Iraqi Govt - Will It Succeed?

With the Jan 30 elections coming up, what do you all think about the Iraqi govt succeeding in establishing a grasp on the country? Or will it fall prey to insurgency, anti-Coaltion, anti-US groups with constant attacks on the US, MNF, Iraqi state official, police, guardsmen and innocent civilians in attempt to over throw the govt?

We will have to see, but I suspect trouble on that day.

Will it work? In a word, no (unless you count a radical change to the form of government we approve of that might be like the old one). I don't know if that will happen, but election day there does seem to be the target for some serious backlash.

They have had quite a while to plan for it after all.

The only way the government in Iraq become a success is if the people in Iraq is allowed to take responsibility for their own country as long as is outside influences they will keep on fighting each other and the US.

of corse it will the united state say it will

The only way it will work is if the Iraqis manage to form effective security forces to protect their country from all outside influences. They have a long way to go until that goal is reached. And while that is happening, the gov't must not fall to radical islamo-terrorists. Quite the challenge, if you ask me.

Which brings up another question: will Iraq be permitted to rebuild it's military? If so, I'll bet that most of their weapons will be stamped "Made in The USA".

Originally posted by jsobecky
Which brings up another question: will Iraq be permitted to rebuild it's military? If so, I'll bet that most of their weapons will be stamped "Made in The USA".

No really good choice there. With the condition of the country, I would hate to see them build up a military, much less one backed by a country other than the US. But not being allowed to build up a military was one of the contributing factors to Hitler's rise, and would probably make the Iraqi's resentful and have others complaining about it.

Does anyone want it to succeed?

I do. A government representing the people of Iraq would be a step in the right direction from what they have now and better than the previous leader Saddam.

Of course there are potential pitfalls with acceptance of the newly elected government, a US backed government, and islamic terrorists/insurgents. One of the main things to remember is that one of the reasons the groups are having any impact in Iraq is because the people are angry and frustrated at the US. If the people begin to turn the blame game on the terrorists/insurgents then the situation in Iraq changes drastically. Therefore, I believe if the newly elected government is accepted and able to help focus the anger and frustations off of the US and into rebuilding the country, the country has great potential.

In the medium-long term the Iraqi government will fail because power was handed over to the interim Iraqi far to soon. If that wasnt enough Bush and his croines are taking short cuts and everyone knows expect them that when you take short cuts the problem only gets worse in the long term.

I think it depends entirely on whether enough Iraqis are able/allowed to vote that they feel it is THEIR government. If that happens it will last. However, if too many are driven and/or just stay away from the voting centers, the people will feel that the government does not really represent the whole country and it will fall in short order.

Which brings up another question: will Iraq be permitted to rebuild it's military? If so, I'll bet that most of their weapons will be stamped "Made in The USA".

In all actuality, in the first Gulf War, half of Iraq's arsenal was US equipment, however it was up to date, one of the other reasons why that war was a success quickly, we supplied them with half of it in the late 70's early 80's.

True. I don't think there's any question that the US will be selling arms to them, if their military is rebuilt. The trick is to keep from arming another Saddam.

Whic means that we are there to stay for quite a while yet, although hopefully not in such large numbers.

If the US goes, then yes it will succeed because it will be a true democracy. Sooner the US move, then Iraq might settle down. Iraq needs freedom.

Exactly infinite, but for some reason Allawi's pass is not what people may think he is in pursue of total power and he will be nice to the US as long as he is held in power, onces US leave I see many rules coming and going in that country and a lot struggle for power.

Why? because the oil Iraq holds will make many to greedy to care about the people.

Originally posted by mscbkc070904
With the Jan 30 elections coming up, what do you all think about the Iraqi govt succeeding in establishing a grasp on the country? Or will it fall prey to insurgency, anti-Coaltion, anti-US groups with constant attacks on the US, MNF, Iraqi state official, police, guardsmen and innocent civilians in attempt to over throw the govt?

I would say only time will tell. If they elect a person the majority support and assuming he is not a radical, I would say yes.

[edit on 1/16/2005 by shots]

If America stays, then Iraq will be a coloney under US control. This cannot work because after a while the people would want freedom and control of their own land. Can you blame them for wanting freedom?

there is no such thing as iraqi govt, its a ficitonal representation of the US authority. if the iraqis had it there way the insurgance would be the govt, those with the most determination and honor fought the hardest to drive the occupiers from their land. who are now dead. islam and democracy do not mix, just why do you think the US govt is now building 13 permanent military bases in iraq? how can democracy work when any and all resistance is met with 50 cal?

You think there will be 1 Iraq after all of the violence between factions?

There will be 3:

Kurdistan will become independent from the insanity of Iraq and will succeed as a democracy if Turkey doesn't crush them.

The Shi'ah will have their theocracy, which will be heavily influenced by Iran, they'll probably be a little better off than most middle eastern nations.

The Sunnis are doomed to be ruled by terror and trickery.

You can't very well have a successful government if the people you are trying to govern are rebelling. The U.S. version of Iraqi democracy will not succeed. What will take its place will be more akin to traditional forms of government in the area. At least if the violence ever dies down.

Kurdistan will become independent from the insanity of Iraq and will succeed as a democracy if Turkey doesn't crush them.

The Kurds will not become an independent, however they will become a independent province with self rule, but under Iraqi govt, thats what they want, basically to be recognized, sort of like a state that governs itself. And what do you expect, after the strife they went thru in 1988, they know there is change coming, anything better than what it was before.

The Shi'ah will have their theocracy, which will be heavily influenced by Iran, they'll probably be a little better off than most middle eastern nations.

This is nothing new anyhow, there has always been Iranian influence before the Saddam regime and even now, but a new govt will hopefully weed that political insurgency out. Iran needs to keep its hands out of Iraq before it gets bitten off and I am not referring to the US as the bog that bites that hand...

The Sunnis are doomed to be ruled by terror and trickery.

Hmmm, ruled by terror, the Sunnis are the problem there, and they ruled and created the terror for over 30 yrs in Iraq. Hell, the Sunnis wrote the book on terror and trickery in that country. What comes around goes around, if thats what happens there.

Overall, all factions there need to work hand in hand no matter what their differences are. If they dont, they will be the result of their actions for not doing so.