Wisconsin GOP Primary : Why is it being pushed as a make or break?

a reply to: onequestion

Does he though?

I mean he is pretty terrific at putting his name on big gaudy buildings and earning a return on his inheritance at just about the rate of interest.

There is a lot of mythology at play here. This works because people are stupid and their input/output model is fundamentally flawed.

This is from the latest Wisconsin poll from CBS/YouGov.
It makes very interesting reading in that Trump wins on most of the key issues, yet is behind 43 to 37 go Cruz in terms of intended votes. It shows quite clearly that other factors are driving the decision making. Personal as opposed to political reasoning.

This is the kind of data that Trump's campaign should be taking notice of. they are losing Wisconsin themselves. Voters even believe he has a better chance of beating Hillary in the general than other candidates.

New Emerson poll in Wisconsin
Cruz 40 Trump 35. Getting a little closer.
This one is all voters including independents...

a reply to: UKTruth


You really need to look at all the numbers from the poll you cited..

www.cbsnews.com...

originally posted by: Indigo5
a reply to: UKTruth


You really need to look at all the numbers from the poll you cited..

www.cbsnews.com...

Firstly, that is not the latest poll i cited.
I cited the Emerson poll.

Secondly I have already looked through the CBS poll, hence posting some of the policy data above.

Finally,
A new poll is now out , the ARG poll shown on Real Clear Politics and contributing to the averages that has shown a massive swing to Trump.
He leads Cruz 42 to 32 in this poll... now the very latest. I am wondering if this is off - its very different. If this is true then either Trump being in Wisconsin, the blatant nature of the GOP throwing the fact they are going to choose the nominee in the face of the public, or perhaps the bias media coverage is having an effect.

Latest ARG Poll

There is something very suspicious going on here... I found this reported yesterday...



Nothing about it since...

originally posted by: UKTruth


Finally,
A new poll is now out , the ARG poll shown on Real Clear Politics and contributing to the averages that has shown a massive swing to Trump.
He leads Cruz 42 to 32 in this poll... now the very latest. I am wondering if this is off - its very different. If this is true then either Trump being in Wisconsin, the blatant nature of the GOP throwing the fact they are going to choose the nominee in the face of the public, or perhaps the bias media coverage is having an effect.

Latest ARG Poll

Very Off...
After researching ARG Polling I am kind of surprised RCP posted it.

ajacksonian.blogspot.com...

ARG Recently had Kasich at 15% and Cruz behind him at 14% in South Carolina...
For the record Kasich got 7% and Cruz got 22% of South Carolina!

Crazy: Latest ARG SC Primary Poll Still Has Kasich Ahead Of Cruz; Jeb Fading
www.redstate.com...

Then in Michigan ARG called it as this...
• John Kasich: 33 percent
• Donald Trump: 31 percent
• Ted Cruz: 15 percent
• Marco Rubio: 11 percent

www.newsmax.com...

When the results were this..
Trump 36%
Cruz 24%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 9%

The folks at the Mysterious ARG polling seem to be either drinking a lot or just making up numbers...or perhaps both.

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth


Finally,
A new poll is now out , the ARG poll shown on Real Clear Politics and contributing to the averages that has shown a massive swing to Trump.
He leads Cruz 42 to 32 in this poll... now the very latest. I am wondering if this is off - its very different. If this is true then either Trump being in Wisconsin, the blatant nature of the GOP throwing the fact they are going to choose the nominee in the face of the public, or perhaps the bias media coverage is having an effect.

Latest ARG Poll

Very Off...
After researching ARG Polling I am kind of surprised RCP posted it.

ajacksonian.blogspot.com...

ARG Recently had Kasich at 15% and Cruz behind him at 14% in South Carolina...
For the record Kasich got 7% and Cruz got 22% of South Carolina!

Crazy: Latest ARG SC Primary Poll Still Has Kasich Ahead Of Cruz; Jeb Fading
www.redstate.com...

Then in Michigan ARG called it as this...
• John Kasich: 33 percent
• Donald Trump: 31 percent
• Ted Cruz: 15 percent
• Marco Rubio: 11 percent

www.newsmax.com...

When the results were this..
Trump 36%
Cruz 24%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 9%

The folks at the Mysterious ARG polling seem to be either drinking a lot or just making up numbers...or perhaps both.

Yes - I think this is probably an outlier... having said that though the PPP/Marquette and Fox polls have also been out in a few states. Marquette is the one that had Cruz ahead by 10 a couple of days ago. Going to be interesting, but if Cruz does not win , he's done. It will be game over.

This link gives poll ratings:

fivethirtyeight.com...

Here are a few more polls - more than on RCP.



A lot of the news cycles have rehashed the Cruz +10 from the end of March but looks a bit narrower when you look broadly at a few polls over time and take into account early April polls

Wait, that's nuts. RCP has a Wisconsin poll by Emerson that has Cruz leading by 5%, but the ARG poll has Trump leading in the state by 10%.

a reply to: AngryCymraeg

PPP has +1 Cruz
Gravis has +3 Cruz
Optimus +2 Trump
FOX + 10 Cruz
Marquette + 10 Cruz
ARG + 10 Trump

LOL - mixed bag to say the least.

I learned today that the same pollsters who predicted that Governor Scott Walker would be "re-called" from office, are predicting that Ted Cruz will win in Wisconsin tomorrow. There was a total of 3 official actions to have Scott Walker kicked out of his job as Governor of Wisconsin. The pollsters were wrong on all 3 occasions.

Wisconsin people are smart and savvy when it comes to understanding how to lead these annoying pollsters astray.

Also, I see that Wisconsin's Republican Primary is a "Hybrid". (ref: www.bustle.com... -season ) Neither Donald or Ted can win all 42 delegates. Actually, when it comes down to the raw numbers, it doesn't matter which of these two candidates wins, does it? Forty-two delegates split 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, etc.. is such a small number, that it's inconsequential in affecting this race to the finish line.

originally posted by: carewemust
I learned today that the same pollsters who predicted that Governor Scott Walker would be "re-called" from office, are predicting that Ted Cruz will win in Wisconsin tomorrow. There was a total of 3 official actions to have Scott Walker kicked out of his job as Governor of Wisconsin. The pollsters were wrong on all 3 occasions.

Wisconsin people are smart and savvy when it comes to understanding how to lead these annoying pollsters astray.

Also, I see that Wisconsin's Republican Primary is a "Hybrid". (ref: www.bustle.com... -season ) Neither Donald or Ted can win all 42 delegates. Actually, when it comes down to the raw numbers, it doesn't matter which of these two candidates wins, does it? Forty-two delegates split 50/50, 60/40, 70/30, etc.. is such a small number, that it's inconsequential in affecting this race to the finish line.

Well its a winner takes most state. It is possible to get all 42. If Cruz were to win every district by just 1 vote he would end up with 8 votes more statewide (there are 8 districts). This would mean he would get all 42 delegates with just those 8 votes more.

Looking like very string turn out in Milwaukee and just heard there is a 100% increase in absent ballot votes in Milwaukee also. All good news for Cruz, who leads big in this area of Wisconsin...

Well..I hope everyone is prepared for the world to come to an end, if Trump loses Wisconsin tonight. That's what the pea-brains on MSNBC and CNN are predicting.

originally posted by: carewemust
Well..I hope everyone is prepared for the world to come to an end, if Trump loses Wisconsin tonight. That's what the pea-brains on MSNBC and CNN are predicting.

Lol yes - big win for Cruz last night. Looks like 36 of the 42 delegates.
Probably means a brokered convention, but we'll see what happens in NY. One thing is for sure the intensity of the anti-Trump media machine will continue all the way to the NY primary to lift Cruz there as much as possible. We'll see if Trump can avoid putting his foot in his mouth!

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: Indigo5

originally posted by: UKTruth


Finally,
A new poll is now out , the ARG poll shown on Real Clear Politics and contributing to the averages that has shown a massive swing to Trump.
He leads Cruz 42 to 32 in this poll... now the very latest. I am wondering if this is off - its very different. If this is true then either Trump being in Wisconsin, the blatant nature of the GOP throwing the fact they are going to choose the nominee in the face of the public, or perhaps the bias media coverage is having an effect.

Latest ARG Poll

Very Off...
After researching ARG Polling I am kind of surprised RCP posted it.

ajacksonian.blogspot.com...

ARG Recently had Kasich at 15% and Cruz behind him at 14% in South Carolina...
For the record Kasich got 7% and Cruz got 22% of South Carolina!

Crazy: Latest ARG SC Primary Poll Still Has Kasich Ahead Of Cruz; Jeb Fading
www.redstate.com...

Then in Michigan ARG called it as this...
• John Kasich: 33 percent
• Donald Trump: 31 percent
• Ted Cruz: 15 percent
• Marco Rubio: 11 percent

www.newsmax.com...

When the results were this..
Trump 36%
Cruz 24%
Kasich 24%
Rubio 9%

The folks at the Mysterious ARG polling seem to be either drinking a lot or just making up numbers...or perhaps both.

Yes - I think this is probably an outlier...

Now that reality has weighed in, I would say calling ARG an outlier poll is an understatement.

They were literally off by 23%, having Trump up by 10 points over Cruz when Cruz won by 13 points.

Just a note...In political backing, polls matter. Meaning no one wants to give more money or backing to a losing bet, so candidates sometimes go out to smaller, more questionable polling operations and ask them for a favorable poll...so they can look at their backers and say "see?...we are winning, we just need a little more help"...Reliable, known pollsters will not sell their credibility because they need that credibility for their business...smaller, for profit pollsters will pretty much give you any numbers you ask for. ARG has been highly suspect in past elections and gives little to no transparency on who pays for the poll, their methodology etc. If I had to speculate, the Trump campaign wanted to tamp down the trend of negative numbers on the average polls and went out and bought the ARG poll.