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THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES /30-40 PERCENT POPS/ BEING WEST OF THE I-35. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHILE A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS. WITH MUCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND 40-50 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SOME SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN /60 TO 80 PERCENT POPS/ NORTHWEST OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO GAINESVILLE LINE. RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AS PWATS REACH 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. WE WILL CONSIDER ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS.
Here's how it works: an area of high pressure aloft will develop and anchor itself near the Great Lakes. This high will be sandwiched between two southward dips in the jet stream, one over the western Atlantic Ocean, and the other over the western United States.
In the Plains, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will be the result of this weather pattern starting Friday.
The omega high over the Great Lakes will block the forward progression of an area of low pressure that forecast to form in the upper atmosphere over the western states. That low will interact with moisture returning north from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to the development of widespread rain and thunderstorms in the Plains.
The greatest threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be along and east of I-35 from San Antonio to Austin. The timing of this threat will be Sunday morning through Monday evening.