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originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: BO XIAN
I sure don't automatically take them as factual.
Nor do I take tales of alien abduction as such.
*ping* gone? Like a magic trick?
Missing: 10/19/73, 2:15 p.m, Little Wenatchee Ridge, Wenatchee Lake, Wenatchee, WA
Age at disappearance: 2
On October 19, 1973, James and Carol Duffy parked their camper and truck in a clear-cut seven miles northeast of Lake Wenatchee in a location known as Little Wenatchee Ridge. While the entire family took a walk around the area of the camper, Little Jimmy Duffy was misbehaving on the hike and Carol Duffy hit her son for not keeping up with the group, per her own statement in sheriff's department reports. The family then headed back to the camper to put the kids down for a nap. Thirty-two-month old Jimmy and eighteen month old Natalie were left in the back of the camper sleeping while James went hunting in the area and Carol took a walk. After fifteen minutes of hunting the nearby clear-cut, James returned to the camper to check on the children and found them still asleep; Carol was still out on her walk but saw James check on the kids. He then circled the clear cut where they were approximately 150 yards from their children, they heard a scream or screech come from the camper. They ran to a spot where they could see the camper and saw the camper door open. The parents ran to their vehicle and found the back door open. Natalie and their two cats were still asleep inside, but Jimmy was nowhere in sight. James immediately checked the Caterpillar tracks beside the clear cut and Carol checked the road. They found nothing. The time at this point was approximately 2:15 pm.
By3:15 p.m. deputies from the Chelan County Sheriff's Office had arrived and already notified SAR personnel. The deputies and forest service employees searched the soft ground near the camper but could not find any prints in the dirt roads that matched the boy's. At 4:20 p.m. James arrived back at the camper from searching and stated that he had not found the boy. At 4:25 p.m deputies re-interviewed Carol and asked her again to explain the circumstances of the disappearance. She did. At 5:00 p.m deputies interviewed James again, and he repeated the circumstances of the boy's disappearance. He stated that the sound he heard coming from the area of the camper could have been something similar to a baby's cry. The following day canines were brought to the location and throughly searched the area. They found nothing. For five days following Jimmy's disappearance, searchers performed a massive grid layout involving more than 150 men, including rescue units, SAR teams, and the sheriff's posse. Helicopters were also brought in to the area to search cliffs and small valleys. The search produced no evidence of Jimmy Duffy's location. At 8:30 p.m on October 24, the lead deputy from Chelan County called James aside. he told James that he didn't believe his story about his son's disappearance and thought the child had never been in the area. He also told James that he thought the child had been accidentally or intentionally killed and disposed of and that his story was a cover up. The deputy then asked him if his wife had a boyfriend to which he replied, "Not that I know of" At 11:30 the following morning, the formal search operations were terminated.
During the extensive follow up conducted by the Chelan County Sheriff's Office, one witness described Jimmy Duffy as "retarded" and with a very frail build. Most of the witnesses stated that they rarely saw the boy outside the Duffy's home. It's obvious from the reports that Chelan County did a very extensive follow up by contacting the Duffy's neighbors, friends, and child protective services. They also attempted to locate evidence of violence against Jimmy, but nothing was found. At one point investigators requested that Carol and James Duffy take a polygraph test. They agreed. Twelve days after their son went missing in the mountains of Washington, James and Carol Duffy were seated in a police interview room taking a polygraph in an effort to clear their names. Polygraph experts from the Seattle Police Dept. were brought in to question the Duffys and administer the polygraph. Both parents took the polygraph simultaneously in different rooms. In a report written by N. Matzke and D. Gillespie of Seattle PD's polygraph unit, they stated the following after interviewing both parents: "Each subject was given a polygraph examination and it is the opinion that Mr. and Mrs. Duffy do not know the whereabouts of their son Jimmy nor did they conspire with each other to cause the disappearance." The passing of the polygraph hopefully focused the Chelan County Sheriff's Office on finding Jimmy rather than building a case against his parents
. . .
Type I errors are equivalent to false positives. Let’s go back to the example of a drug being used to treat a disease. If we reject the null hypothesis in this situation, then our claim is that the drug does in fact have some effect on a disease. But if the null hypothesis is true, then in reality the drug does not combat the disease at all. The drug is falsely claimed to have a positive effect on a disease.
. . .
Type II errors are equivalent to false negatives. If we think back again to the scenario in which we are testing a drug, what would a type II error look like? A type II error would occur if we accepted that the drug had no effect on a disease, but in reality it did.
originally posted by: BO XIAN
a reply to: superman2012
That's not quite what I was talking about.
I'm talking about cases where the toddler is on the trail ahead of the parents. The parents are 8-12 feet behind the toddler. The toddler is in FULL VIEW of the parents--who have their eyes ON the toddler at the moment it happens.
And while in full view of the parents, suddenly the child disappears in thin air--POOF--winks out of this existence, dimension and totally disappears without a trace--very unbelievably and inexplicably--in full view of more than one adult.
Talking 'high strangeness' here.
Yes, the child could have left and been taken by a person or mountain lion, but, with his father being an experienced search and rescue worker along with the 100+ people that joined the search, they would have found evidence of an attack or something to indicate which way the boy went.
Other than a high quality PhD in ClinicalPsychology and 30+ years of counseling and teaching?
originally posted by: BO XIAN
a reply to: superman2012
There aren't many such stories. Probably less than 5.
However, I think they give a clue as to the level of 'high strangeness' involved in the 411 cases.
. . . and maybe a clue to the capabilities of whatever is doing such stuff.