Trump and the now hollow threat of running as Independant

So Trump has repeatedly threatened to run as an independent during his campaign.

The threat is that if the GOP does not give him what he thinks is a "fair shake" then he will take his voting base independent...voters that would theoretically otherwise vote for the GOP Nominee...thus stripping the GOP Nominee of enough votes so that they would have little to no chance of winning a general election.

The RNC has thus far been handling Trump carefully under this threat, repeatedly trying to assure him that he will get a "fair shake" while at the same time mobilizing forces to defeat him before the convention.

I learned something interesting recently...There are deadlines associated with running as an independent. And those deadlines are closing in on Trump.

A candidate needs to declare themselves independent for EACH STATE and gather the necessary signatures in each state ...by certain dates...otherwise they will not be put on the General Election Ballot in that state.

The first state deadline isn’t until May 9 in Texas, which requires roughly 80,000 signatures for ballot access.
The next deadline is in North Carolina on June 9th, where 90,000 signatures are required.
The bulk of states have an August or September deadline, with various signature requirements or filing fines.

www.realclearpolitics.com...

So...If Trump wanted to be on the ballot in Texas as an independent, he has a month to declare as an independent, put together a ground-force to gather 90k signatures and file. Followed quickly by North Carolina with June 9th deadline.

Various campaign people have admitted that Trump has virtually no state-level campaign infrastructure in place..So even if he decided to run as an independent today...he could not put together a team in TX and get it done in a matter of weeks.

I believe this was part of the RNCs stop-Trump strategy....placate him with semi-false promises...making him believe that he could receive the nomination at the convention...until it became impossible for him to run as an independent.

From a strategic standpoint, this means Trumps path to nomination is all or nothing at a brokered convention....and he needs first ballot to win, because if he doesn't get 1237 on the first vote, most delegates are no longer bound to vote for how their constituents voted.

Bottom line...Trump has been cornered by the RNC...and for all practical purposes an independent bid has been taken off the table.

however, he could take his base and tell them all to basically not vote due to corruption, or go 180 and back hillary just for the purposes of sending a message to the RNC and suck it up for 4 years.

Its best not to underestimate his petty vindictive nature.

Trump has been treated like shift by the media and the GOP...you can see how the world is full of @ssh0les. I wouldn't be surprised, and in fact I think it would be better if Trump left the "Gutless 'Ol Party"

a reply to: Indigo5

I wish that such a lack of ground level infrastructure was an issue for a man like Trump, but that guy can mobilise any number of people he needs to, out of his own pocket, to do anything he needs done. We are talking about a guy who could hire and deploy a small army without taking out a loan.

Underestimating the beastly oaf would be an error, in my estimation.

originally posted by: SaturnFX
however, he could take his base and tell them all to basically not vote due to corruption, or go 180 and back hillary just for the purposes of sending a message to the RNC and suck it up for 4 years.

Its best not to underestimate his petty vindictive nature.

Or he could still run as an independent whether he's on every ballot or not.

He still has time though. 80,000 signatures could be acquired in Texas in a few days -- probably even one day if he put enough people on it or found a good venue to collect many at once.

ETA: All but seven states allow a write-in vote, too, BTW.

And, in Ohio (specifically mentioned in your link to RCP), he would just have to file a letter of intent by August 28. Texas' write-in deadline is August 22.

a reply to: MotherMayEye

The issue is that NY is up next April 19th...He will win NY on April 19th

On April 26th...Conn Del Maryland PA RI
He will do reasonably well on the East Coast vs Cruz

He doesn't have contests on the west coast (where he will know for certainty if he has a chance at 1237) until mid may and june.

So...it's hard for him to go independent with NY on the table and some other encouraging polls on the east coast.

He would have to declare independent during a winning streak on the east coast in order to get on the ballot in time in TX.

And 80k signatures...which will be thoroughly challenged by GOP and Dems...will be a very heavy lift on very short notice.

He gets a few thousand at his rallies...but 80k means aggressive door to door operations and he doesn't even have a ground team in place in TX...and Trump Supporters don't strike me as the kind to knock on doors of their neighbors...

I don't see it happening in the next few weeks.

An independent bid is off the table in my strong opinion.

I heard a montage the other day of Trump saying "unfair" through out his campaign , it was like a full 3 min long.

Let him go 3rd party, the same will happen as it would if he was nominated, Clinton will get the office, that IS the end game.

Im so sick and tired of hearing this 5yr old complain and whine, and make threats, and throw tantrums and make fun of people.
It saddens me to no end, to see the people of the US actually fall for this drivel, this buffoon who cannot keep his story straight in some cases LITERALLY 10 min apart.

If there has ever been doubt that the dumbing down of the population is a thing? Just look at this current election cycle, it should be hardcore proof of such.
Perhaps there IS something to the fluoride.

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: MotherMayEye

The issue is that NY is up next April 19th...He will win NY on April 19th

On April 26th...Conn Del Maryland PA RI
He will do reasonably well on the East Coast vs Cruz

He doesn't have contests on the west coast (where he will know for certainty if he has a chance at 1237) until mid may and june.

So...it's hard for him to go independent with NY on the table and some other encouraging polls on the east coast.

He would have to declare independent during a winning streak on the east coast in order to get on the ballot in time in TX.

Just as you posted this I edited my last comment to mention that all but seven states allow write-in votes even if a name doesn't appear on the ballot. Thirty-five require some paperwork though.

If Trump breaks from the party, I would think it would be a result of a certain contested/brokered convention. That's not certain, at this point. I think it remains to be seen what will happen. But I find it odd that the candidates have abandoned those loyalty pledges as of last week.

I really really cant stand trump.......but is it wrong I get a guilty thrill out of him trashing and crapping over the corrupt us election and party system?

a reply to: Indigo5

I think the disconnect between your thinking and mine is that I think Trump intends to sabotage his campaign whether he stays with the GOP or goes independent *too late*.

I don't think being too late to win would stop him. I think he would prefer it that way.

If the convention picks somebody besides Trump, I would write him in, even if he does not get on the ballot as Independent.
Might as well, because I would never vote for a Republican again.

The thing is a "fair shake" would me if Trump goes into the convention with the most delegates he should be the nominee. If the Republican convention strips him of the nomination because "rules are rules" and he doesn't have enough delegates to secure the nomination, then he isn't getting a fair shake.

If the convention came down to Rubio, Bush, or Cruz, whoever had the most delegates would win the nomination whether they had enough delegates or not rules or no rules.

So he'd basically tear up his signed pledge not to run as an independent?

Who would want a guy that'll break his own promises when it suits his agenda?

originally posted by: MystikMushroom
So he'd basically tear up his signed pledge not to run as an independent?

Who would want a guy that'll break his own promises when it suits his agenda?

Well, he never made that pledge to begin with: Link: Trump backdated his loyalty pledge by a month

a reply to: MystikMushroom

Who'd want a guy like 10% Fair Tax Cruz as a president?

Besides, Trump is completely vindicated when the Republican establishment is waging an open war against him and many of the people in the party have said they don't won't him as the nominee, going as far as the possibility of a brokered convention.

If Trump leads in delegates he should get the nomination, shouldn't matter if he has the 1237 or whatever the number of delegates it is. If Trump was a Republican establishment darling it wouldn't be an issue.

The GOP are cooking their own goose. Either way, Trump nor Cruz will gather enough votes to defeat either democratic candidate.

originally posted by: SaturnFX
however, he could take his base and tell them all to basically not vote due to corruption, or go 180 and back hillary just for the purposes of sending a message to the RNC and suck it up for 4 years.

Its best not to underestimate his petty vindictive nature.

I am going to be painfully blunt (for some)..

Trump in a general election can not win...this isn't my bias...it is the reality of demographics he has offended/alienated both conservative and democrat...it is a statistical reality.

Cruz vs. Hillary will be a contest of who the middle and independents dislike more...and people dislike Cruz more..

Hillary has a 3-5 point lead on Cruz in a general election...and frankly I see that growing come debates..

What the RNC is doing is trying to salvage the party's reputation by denying Trump the nomination and heading off down-ticket losses in the House and Senate. The RNC does not think Cruz will win...and they might not even want him to win...they just want Trump gone.

If Trump just up and left it would solve some of the GOP currents problems. 25% of GOP voters say they would leave with Trump that is about the same percentage that say they would leave the GOP if Trump gets the nomination. That number would be more than made up by picking up Democrats and Independents if the GOP put in a moderate candidate at the Convention. They still however have to get around Cruz to do that. If you drive away Trump and Cruzs supporters your talking about half the GOP and that means you end up just as bad as you were with Trump as you candidate. Short term it is a mess no matter what happens.

Long term however if Trump left he would quickly become irreverent and if they left Cruz in and he took a bad beating he would also become irreverent. That would give the DNC 4 years of dominance but, long term you remove the two people that make the GOP unacceptable by most of America. With them gone and some smart PR moves they could be back in the game in 8 years. And they do not have people bringing up for the next 50 years that Trump was once their candidate for President.

Will it happen? Doubtful.

I really hope Trump keeps them all distracted long enough and then as soon as he hits the general election, he starts reminding America that 88% of them are up for reelection and now would be a good time for America to replace almost 90% of them.

a reply to: Indigo5

Maybe he's already got the signatures just in case.

Seems reasonable.