the FBI or someone."

"Half the people I see look at me as a combination Einstein, Flash Gordon, and screwball. I wonder what my wife back in Idaho thinks."

WON'T CHANGE MIND

But all the hoopla and hysterics haven't caused Arnold to change his mind or back down. He doesn't care if the experts laugh him off. He said most of his aviator friends tell him that what he saw were probably either one of two things: new planes or guided missiles still in the United States Army air forces' secret category. Some theorized they were experimental equipment of another nation, probably Russia.

"Most people," he said, "tell me I'm right."



(His sighting was the first to receive national media attention in more than 150 newspapers, being treated as a serious news story, due to the fact that he was an experienced mountain flyer, a licensed air rescue pilot, a deputy sheriff, and respected businessman.)


But Arnold was not the only pilot to see Flying Saucers that year.

Starting halfway down the page at this link I have listed several more -

www.abovetopsecret.com...